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 Contributors Say (Quotes from Ed in Red) Ed Says Tuesday, June 29, 2010 Trading Two Losers Ed, Thank you very much for your answer on FAQ. It's OK with me. I understand that periodic alternation of losing system A and losing system B, produce a positive return, because when you move from system A to B, system A don't complete his negative expectation, so you keep, system A profit, and move to system B, then when you have a profit in system B, you move to system A, in order that system B don't complete his negative expectation. (that is the reason, or I didn't understand this paradox? ) But what, I don't understand is for example you have in the roulette: expectation of −2.7%. if you bet red and a expectation is −2.7%. if you bet black   according to this paradox, if you change from bet red to black, you will end making money? How can I apply this theory to a 2 losings systems that have an expectation of −X% ? and if you have 2 wining system with an expectation of +X% periodic alternation also work ? Thank you very much for your help You might consider that the optimal bet size for your system might be 0.0% Monday, June 28, 2010 Wants Clarification Dear Sir, I have read your interview in the Market Wizard and I really believe what you said "Market gives me what I want". I am going through your FAQ in your website  and I am not able to understand by what you have said "The Holy Grail turns out to be a stopwatch". Can you explain me what do you really mean by that Sir? Eagerly waiting for your reply. I wonder if you can identify the item by date and title. Monday, June 28, 2010 Wants to Extend TSP Hi Ed, I see from the FAQ that there is an interest in extending the TSP. I would love to be involved in a collaborative effort extending the TSP. I have completed the exercises some time ago and have submitted results and questions to the TSP when it was active. The optimizations I arrived at used static parameters for the EMA crossover system (80 day slow and 40 day fast) and a bet fraction of 0.005. The system would choose stocks with the fastest moving 40 day EMA (highest derivative). The system works well for me. I would like to extend the system to allow for EMA crossovers and a bet fraction that are specific to an instrument. I have run optimizations that took a few months to complete running 24/7. After burning up seven servers I have discovered that water cooling works well. The static parameter system I use works well, thus I have issues with motivating me to seek out improvements. I work well in a team environment but left on my own I tend to grow interests in other distractions. I am struggling with finding people to collaborate on extending the TSP. One issue is in validating results. Finding logic errors in ones own work are very difficult (system work until they don't). I have attended three Tribes in the southern USA and have currently started a Tribe in my locale. Another challenge I face is in finding members that are technically sophisticated to be able to understand simple trend-following. The TSP project is a great spring board I would enjoy in extending the project. I do require feed back for motivation -- a project manager or a tail twister. Any suggestions? I am open to your ideas.    I wonder if you are willing to send me an outline of a chapter you might like to prepare. Monday, June 28, 2010 Austin Tribe Feedback I attend a tribe meeting in Austin. One member, a business owner, wants to increase income. A suggestion to raise prices is discussed, he resists the suggestion, citing the wish to provide good value, and not overcharge. We discuss that clients should decide what they will pay, according their perception of value. I see a larger issue here for me around self worth and valuing one's own work. Another member brings up an issue around resistance to taking risk. As the tribe works through this, an issue of father acceptance is found. We role play through a vivid child hood example, and discuss new ways to handle perceived rejection. And Ed discusses that moderating risk taking is likely appropriate at this time for the applicable market. Thank you for sharing your process.  You might consider taking your feelings about to Tribe. Monday, June 28, 2010 Radial Momentum Ed, Thanks again for lunch and the demonstration of radial momentum and the theory that goes with it. I find the computer simulation you show to be extremely valuable and thought provoking. I appreciate the power that comes with viewing situations in terms of systems and their dynamics rather than simple cause and effect vectors. Thank you for your encouragement. Monday, June 28, 2010 Sharing Feelings Hi Ed I want to share what I believe is a moment of success in strive to intimacy. My eldest son and my daughter were arguing with each other. I stop them. I ask them what is going on. My daughter says that my son has hit her. My son shouts "That's because you hit me"! I realize that we need to share feelings. I ask my daughter how she is feeling? She doesn't say anything. I try again, I ask her if she feels happy or sad. She says "sad" I ask my son how he is feeling. He says "I feel sad" I say "I feel sad that both the children I love are fighting." I ask, "How do you think we can all feel better?" My daughter says "Say sorry?" I say "Yes, lets try it." My son says "Sorry Alyssa" My daughter says "Sorry Tristan" This seems to resolve the situation. I feel amazed, I realize how really powerful sharing our feelings is in creating intimacy and understanding. Thank  you for sharing your process.  When you ask how to feel better than sad, you imply something "worse" about feeling sad.  You might also consider asking them about what they think the benefit (positive intention) is of feeling sad.      