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June 22-28, 2003




Sat, 28 Jun 2003



I know this guy who appears to be a descent trader and has a good system for entrance, exit and money management but when it comes down to actually making money ... it just doesn't happen. he might make money on certain trades but he just gives it back on other trades.

And when he does make money, he pulls it out of his account to spend and therefore his account never grows. After learning about his trading style and observing his trades it appears that on the loosing trades he is deviating from certain rules and fear and greed are getting the best of him.

Or maybe he trades strictly for the rush of it all. it seems that he is his own worst enemy. I conclude that his problems are all psychological. Is there any advice you could give me that would help him out.

And please would you try to refrain from the "try to explore your feelings ..." type of response.


OK. I know a guy who might tell your "friend" to avoid his feelings.


While you are at it, you might also make  sure to avoid experiencing the feelings of not wanting to explore feelings.






Take this simple test to find out if you, too, can survive and prosper without feelings ... which of these are real Spock-isms:


The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few or the one.

The opposite of unity is chaos. 

It ain't easy being green.

You have to chew through a lot of cereal to reach the prize inside.

Live long and prosper.


Clip and Quiz:



Fri, 27 Jun 2003

New to TT - Note on Risk Management

Hi Ed,

I'm new to the team and I want to thank you for taking the time to answer questions and share thoughts re: trading / life / etc. Rarely do we find inspiration commingled with information. Unfortunately it seems that self-indulgence is often quick to follow financial success. I am grateful that you are sharing your insights with others.

I read the risk management paper and - as you asked for suggestions - I do have one thing to suggest: In the caption for Figure 8, you make reference to Figure 1. I believe you may have meant to make reference to Figure 4. That's all --- sorry to pick on details.

I live in Atlanta and would be interested in starting a TT group here. I will contact you further very soon.

Thanks again for your generosity with your time.

Thank you for reading carefully.


The item now stands with your correction.



FAQ Award of Excellence


for careful reading





Fri, 27 Jun 2003

Trading Tribe


I it is amazing the amount of mental gyrations that preceded this email! (and continue as I write this, perhaps a catharsis is near...ah ha!)

Since I feel the urge to make myself out to be an intellectual, I'll start with a brilliant opener that will endear you to me immediately and cause the secrets to easy profits to fall into my lap.

Then, without a pause, I'll give insight that will liberate dozens of your readers instantly; causing further accolades to fall into my lap!

Perhaps, once my fame and fortune spread far and wide, I'll settle back and write my memoirs ...

Then again, I'd just come across as a neophyte if I did that, obviously trying to impress someone who has achieved success ... Perhaps grasping at straws, the cry of a drowning man...

Or maybe if I waxed poetic, looking into the abyss whirling, dashing, falling, crying. Madly casting about rushing fleeing. No.

Then again, I really don't have much useful to say. And, the thoughts cease ... (are you there Fred?)

Should I send what I just wrote? No. That would be stupid. I'd look immature, I want to impress!

What on earth am I saying? I think I'm just wasting this man's time ... How do I say it ... Desperation... Frustration... Motivation...

I want to trade well. I want to make money to do things: help, care for family, what else...why? (oops) My sister in a wreck, lying on her side, asleep. I'm three. I can't wake her up and she needs me to take care of her, my father says. Sadness, almost tears... Silence.

So... Should I send it?

I've traded well and not so well. I've lost money. Can I do it, can I trade?

Man this is really sounding dumb.

What am I feeling ... Not scared, unsure, questions, fear of the unknown. But I have a system and back test data ... What am I feeling? (Fred?)

Dry mouth, tightness in the chest, confusion (confusing questions).

I am afraid of losing money. I'm 9 or so. I lost a $20 bill. My mother telling me I can't have a toy. I'm really upset about that twenty bucks!

What do I do? Can I do this while I'm in a trade? What the heck does this have to do with trading?

At least it's not feeling dumb anymore.

Sixth grade. Logic problems. (IQ of 150) NO I CAN'T NAME 50 MAMMALS IN ONE MINUTE!! Sobbing in frustration with more logic cards. Beating my head with my hand. Frustrated. Anger. Growling, lashing out, I want to scream! How do I end this ... I couldn't make it work with Robbin's techniques ... Almost broke ... Failure ... Hollow feeling ... Dispair.

I could probably go on for hours ... If I stare at the send button too long I may delete this.

Should I end it? Should I edit it? What am I doing? I'm maybe 10, a friend of my mother is giving me a ride in a Shelby Cobra. (nice car) He tells me he's a shrink. I say take me back or I'm getting out right here (at the stop light). Cutting things (a chair back) to see how the threads separate. Lying, often. Embellishing stories, I want to impress. I really don't want to talk to that shrink! Father left, I'm 3. My sister is dead and I'm sitting on my mom's knee sobbing.

I can't believe I'm still going ... Is he going to care? Anxiety. I probably should delete this message. I don't want to seem desperate. Maybe if I carefully craft the message, he'll feel sorry for me. Ah! The valiant hero that dies trying to rescue the princess. Laughter, crying. Then, nothing. My head itches ... I close my eyes feeling light headed. I feel suspended ...

Should I send it? I feel rested ... Satisfied? ... I guess that's it. Press send before you regret it. (Fred?)

Observing feelings is central to TTP.


Your Tribe can help you stay with  feelings (I put these in bold) and forget about the story part (the rest of it).


When you stay with your feelings - such as those around wanting approval, you can convert them from drama producers to drama avoiders.




Do I Dare to Eat a Peach


asks T.S. Eliot's A. Prufrock



Clip: http://cworld.clemson.edu/ Spring2002/3.htm

Fri, 27 Jun 2003



I sent my previous email accidentally before I asked the question.

From experience...

Experiencing feelings really helps, it has helped me start to be rid of some deep feelings of negativity toward myself. As you have stated, there is a process of instantaneous reconciliation between Fred and CM when they first begin to communicate on an issue, it feels like a release.

However, I have found that, for me personally, drama's do not disappear overnight, and experiencing feelings and resolving dramas is not the same as experiencing life continuously (flow).

There also appears to be a reconciliation process that takes time and requires the attention of the mind; recognizing the diversion back to drama, reinstating communication, and bringing the mind back to the present.

This part seems to be the practice, or "where the rubber meets the road." The communication between Fred and CM is a prerequisite to flow, but without the practice, my mind inevitably wanders and strays back into confusion.

So essentially, the mind free of drama, is the mind at the zero point, which is the mind that can focus an intense lazer-like beam of attention at will. Basically, it seems to me at present that AHA's are like qualifying for the Olympics. Qualifying for the Olympics is not the same as running the race and winning the gold.

Is this TTP?

If you have a tendency to send email before finishing writing your letters, you might be careful while using automatic order-entry software.


TTP seems to work best in the setting of an intentional community of say about a half-dozen or dozen members.


Attempts to do it on your own or with one other person may miss much of the benefit of the Tribal context.



Tribe Meeting


part of the deal

is egging each other on.










Fri, 27 Jun 2003


Dear Ed,

From your experiences, can Kelly's rule be applied practically in the markets, since one does not know the future payoffs of one's system? Or is it better to work with a position sizing algorithm that does not require any optimization? I think this issue has been brought up before, but I cannot
find it in the FAQ. Would appreciate any insights on this. Thanks.

Using SVO-p might help you clarify your thinking. 


For example, a lot depends on who is doing the application - and on what someone (perhaps yourself) means by "better."



Lots of Interesting Choices


Determining which one is best

might mostly depend on the viewer.


Clip:  www.rover.at/mg/desktop/xpower-girls.jpg

Thu, 26 Jun 2003

Best Quotations

What are some of the best quotations on trading that you have come across (or made up yourself).

Thank you

The one on the left is pretty good.

Thu, 26 Jun 2003

What can I do?

Hi Mr Ed.

The gentleman who runs the tribe at Portland told me that he can not help me because 1) I don't speak English fluently. 2) I have no experience in trading.

I think that I understand him .

But Mr Ed I got several questions and I hope
you don't mind. Is there something that I can do to get started my own tribe?

Is there somebody that can help me to start trading? If no ... Is there some one that can accept that I open a mini account so I can pay him his fees?