People With Judgments About Sadness  tend to lose things    Clip: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_yDOfMhAYFek A7pamfUfIvw/s400/sad.png Monday, June 28, 2010 Screaming for Intimacy This is the best recollection events last night. My wife's folks are staying with us at the moment. My wife arrives home. I open the door for her and welcome her in. It is freezing cold outside. She comes in. I notice the shoe shelf next to the door has moved further away into the elements where the shoes may get wet. I ask if she knows why the shoe shelf has moved. She says her dad must have moved it. I start to move it back to the usual place. She goes inside and shuts the door because of the cold. My foot is in the doorway. One of my toes gets caught between the door and the doorframe. I feel pain. I shout something like "WHAT ARE YOU DOING?" I roll around on the ground writhing in pain. I somehow know it isn't all that bad. It is still painful. My wife apologizes, I don't really hear this as I a writhe around on the ground. I only recall this later. I am still yelling and shouting. I can't recall what I said. I am upset. My wife gives me a cold compress for my toe. I am upset that I am injured slightly, I am upset the door is closed in my face while I am in the doorway. I ask why she always closes the door in my face. My wife doesn't receive my feeling and has taken on the role of opponent. My Mother-in-law joins in supporting her daughter. This ramps up my explicative's and accusations as the drama unfolds. I accuse my wife of not apologizing. She reminds me she has apologized. I realize I just want her to acknowledge my feelings, I have somehow created a situation where she is my opponent. I am angry that the door is closed in my personal space. My feelings receive no acknowledgment. I get angrier still.  I feel my jaw clenching and a knot in my stomach. My wife is now silent, and has walked away and is ignoring me. I have nothing further to say and no one to say it to. I go to the bedroom. I try to feel the anger and ramp up the intensity as much as I can. I go to bed. I feel and hear my heart pounding in my ears. I cannot sleep. My wife comes in and goes to bed. I realize that I am happy to have her near me even though I am still really angry. I feel more happy than angry. I realize I need to acknowledge this feeling. I say "I miss you" She says "I can't hear." I realize she can't hear as she has her ear plugs in (She sleeps with earplugs to stop my snoring keeping her awake) I say again "I miss you" much louder.   She is quiet and remains silent. I take the silence as confirmation that she has heard me. I wonder about how I can practice intimacy if my partner is unwilling to receive. I realize I need to concentrate on my feelings and I feel better for sending anyway, regardless of whether there is someone receiving them or not. I go to sleep. I wake up, it's a new day. I feel much better but there is still a lingering silent treatment from last night. I know I should not focus on the past. I make a conscious decision to stay in the now. I say goodbye to everyone including my wife. I tell her "I love you" and then I add "even if you don't want to receive my feelings" I realize this is a big mistake, I am just trying to control her again. I want to kick myself. She says "I am still waiting for your apology." I say "I don't know what I need to apologies for?" She tells me to go to work and think about it. I go to work. I am happy that she is sending again. I resolve to do my best to be a good receiver. I come home. We talk. She asks me to apologize. I say I do not know what I have done to offend her. She says I have completely over reacted. She says I have a habit of giving an excessive responses to situations. She says that all our friends and family think it is so. She tells me it's not normal. I try to receive her and not get drawn in. I thank her for sharing her feelings. She tells me not to say that, She says she finds it patronizing.   I explain my foot was closed in the door, it was painful and I screamed and shouted from the pain. I explain I was angry that the door was closed unnecessarily in my personal space without any care whether I was there or not. I say I think its normal for people to scream when they feel pain and shout when they feel anger. She says the extent to which I carried on with the shouting was un-necessary and that I should have just get over it. I explain that perhaps if she had just admitted that she had closed the door in my personal space without disregard for my well being that I would have calmed down sooner.   I explain that if she had received my feeling instead of denying them I would have calmed down sooner. She says that I somehow have a way of always turning the situation around to make it look as if she is in the wrong. I thank her for sharing her thoughts about the matter. (I didn't want to say the word feelings again) I come across your FAQ quote "telling someone to stop being angry usually makes them angrier" and showed it to her. I can't recall how things progressed from there. Somehow the matter is resolved and everything is now back to normal, the drama is over and we remain completely committed to each other. I realize I have participated in a drama, I realize that I need to share my feelings which I did. I realize I have made some mistakes in asking "Why" and accusing and blaming which is from the causal model. I realize I should stray from the "I feel" language. I wonder how I manage to create such a drama. I want to move to a more intimacy centric relationship. I realize that I am still trying to control her. Looking back It seems I have engineered a situation where my wife's role is to not receive and my role an attempt to control her in order to send. Ed, as usual I would appreciate your thoughts and point out were I am going wrong in my journey down the road to intimacy. You might consider taking your feelings about to Tribe.     Some Kids Learn to Complain in order to gain attention.  Some grow out of it and some don't.   Clip: http://coedmagazine.files. screaming-thumb.jpg Saturday, June 26, 2010 Radial Momentum Dear Mr. Seykota, I hope you are well with you today. I am a post-graduate Structural Engineering student at the University of ..., and I have a few questions regarding the applications the principle of conservation of Radial Momentum. First of all, I would like say congratulations on developing your theory and model to your satisfaction. Your website and papers have been a joy to read over the years, and with my Engineering background I have sympathized with your illuminating numerical modeling, and your insistence of such model as counter-thesis. So, again: Bravo. My questions are as follows: 1. In your website you provide the basic maths for and expanding cube and expanding sphere, and the detailed mode for the Levitator Disk, and hence the expanding ring model. I am interested in the details of an expanding cone model: do you have any papers or information regarding radial expansion in a cone which has not been published on your website yet; and, if so, how may I be able to obtain access to them? 2. How would you predict the radial expansion effects on a cone that is immersed in a fluid, say water, and rotated about the axis normal to its circular base and coincident with its apex? You may first assume no motivated axial flow - just rotation of the cone about its axis. Then you may consider a motivated axial flow in addition to the cone's rotation. How do would you describe the radial expansion effects in these two cases? I would be grateful to read your responses to these queries. Thank you for your encouragement.  