How do the people who can not speak English at all can handle a tribe? Is the experience in trading a requisite in all the tribes? I know that you must be a very busy person, but I do really would appreciate if you answer these questions. Thank you very much.

Best wishes in your personal and business life.

A common language is essential for conducting a Tribe Meeting.  The language need not be English.  You can start your own group in whatever language you like.


See: Tribe - How to Join and Tribe Directory for information on joining and starting Tribes.



Tower of Babel


Clip: www.puzzlehistory.com/babel.jpg

Thu, 26 Jun 2003


Hi Ed,

Thank you for the Tribe. It is an entry into another world.

One member's experience of a high pitched sound in his head at Thursday's meeting makes me recall a meditation I first learned about 30 years ago.

By experimenting with posture, one could tune a high-pitched note above one's left ear.

By breathing in a slow rhythm one could tune another high pitched note above one's right ear.

By listening to both at once, they blended into a third tone, which was the Zero Point, experienced as a vast quiet center within.

* * *

I need to work the Process as much as perfect trading. Designing a trading methodology and keeping it conscious was my focus. You've framed implementation as a solvable process, so the design issues fade a bit by comparison.

Now that some of the darker clouds have cleared in my inner landscape, I see the next step is to code trading methods to determine if I'm operating with optimum profitability. All these years I've used visual pattern inspection. However, just a few brief comments from you have shown my methods need a tune-up, if not major overhaul.

Please excuse if this is beyond the scope of TTP. It certainly is the result of TTP.




Thu, 26 Jun 2003

Progress on Re-Buy

Dear Ed,

I think I am steadily getting cured on my Re-Buy problem. I Repurchased [xxx] a couple of days ago after selling it and am currently in a nice profitable situation.

The stock is right near its old high. I am still working on Risk management. I still am buying too much of one trading vehicle. That problem of mine will end very soon. Thanks.


Thu, 26 Jun 2003

Trading Tribe

Mr. Seykota,

Hello, I was introduced to trend following while reading the Trend Trading Website. I was profoundly changed as my understanding of trend following increased.

My trading and investing style will never be the same, because I now know the secret of the market: that the future is dynamic not static and to be successful one must react to new trends, not attempt to forecast or predict prices.

I would appreciate the opportunity to join the Trading Tribe and look forward to future correspondence.

Many thanks

See how to join, above.

Wed, 25 Jun 2003

Minneapolis Report


We held our first meeting tonight for the Minneapolis Trading Tribe. I was very impressed with the caliber of the attendees. We all seem to be on the same page philosophically with the Trading Tribe Process and look forward to our next meeting when we take our first try at TTP.

Meetings for the Minneapolis Trading Tribe will be held on the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of every month from 7-9pm.


Wed, 25 Jun 2003

It's the tribes move ...


Hello Ed,

If the trading tribe is intending to use chess computers to assist them in the match against me, then I will use one also.

The game would be more "human" and more enjoyable if computers were not used, but I am not one to put myself at a disadvantage by not using a computer myself if you guys are.

So now its a match against the average playing strength of the trading tribes chess computers and perhaps their logic, versus my logic and my pc.

I haven't seen anyone post any comments about the game, so it looks like it hasn't generated much interest and may have to be just you versus me.

Whatever it may be, make your first move!

Regarding the trading tribe, I was still considering whether or not to join one of the existing tribes, or start one of my own, I need to weigh up the finer points before I decide.

I find that the people who I talk to have an affect on my trading, some people can affect my trading adversely if they do not agree with my trading positions or ideas, but contrary to that some people I know can be short while I am long and still not alter my state of mind in the least.

So it would be very important to me to talk at length with other members before joining, or allowing them to join, and I am aware that some people might take offence if I found their company affected my trading.

Don't get me wrong, I love to meet people, and I love to share my experiences and ideas with others, as I love to listen to theirs, but to trade successfully one needs to be "very switched on" and not lacking in any area.

So that's why I am still thinking about the whole issue of trading tribes.

I will let you know.

Knowledge is destroyed by association with the base, With equals, equality is achieved,
And with the distinguished, distinction.

I would have liked to join the Incline village tribe, but I live too far away to attend regularly.

I am well aware that pooled recourses are advantageous Ed, and I talk to some close trading associates very often myself, about all aspects of trading and the psychology surrounding it.

I would like to discuss the procedure involved in starting a tribe with you, if you would be good enough to call me when it is convenient with you.

Being long and short at the same time might indicate multiple personalities.


You may address your questions about starting a tribe to this site.


You can also read the materials at Tribe - How to Join, above.



Two Heads


useful for making sure

at least part of you

is on the right side of the market.




Clip: www.abaxion.com/29565.htm


Wed, 25 Jun 2003

Time Traveler

Not sure this is necessary to put the previous poster's mind at ease (Getting Past the Barriers) in regards to the SEC's "apparent" actions and suspicions ... the alleged time traveler was a hoax.





I keep trying to meet with the guy from the future ... I keep missing him since he keeps showing up tomorrow.


Everybody who has deja-vu about this, raise your hand again.

Wed, 25 Jun 2003


I'm already successful and looking for growth in all areas of my life. The TT and my mission match for some of my elements of success are helping others and letting others help me and a commitment to personal growth.
I'm interested in visiting you, learning from you and starting a new Community.


Thank you.

You might be interested in attending a seminar on TTP later this year.

Wed, 25 Jun 2003


Optimal Bet Sizing

Greetings Mr. Seykota ~

Thank you for the great FAQ forum - I am learning much by reading questions and your responses and comparing my own feelings with others in the forum. In fact, I've noticed something ... some of my most private fears and "quirks" that I used to think were unique to me (as a person and as a novice trader) are actually experienced and shared by quite a few people. Quite a hopeful thing to find out, for sure. I look forward to joining a TT soon.

My question has to do with risk management and bet sizing in regards to trading, Ed. Again, I am a new trader so forgive me if this seems too basic to you or your readers. I've read your page on Risk Management, and it seems that the optimal bet size using several different methods of calculation (including fixed fraction optimizing, calculus and the Kelley Formula) all points towards a figure of 25% for optimal bet size. This to avoid the so-called "timid trader" and "bold trader" fates.


Would I be accurate in saying, from the above example, that the optimal bet size for a $100,000 account would be $25,000? And that RISK is different than bet size in that, although I was entering a position at 25% of my capital funds available for trading, I would want to only risk LOOSING say 1-2% of that bet amount, or $250.00 to $500.00? As you can see, I'm just making sure I grasp the theory correctly.

Have a great week.

The 25% solution is only for a coin that pays 2:1 and comes up with equal heads and tails.


The solution does not consider the dynamics of actual trading or the important effects of drawdowns on traders. 


FAQ does not endorse traders or commercial products, or offer instrument-specific trading advice,

or recommend specific trading system parameters, or tell people what they should do or publish the identity of contributors. See Ground Rules.




A Coin is not a Market

And a Quarter is not always 25%


Clip: www.adventurepostoffice.com/


Wed, 25 Jun 2003



"I am planning a seminar on TTP in general and on receiving in particular, later this year. Meanwhile, you can practice with your Tribe and learn by trial and error."

O.K. I proceed with an intentional community member. We focus on specific elements of feelings so as to fully taste and experience them.

If and when needed I will report you about our progress. Meanwhile I am satisfied with the way we are going.

TTP seems to work best in a Tribal setting with about a half dozen or a dozen members



Chief Lone Wolf


It can be easier

to send and receive

within a tribe.




Tue, 24 Jun 2003


Philadelphia Tribe

Ed Seykota,

Thanks for the Trading Tribe FAQ site. I've been visiting the FAQ for several months and have benefited.

Today was my best visit yet. I've let my friend know that you've linked to one of his network diagrams, which you have labeled "Chess Decision Tree."

I am excited by the work you've done in Lift and Radial Momentum.


I am familiar and sympathetic with the analytical approach you have taken because of my experience with free jets created by injecting pressurized gas through a nozzle into a vacuum.


I learned about free jets from John Fenn, who won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry this year for his work in that field. Your experiments and theoretical framework is a little more challenging because all the pressures are on the order of atmospheric pressure. Good luck with your investigation, and I will alert John to your work in progress.