1. The area and volume of a conic plate perpendicular to the axis of the cone would be proportional to its radius, hence proportional to the distance from the apex.  2. My work deals with a flow that has pressure motivation via a plenum antecedent to the active Your vision of inducing flow through rotation is out of the scope of my theories.    If you have computational facilities, skill in modeling and would like to verify / disprove my results, I am happy to provide details on my formulations. Friday, June 25, 2010 Austin Tribe Feedback: Playing Soldiers Mr. Seykota, At Austin Tribe Meeting #3, two more tribe members go on the hot seat. I have gained tremendous insight and a better understanding of intimacy with each and every tribe member's experience on the hot seat. One member, who owns ... business, talks about improving and changing his relationship with money from one of struggle to one of an easy acceptance of money flowing to him. It becomes apparent that he must embrace his own inherent value. He must recognize how important and valuable his time and services are before he can change his relationship with money. I am captivated by the hot seat experience of another tribe member, who discusses his reluctance to deal with risk. The process takes our fellow tribe member from present day, to a nearly ruinous real estate deal in the '80s, and all the way back to a traumatic experience as a 3 or 4-year-old.   As a little boy he was playing soldiers in his garden when his father came home. The father was furious with the damage to the garden and had to be restrained by his wife and the boy's grandmother from beating the little boy. That child wanted, more than anything, for his father to love him and to play soldiers with him in the garden, but instead he is treated with scorn and fury. Roughly 50 years later, the little boy was still there in the heart of this successful, kind, competent man. And he was still yearning for the love and acceptance of his father. A few days after this meeting, my 6-year-old says, "Dad, would you play soldiers with me?" I immediately feel tightness in my throat. I feel, and fight against, tears of joy that are blurring my vision.   The joy is overwhelming. I have never been so thrilled in my life to play soldiers. I think I enjoy it more than my two boys. My soldiers are courageous and creative, but very silly. My sons laugh and laugh at my silly soldiers. I feel in the present. I treasure the roughly 45 minutes we spend creating strategies and ambushes and alliances. I feel grateful for the connection with my children. I feel extremely relaxed with the boys over the past several days. I constantly try to focus on connection instead of control. As a parent I have felt many days of frustration and a feeling of trying my best but falling short. I have felt nothing like that since our last tribe meeting. I feel like I am exactly where I need to be. I play soldiers. Thank you for sharing your process.    Kids Naturally Like To Connect  with their parents.  Clip: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_2557tHZ4FzU/ s400/2580793392_abb11aef3a_o.jpg Friday, June 25, 2010 Austin Tribe Feedback: Dealing with Fear of Loss We go through two processes tonight. The first one does not resonate much with me, but the second strikes quite a chord. One of the members explains that he is having trouble taking risks in the market. He thinks it is related to a near wipe-out that he experienced over 20 years ago. Since that event he has not been able to really take a big a chance. .. or to get his “mojo” back. It takes numerous attempts, but Ed patiently deals with each of the logical, analyzed reasons that the tribe member has for his problem. Ed asks the tribe member to really remember the experience of nearly being wiped out and to really feel that all over again. As the tribe member does this, I recall some of my early losses in trading. I feel the frustration of the loss. I recall bargaining with myself, with the market, with God. I feel the anger and shame associated with those losses and how at times I felt like and did cry over them. The feelings are a mixture of anger, sadness, shame, despair, and helplessness. I feel my eyes swell and get a little watery and my chest get tight. I withdraw from the market, and miss what becomes a huge move in the markets. I recall more recent market losses that were far larger with a couple of extra zeros on the end. I recall attempting to feel nothing during those episodes. I tried being a machine. I barely had any emotion at all, or more correctly I refuse to feel any emotions. The result is the same though, I largely retreat from the market and am scared to get back in. As with my early losses I withdraw from the market just in time to watch it zoom higher. As I support my tribe’s man as he goes through the process, I feel fear that creeps over me. I fear that I will never get trading right. I am afraid that being able to trade profitably is just a pipe dream that I can’t fulfill. Even now when writing this I feel confusion, I don’t like it, but I commit to feeling this. My mind swims with questions. I wonder where this comes from. I wonder whether it is possible for me to learn to be an excellent trader. I have been emotional and I have been steeled and I traded poorly both times. Thank you for sharing your process. Thursday, June 24, 2010 Report on Austin Tribe Session 6/17: Learning to Grieve  Dear Ed, After attending the first two Tribe meetings, my wife and I discussed the Control Model and the cathartic experience of people on the hot seat. I acknowledged Control behavior in our relationship and I asked how she felt about that observation. Such an invitation can be considered a stimulant to engaging the Intimacy Model. After interactive communication, she encouraged me to take the 'hot seat' at my earliest opportunity and not hold back emotionally. While on the hot seat, I realized I had blocks (k-nots) to describing my feelings and always resorted to logic. As the process continued and through my team members role playing and Ed's facilitation, a traumatic investment experience that lay dormant for some 24 years emerged. Asking the question, what do you do to grieve, led to the recognition that I have not been able to engage in the grieving process. Blocks to healing resulted in shutting-down and withdrawing from investing compared to the time prior to the trauma experience. More probing and questioning led to the 'AHA moment' of realizing the cause of my traumatic experience was not just the financial trauma, but a deeper rooted desire to win affirmation from a father who I was trying to please and win his affirmation. My father found difficulty expressing his feelings, was not affirmed by his father, and therefore, could not offer me what he did not possess. As I discussed these feelings I realize my drive for relational bonding to make up for what I did not experience with my father. I also have an issue with my expressing my feelings. I have started to reframe time with my dad and I am experiencing new feelings which is creating a lighter spirit within me as I deal with my past.   