I am happy and thrilled to experience the feelings of trading tribe, networks, and investigations in radial momentum, all in one afternoon!

I am now enjoying the feeling to write: I would like to establish a Trading Tribe in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.



Philadelphia !


See: Tribe Directory Page




Independence Hall


Clip: www.mosgalleryfineframing.com/




Tue, 24 Jun 2003




I saw a reply you made recently...

"You might focus on the feelings that come up during key points in the cycle, take these into TTP and go for release."

I have doubts maybe you can clear up.

If someone says "I'm feeling X", as I understand TTP, to pace and mirror them
I too need to feel "X".


My question is, how do I create "X" in me? Do I need to know what the person was doing at the time they realized they were feeling "X"? If they say "I'm angry", I can make myself feel angry, but I may be feeling angry about something else totally different - this doesn't seem to be "mirroring".

I can't seem to just "create" the feeling "X" myself out of nothing, I need an experience, or a thought to build on. If its the same experience or thought the person has, then I feel closer to their experience, like I'm identifying with them, in their shoes, so to speak - or if I still am not feeling, then information seems to be missing.


Is this right? For example, having a certain amount of information about their experience, such as "When I'm doing A I think B and feel X" or "When A happens I feel X", then putting myself in their experience, and/or thinking their thought, I get nearer to experiencing "X" for myself. If I can't feel "X", then either I'm doing it wrong (maybe I have a different perspective that means I don't see the issue the same way) or there is still a piece of information missing that would allow me to feel the same way.


This "information" is not feeling related. Its thought or experience based. At this point I can ask "I'm not feeling X yet, what else is happening?" Is this the right way to go about it, or is it getting off focusing on the feeling.

Doing it like this seems natural, but at the same time were getting involved in "content" or "context" and kind of getting off focusing on the pure feeling: the person is telling me what they do to make himself feel X. Is this OK?


Also, the "what else is happening" question doesn't usually lead to a feeling, it leads to "I'm doing A" or "I'm thinking B". As I follow the steps the person takes to make himself feel "X", I too can get close to feeling it, but were not exactly focusing on the feeling anymore ... I'm doing what they are doing to get the same physical symptoms they described in me, or mirror them.


There's more there than just "the feeling". I feel I might be going off at a tangent here.

The reason Im stuck on the "focus on the feeling" is the following - I get the person to describe their feeling "X" by saying "Tell me more about this feeling. Describe it... size, weight, movement, color, etc..." So they describe it. "Its heavy, I feel like a ball in my stomach, etc, etc, etc..."


Then what do I do? I can ask "What else?" They go inside again and try and find more symptoms or physical manifestations of the feeling, perhaps in other parts of their body they were unaware of. Eventually it gets to a point when they've described the feeling as fully as they can and there's nothing more to say about it. What then? TTP session over?

I also notice that the person, as they are focusing on the feeling and describing it to me, is having "thoughts".


These thoughts are visual or auditory, perhaps flashes they can't really make much sense out of. Do I need the person to tell me about them? Are they important? I've also noticed that these "thoughts" may or may not lead to a new, different feeling. I suppose if the feeling "X" changes to "Y" I don't need to know the thoughts, just the new description of "Y" to see where that leads.


But if the feeling remains the same, what then? Do they need to describe these thoughts? Are these thoughts messages from Fred? If they are, I guess they are important. Do I need to help the person make sense out of them by getting a description?

Finally, after a few minutes of feeling and describing the feeling, they may tell me "Its gone now." But there was no "aha" and no release of tension. Its just "faded" away.


That may be cos they've resolved the issue (and perhaps don't know it), or it may be cos they aren't focusing anymore.


The feeling has "escaped". Sometimes it gets to the point you're (at least this happens to me with "deep" stuff) concentrating so hard you just cant "relax" and feel the feeling. It "escapes", or to put it another way, CM manages to keep avoiding feeling it by trying too hard.

Were getting there, but more through persistence than technique, and the more we do, the more questions arise ...

Any suggestions?


As receiver, your mission is to encourage the flow of experience for the sender, from his Fred to his CM.