I start to role play with my dad and talk to him on an intimate basis. I desire to understand him and have him understand me. The choice of a different outcome in dealing with past experiences and circumstances creates a lighter feeling as I start to feel a release and peace. I feel I am starting to cycle thru a grieving process. The intention to fully participate emotionally in the TTP process, the power of role playing, choice, and the supportive process of the tribe contributed to opening the faucet between my feelings and conscious mind. Many thanks to Ed and my fellow tribe members for their support and validation. Thank you for sharing your process. Thursday, June 24, 2010 Bernoulli Greetings Mr. Seykota,   Having just read market wizards book, and with a desire to learn more.. I found your website. But I get distracted easily. I went there for trading knowledge and found the articles on levitation to be most captivating. I never questioned the Bernoulli idea before but i lost a little sleep over this theory last night. My first thought was that the decrease of air density behind the foil creates a relative vacuum on top of the wing and thus the lifting pressure from below. But the more i think about it the more confused i am. I plan to experiment a little. But i want to thank you for turning some gears in my head that haven't turned for awhile. Let me know if you can find any errors in my theory. Thursday, June 24, 2010 Data Providers Hi Ed,   Some day I look forward to renewing our friendship, and explaining how I came to step on a landmine ten years ago. Meantime, I am comparing the various chart software offerings. The one I showed you years ago still exists. You may remember that I introduced you to Proview and its owner Richard Cook of Sydney , with a suggestion that you join forces. We then met with your people (in Florida ?) but lost track after that. CQG looks promising, and CSI ... also, and FutureSource has some facilities. Just wondering if you can steer me to any others that I should add to the comparison. I will be happy to give you my conclusions in any case, as to what works best. Looking at all the world’s liquid markets requires eliminating the ones that trade too little so that has to be easy. There are so many liquid ETFs that trade like futures that you want to include them clearly, along with large-cap stocks if they are trending. Then you want to pick out new highs, get them into a slide show etc. Am doing this for myself ... and glad to include you. FAQ does not recommend commercial products. See ground rules.  I am happy to hear about your continuing researches into data providers. Thursday, June 24, 2010 Developing a System Dear Mr. Seykota, I had a system (or set of rules) for commodities that on average made 12 trades per month. When I lose I lose 1% of my account or less (because I move my stop loss) and when I win I win 1.5% I win 55% of the time I'm in the trade between 1 and 20 days, and I don't have profit taking, I just move my stop loss (usually under the 3 days low, or above 3 days high), to protect my profits, until the market take me out... I used these set of rules for the last 2 years, but I didn't make a back-testing, because I use different rules for different cases. I would like to ask you, what advise can you give me to improve my results Thanks You might consider back-testing some systems that stay in the market a little longer. Thursday, June 24, 2010 Willingness Testing Hi Ed! Life is more funny that when I started to write to you a couple of years ago. I am grateful for the journey you have helped me to do! Today I use my feelings as a great input instead of an enemy. I have the analogy with a gps in a car. A gps is never angry, it always give you the best effort to guide you from where you currently are. The same with your feelings. They make the best effort to guide you from your current situation! I wish I could build a system like you. The last years I have found hints (to your system) along the way and I believe I could build a good system, but currently I have a hard time creating some action! I know the best way is to start, so I think I will do that now :-) One of my best transformations is that I constantly congratulate myself for good things I have done. Earlier I did just the opposite. I only count good things. When you said "what you measure tends to improve" it became evident that it is not good to measure something you don't want to improve. Still I am doing stupid things that I have a judge against, but now I let myself "fall" and give me time to be human and enjoy it. I am not a machine and when I build my rules with that in mind, I have a smaller tendency to be strict to the level of stupidity. We still meet 2-5 people in our tribe every month. I am happy about these meetings and as long as I have someone to interact with it is enough. It was a long time a new member joined the group but as long we are at least two persons, I am satisfied. Yesterday I received my mother when she was upset about unthankful children. I came to understand that I was actually "pushing" her to feel without permission (I did not ask). She became more upset and said she did not want to talk about this. I said it might be good to bring it up instead of push away the feelings. The same evening she said it felt better. Still, I did it because I thought she needed it, not because she said she needed it. I guess I might do better if I initially ask for willingness. Best regards and have a nice summer! Thank you for sharing your process and your insights about testing for willingness. Wednesday, June 23, 2010 Austin Tribe Feedback: Connecting With His Kids Dear Ed, Report on Session #3 “Connect with your kids” – that was my main take away from session #3 in the Austin Tribe last week. Similar to the previous two sessions, this session explored and demonstrated the value of the Intimacy-Centric model.   There was one hot seat which started out, in my mind, completely unrelated to the Intimacy-Centric model. However, under Ed’s skillful process leadership and with a role playing exercise, before the hot seat was over I could see that the issue was not really about the excessive fear of risk (as the person on the hot seat and I as an observer originally assumed it was) but instead it was about the Control-Centric model. The solution was the application of the Intimacy-Centric model. In fact that it was so powerful that it even made it impossible for the role player to continue in his aggressive, Control-Centric role. From another hot seat, I learned a lesson on pricing, free markets and capitalism. And I also learned that trading issues are usually the manifestation of underlying psychological issues. Trying to fix only the trading issue will not work if we do not address the underlying psychological issues. Once again, thank you very much Ed for the valuable insights and thanks also to my fellow tribe members. Thank you for sharing your process and insights. Tuesday, June 22, 2010 Austin tribe Feedback: Charging More and Celebrating Feelings of Rejection Session 3 We meet again in Austin. After checking in and reporting on the progress of our projects I take the hotseat.   My issue is about money. I want to make a lot more money but without the struggle that seems to go along with that now. Ed ask about my current occupation and we discuss various aspects of my business and my pricing. I try to feel the anger and frustration that I feel sometimes at work and can not seem to bring that feeling up. I just get this goofy grin on my face that doesn't really fit the situation.   After some time of Ed working with me I realize that it is not my customers who are to blame for my situation but me. I just do not ask enough for what I do. I agree to raise my prices the next day back at work. I am not sure what changed but feel something changed internally. I feel different in my gut. I ask for higher prices and am surprised when my customers do not even complain.   I also practice dealing with their feelings and quit trying to justify why I charge the amount I do. I find this works very well. I tell them how much it cost, they think about it and then say OK. I also notice I am not attached to them taking the offer and it feels different to not be attached to them saying yes or them saying no. I like this. Thank you for sharing your process and your success. Tuesday, June 22, 2010 The Fed Defines Inflation in a Comic Book I would be interested in knowing your thoughts regarding this comic book, courtesy of the New York Fed. Thanks! File: www.newyorkfed.org/publications/ result.cfm?comics=1 The comic book tends to minimize the definition of inflation as an increase in the quantity of money - and emphasize the definition as a general advance in price levels. Monday, June 21, 2010 Contemplating Marriage Dear Support Team, I do not feel like I make significant progress on my commitment over the past month and am not sure about what to report on. I do n]ot feel any closer to determining if I want to marry my girlfriend (I feel it's too early in the relationship to discuss marriage) and I am not dating any other women to find potential mates. I think that our relationship improves over the last month as measured by the decreasing number of dramas. We only have one major drama that occurs four weeks ago. She gets upset at me twice over the last weekend but these are minor, quickly resolved, and don't bother me. I notice that as I am thinking of what I want to write that I keep coming up with "negatives" about the relationship or things that are lacking between me and achieving my commitment. I feel the urge to report on the "positives" of the relationship (as I do in my last update) but I decide that this is not necessary. I have concerns about my girlfriend being reliable. I think about how she seems to have a volatile personality at times and can turn from happy to upset very quickly. I have an Aha as I consider that this could be analogous to not wanting high volatility or big drawdowns in a trading account. I view dating as the back-test for marriage. I feel like I gradually get closer to being able to make a decision about marriage as the duration of dating extends. Initially I feel embarrassed about having a perceived lack of progress. I do not want to submit my update because I don't want to send out "bad news". I stick to the commitment of sending the update and feel much better at the completion of this e-mail. I think that I can only have progress by being willing to work on these issues. I am happy to have support from such a great group of individuals who express enthusiasm about helping me with my commitment. Thanks for your support Thank you for sharing your process.  You might consider taking your feelings about to Tribe.  You might also consider which, if any, of the following quotes is closest to perfect.  “The closest to perfection a person ever comes is when he fills out a job application form.  ~Stanley J. Randall “This is the very perfection of a man, to find out his own imperfections.” By Saint Augustine “They say that nobody is perfect. Then they tell you practice makes perfect. I wish they’d make up their minds.” By Winston Churchill “No one becomes perfect, but some become great.” By Anonymous “I am careful not to confuse excellence with perfection. Excellence, I can reach for; perfection is God’s business.” By Michael J. Fox “Striving for excellence motivates you; striving for perfection is demoralizing.” By Harriet Braiker “No good work whatever can be perfect, and the demand for perfection is always a sign of a misunderstanding of the ends of art.” By John Ruskin “No one is perfect… that’s why pencils have erasers.” Author Unknown “Gold cannot be pure, and people cannot be perfect.” Chinese Proverb “When you aim for perfection, you discover it’s a moving target.”  By George Fisher “Once you accept the fact that you’re not perfect, then you develop some confidence.” By Rosalynn Carter “Have no fear of perfection - you’ll never reach it.” By Salvador Dali “A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem.” By Albert Einstein “Were I to await perfection, my book would never be finished” Chinese Proverbs “Perfectionism is the enemy of creation.” By John Updike “Done is better than perfect.” By Scott Allen “Perfectionism is the voice of the oppressor.” By Anne Lamott     Too Much Perfection   can be an imperfection   Clip: http://www.productivity501.com/ excellence-perfection-vs-efficiency/504/ Monday, June 21, 2010 Clinical Trials for TTP Dear Ed, I have the results of the clinical trial evaluating TTP in healthy participants. We carried the trial in a University hospital. It included 25 persons between 21 and 43 years. We evaluated among others the scores for depression, somatic complaints (like pains and aches), aggressively, fear, and global well-being. Immediately after that, they took the hot seat.   