You do not have to re-create a clone of the sender in yourself, although ongoing awareness of the sender's emotional state can help you stay on task.


If you continue to have a high need to feel what the sender feels, you might at some point, take that need,  into TTP as an issue for yourself.


Receiving seems to be part science and part art. Receivers tend to become more skillful through practice and by observing other skillful receivers.


Receiving, in the TTP sense, seems to lie outside the scope of modern cultural interactions. 


People who study receiving may find it a bit awkward at first. Later they may find it strangely familiar and natural. Eventually they may notice that people do not really receive each other very much in "normal" life.


The cultural lack of opportunities for sending and receiving feelings seems consistent with the existence of societal dramas.


When Fred communicates a feeling, it releases. There may also be an awareness of new insight, such as an aha.


As a receiver, you do not have to pry into the details of your sender's drama or even into the feelings he experiences during TTP. 


TTP can, in this way be quite subtle, confidential and private, even in group setting.


Senders generally emote during the process and may signal their condition with facial expressions, body postures and gestures. 


A skillful receiver can pick up on these cues enough to stay on mission.




Receiving Each Other


Responding to subtle cues,

encouraging the flow,

and not being overly logical



Clip: www.minibite.com/whatif.htm






Tue, 24 Jun 2003

Hello fellow tribe contacts,

This is Amir Shah, the contact person for the Manhattan Tribe in New York. We have had four meetings so far and three smaller ones at my place.


Its Ironic that the reason most of us start a tribe is because we ourselves need help, I believe I am the biggest benedictory of the TTP in our group.

When I was in the process of starting the Manhattan group, I needed a lot of help and support. Jason and Ed played that role. I hope in turn I played a small role in helping other groups get started. During that time I exchanged quite a few emails with other tribe leads, my sense is that we all felt a little isolated. My hope is that this newsletter which I describe below will help foster a sense of community. Knowing that there are others who were equally anxious about having their first meeting as you are today.

What do you think of starting a Bi-monthly Intentional Communities and Tribes Newsletter?


My hope is that this will foster camaraderie and friendship among the various groups around the world. Prod them along to start meetings or prod others sitting on the fence to start groups in their cities.

My thoughts are that this would be a electronic newsletter in PDF format send bi-monthly via email to anyone who wishes to subscribe. This would supplement Ed's FAQ and Certification later this year.

Please let me know what you think?

I am planning a get-together for later this year.

Tue, 24 Jun 2003


I am an equity trader in The Karachi Stock Exchange. I want to Know the procedures to join International Community.

See the Tribe Directory.

Tue, 24 Jun 2003




I currently see last Thursday as the date on your site. Is that correct?

I have no corroborating evidence about your report on your vision.

Mon, 23 Jun 2003



In this paragraph in your excellent essay on risk:

"The PROBABILITY of an event is the likelihood of that event, expressing as the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the number of possible occurrences. So if the coin comes up heads, 50 times out of 100, then the probability of heads is 50%. Notice that a probability has to be between zero (0.0 = 0% = impossible) and one (1.0 = 100% = certain)."

in the second sentence, the logic is wrong. If it's a fair, two-sided coin, the probability is 50%, and the characteristics of the coin are why the probability of heads is 50%. It has nothing to do with how many times out of a hundred heads actually comes up.

By the way, have you read Nassim Taleb's excellent book, Fooled by Randomness?

Life is fundamentally unfair - and that's may be one of the best parts about it.


There is no mention of fairness in the paper, so your premise, if it is fair, is exogenous to the argument and likely arises somewhere in your world view.


The doctrine of fairness, pervasive in our political landscape, attempts to link guilt with success as a way to justify redistribution of assets.


Determination of probabilities by experimentation and simulation generally beats prediction from fundamental characteristics, almost always beats determination by extrapolation of political philosophy.


See George Soros about using political philosophy as an investment analysis tool.




If life were fair, Neo


we'd all occupy the same

location in the Matrix.


Clip: http://perso.club-internet.fr/dito/


Mon, 23 Jun 2003


International Community


I am interested in Joining the International community. I'm from the U.S. however I am currently Staying in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

See the Tribe Directory page.