We assessed the same areas three and ten days later. The tests showed a reduction of about 50% in the scores of most areas that we assessed. In other words, three and ten days after the hotseat participants were better in balance, half as depressed, half as stressed, and had 50% less physical complaints and emotional tension than before. If you are interested, I can send you a more complete report. We plan to write a paper about it and present it for publication in a medical journal. Lo and behold, TTP works… Thank you for the encouraging news.  I wonder if you can send comparable metrics for alternative methods such as talk-therapy, pharmacology and getting some straight talk from an authority figure. Monday, June 21, 2010 Living With Intimacy   At workshop I discover I am largely without discipline in my trading. Through my hot seat I learn through re-enactment and modeling that I have internal drama from childhood bully incidents. Emotional turmoil in me seeps out and creates drama in my life. I came to Workshop to learn how to trade better, knowing from TTP that psychology is a critical component, a make or break ingredient in trading results. I want to follow rules and get more predictable results, not only in trading, but in my interactions with family, friends, and in my business. Yesterday one of my sisters had a birthday. I have been rejecting her for years. Yesterday is no exception. I observe today that she too was a bully to me. I try to squeeze the rock given me in the Rocks Process and determine alternative responses. I learn that rejection is just one response. I consider she too may have been bullied by someone, and that it is a vicious cycle. This is an AHA! For me and I feel some badly needed compassion for her. But do I act on it, send her a card, a note. Do I act on Fred's attempt to get my attention?   After telling another sister that I could remember only bad things about the sister with the birthday, my wife took me, our two beautiful children, a client and her caregiver out to celebrate Father's Day [a day early]. It was a nice evening. Then last night I had a long and bizarre nightmare about the sister who had the birthday that I ignored.   In my dream she was a lesbian, and I met her and her mate in her home city 1,500 miles away. We were split up in the dream and I ended up in the city finding my own way to a place where I somehow knew people, I crashed there. Other details came and went in the dream and were hard to interpret, but upon waking and reflecting it was clear my conscience, my Fred, was trying to get my attention through my dream. I ran up and down a large hill yesterday 4 times. I am returning to physical workouts after a couple months layoff. I need the endurance to succeed in other areas of my life and I feel good about the running. I also am preparing for a challenging in July. TTP is changing my life. Attending the Workshop is changing my thinking. Ed has written a book and drawn cartography of the human mind that I only begin to comprehend. I take chances now but thanks to Workshop I have a more mature concept of risk. I have a greatly sharpened appreciation for definition and the risk aversion algorithm. In the April Workshop Ed labels a participant a "bull-shitter." This person is on the Hot seat when Ed says this. We get it. But that term comes back to me a hundred times later. This morning the term resurfaces because Ed later in the Workshop, at the end, lumps me together with this guy. Ed is trying, I believe, to teach the importance of knowing what we are talking about. Ed presses me for concise and clear definition of a term I use in the workshop, and I am unable to produce the definition with anything resembling mastery.   Today I look up bullshit and see that it is distinct from lying but the bull-shitter is implying they know more about something than they do. This type of bullshit, frankly, can lead to catastrophic losses in trading!   Thank you Ed for being tough on me and as another of our Workshop colleagues told me "searing off some of the rough edges" of our thinking, or lack of it. My commitment in the Workshop is to read a book about evaluation and optimization of trading systems suggested by Ed. This book is a perfect learning tool for me because among other things the author [Pardo] takes pains to define every term used precisely, often quoting the Oxford dictionary. The Workshop taught me to face some of my greatest fears, and that my feelings of inadequacy are not to damage my progress but protect me. This is what Fred does. He warns, he sends signals to CM and if we heed his signals we not only survive, we can prosper. I read FAQ as part of my commitment.   I learn about right livelihood. At this point I am not much of a trader, and may never be. I am okay with that. I know I can try trading if I choose to and make it rule based, test the rules through simulation and modeling, define each step and test it with a walk forward analysis. I realize people depend on me. There is no room in trading for bullshit. A comment from another Trading Tribe member suggests the key to living in the Intimacy-Centric model is to "focus on feelings rather than logic." The Control Centric model, it occurs to me, is what I have often been living and relating to others. It is rather miserable way to live. It is Mechanical and lacking humanity by definition. My daughter has just brought me a trey with yogurt and fresh fruit and a glass of milk and informed me it is Father's Day.   I realize what is important and experience this Now. She asks if I am going to church. I say yes and with that see the intimacy-model as an opportunity to learn how to share and unify with family. Thanks to Ed and my support group. I am growing in more ways than I can count. Thank you for sharing your process and your progress with connecting with family and friends. Sunday, June 20, 2010 Controlling the Wife Dear Ed, Your answer to my posting from Monday, June 14, 2010 (Relating to Children) is You might consider taking your feelings about to Tribe. I recall thinking a lot before I send my comment on the attitude of my ex-wife, since I know that judgment of others or of their actions suggest that we have own issues on the matter. And, in fact, I reckon that I don't like the feelings associated with “my ex-wife does not accept to relate in an intimate way”. I plan to take this issue to the hot seat. Thank you for pointing at it. Thank you for sharing your process. Saturday, June 19, 2010 One Year Anniversary Dear Ed, A year ago on 17th June 2009 I come to Incline with my wife to assist you on your book, conduct research and pursue my passion and right livelihood of setting up my own fund. We have an amazing experience in the US. The experience improves our relationship and completely shifts our view of life, the world and everything around us. A year later, on 17th June 2010 I start trading my system live. My fund is no longer a wild dream but a reality. My wife and I are expecting our first child in three weeks and our relationship is better than ever. A few years ago I think that right livelihood is a concept rather than a reality. I recall your quote during a workshop in 2006 "all it takes is willingness". A quote so simple and yet so powerful. These words stick with since then and replay in my mind almost on a daily basis as I face different challenges in pursuit of my right livelihood. Right now I look forward to developing my business one step at a time, becoming a father and embracing each and every challenge as a learning experience and opportunity for growth. Thank you Ed for your support, guidance and the gift of clarity that you give me as I continue my journey towards my right livelihood. Thank you for sharing your process and your accomplishments. Friday, June 18, 2010 Donchian Page Error Dear Mr. Seykota, on the Donchian page of the chart server, you write that you simulate the 6 month rule system. But under the system rules you write about trade entries at the 210 days high or low. Is this right or must it be 120 days? Thank you for the catch.  I am currently correcting and extending the study. Thursday, June 17, 2010 Wants Recommendations Hi Ed, I have read several books that reference your experience in trend following and system trading. I am looking to build a trend following system from the ground up and was wondering if you wouldn’t mind answering a few of my questions. 1) What software/platform would you recommend for programming, testing, executing orders, etc. 2) Do you know of any programming classes that you would recommend specifically for this? Thank you, FAQ does not recommend commercial products or services. See Ground Rules, above. Thursday, June 17, 2010 Parrondo's Principle Mr. Ed, Can we apply the parrondo principle (a paradox) http://www.scribd.com/doc/5626750/ Developments-in-Parrondos-Paradox To a 2 trading systems? Thank you very much. It's OK with me. Wednesday, June 16, 2010 Austin Tribe Hot Seat Report: Moving Out of Victim Dear Tribe, At the Austin Tribe meeting I take the hot seat and feel the feelings associated with my parents and sister, particularly my father. With Ed’s help and the support of the tribe, I begin to see my role in the family system. Ed states that I’m the designated hitter. This is an AHA for me. I see my role in provoking my father so that he goes after me instead of my sister or my mother. I don’t cry when he beats me because if I cry then he’ll stop hitting me, and he’ll still have enough rage to go after my sister. So I don’t cry and he acts out all his frustration on me. My sister and mom go in the other room and cry, and are safe. I don’t cry. I’m good at being a victim. I’m good at my self-imposed role in the family system. I am driving home from the meeting, and I start seeing connections about me setting myself up to be the victim, and not just with my family, but in many other aspects of my life. I start seeing how I provoke my father. I start seeing how I have a pattern of being the victim, of being the designated hitter. I see my role in the system. I no longer assign blame to my other family members. I see my role in the family system and have an AHA as I realize that I don’t have to be the victim, I don’t have to be the designated hitter. I can simply decide that I am no longer a victim and this changes the entire system. I feel an enormous weight off my shoulders. My neck is no longer tight. I didn’t realize how tight my neck is. I am exhausted. I can’t drive any farther, so I pull off the road and get a room for the night. I wake up early and have so much energy and feel light. I realize how much energy I spend blaming others, and how much effort it takes to try to get people to change. I notice it is really much easier to change myself. I realize that that is the only thing that I can change. I start driving home from the hotel where I’ve spent the night. I decide not to go straight home but instead I decide to go see my father who lives in a different town. I notice that I’m no longer angry at him. I feel sorrow. I notice that I’m OK with that feeling. I arrive at my parent’s house and my mother opens the door. She is excited to see me and invites me in. My dad gets up from his chair to greet me. He seems very happy to see me. Then I get hit by a barrage of factoids. Did I notice their new shoes that have a special kind of arch support? Did I read some article in the paper about such and such? My dad tells me about some new vitamins. I start to laugh. I recall a tribe member that takes a hot seat and discusses his father talking about facts. I am thankful he shares his process with me and the other tribe members. I realize my parents have limited experience communicating their feelings. I ask my dad if he wants to go to the deck outside and just talk. He does. We go outside. We talk. I ask him about his feelings and he talks, and talks, and talks. It’s weird. He starts telling me things that he’s never told me. I notice that I feel OK being around him. I don’t know how much time goes by. We go back up to the house, and I think I’m about to leave. I think it is nice to see him and my mom, and then my dad asks me if I’d like to have lunch with him. I say “yes”. We go and have lunch and he continues to talk. I share my feelings with him about various things with my son and he opens up more. It’s weird. Three days after the Austin Tribe meeting, I go to the local tribe meeting and we discuss the control-centric model and the intimacy-centric model. My wife takes the hot seat and we go through about 12 different role-playing scenarios. We take turns playing the role of my wife. That’s new for us. My wife gets to see how other people use various resources in the scenario. One tribe member is playing the role of my mother-in-law in every scenario. He has never met my mother-in-law, and he is spot on in playing her in the scenario. At checkout we agree that he can win an Oscar for his performance. Now here’s the weird part: we all notice that as each of us took turns playing the role of my wife and trying different resources, the tribe member playing the role of my mother-in-law reacted in completely different ways. We all have an AHA that he is merely reacting to us, that he is giving each of us the response that we are soliciting. We notice how the control-centric model failed miserably in getting any positive results; and we notice how using the intimacy-centric model, establishing rapport and sharing feelings, receive positive results. I have an AHA, my family members are all just giving me what I want. A few days pass, and it is now Monday night. Me and my wife, son, sister, niece, mom, and dad are all sitting at a table in a restaurant. It is our first time to be together in over a year. We are all laughing and having a good time. There is a brief moment of silence, and my son, who is four and is sitting between my wife and my father, looks up at my father and says, “It’s been a really long time since I’ve seen you.” My father responds, “Yes.” My son then pushes his math workbook in the direction of my father and they start solving some math problems. I am thankful for the support from Ed and all the Tribe members. Thank you for sharing your process.    The Abuser and the Victim  have subtle ways  of locating each other  and agreeing to the terms of engagement.           Clip: http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/~willia26/ Wednesday, June 16, 2010   Swinger Dear Ed: I day-trade because there is too much noise in swing trading and investing. Thank you for sharing your process.    People Who Engage in Self-Destruction  typically have good reasons.     Clip: http://www.insidesocal.com/ Wednesday, June 16, 2010   Austin Tribe Feedback I attend the Austin Tribe meeting. A member brings up his relationship issue with his mother- in-law. His is aware that his resentment, in part, is due to gift expectations, which are communicated to his wife. His usual pattern is to argue the financial issues with his wife, then give up when his wife won't agree. As we role play, it become clear that the real conflict is with his wife. Similar feelings are recalled when, as a boy, he was not granted a gift he deeply wanted. As the process develops, we see that the gifts are really tokens of deep feelings. For the boy, the feelings were about receiving affection in the form a gift. In the man, his feelings are invalidated when the wife won't cooperate. We see that both situations are about achieving intimacy, not the surface conversations. Another role play is undertaken to process the resentment of being bullied in another tribe member. Memories surface around an incident with a close relative. We role play and powerful feelings are experienced by the tribe member. We work through new responses/resources that can be used in dealing with this relationship and similar situations. We talk talk through the issues, without role play, for a member that received physical abuse as a child, and mental abuse as a teenager. His attempts to resolve relationship issues with his family have met with little or no progress. In talking through the players and their agendas, the motives and possible responses are clarified. He sees the possibility of new attitudes and options in dealing with players. Thank you for sharing your observations. Wednesday, June 16, 2010 Austin Tribe Feedback: Reconciling with His Brother Hello Ed, Thank you and my fellow Tribesman for another great meeting. One of the members of the tribe expressed his dissatisfaction with being presented an extravagant Christmas gift list from his wife's family that he is expected to pay for each year. He explains to his wife that they go way over their Christmas budget each year but she spends the money anyway. He is uncomfortable with this arrangement. He relates a similar story, as a child, he wanted a red fire truck for Christmas but his mother refused to buy it for him because it wasn't within the family budget. He role played with two tribe members, one played his wife while another played his mother. This role playing allowed him and everyone else in the tribe to to learn new interpersonal skills. We learned to express our feelings to someone and to listen and encourage the other person to express their feelings as well. This communication allows a deeper understanding of the actual issues that are driving the dramas in our lives. We also learned to negotiate by expressing our feelings in order to drive home a point about something we feel strongly about. I took the "hot seat" and related an incident involving my brother that I had strong feelings about. We were both visiting our parent's home and I had mentioned that I was taking a martial arts class at college. My brother, who is much larger than I am, started to throw punches close to my head to show his martial arts prowess. This action irritated me and I nudged him away with my arm. He then grabbed me by the arm and threw me to the ground. He laid on top of me and pinned my arms underneath me. I struggled to get up but, couldn't. I asked him what was wrong but, he said nothing and just continued to pounce and hold me down. Finally, I shouted for help but, then my brother put his hand over my mouth and rubbed my lips against the braces I had on my teeth at the time. Then our mother came in to break up the incident and she told me to stay away from my brother. My brother explained the reason why he was angry was because he and his wife were having difficulties. This struggle was re-enacted in the tribe meeting with one tribesman playing my brother and another playing my mother. I learned that if someone approaches me in an aggressive manner to show respect for their emotions by asking how they are feeling. Maybe, if I had asked how he was feeling and allowed him to express himself about his marriage problems, the entire fight could have been avoided. I could have also shown more respect for the martial arts techniques he had learned as well. I would have also opened up a more intimate dialog by communicating with him in this manner. I spoke to my brother a couple of days after the tribe meeting and asked him how he was feeling. He said he was hot and was sweating. I asked him if had anymore feelings and he said the heat made him feel sad. Then I said I felt bad about the heat as well and then made a mistake. I told him I was going to my car to turn on the a/c full blast to get over the hot feeling. I guess the old control centric model dies hard. Then I asked him how business was and he felt bad because it was such a dog-eat-dog world. I injected humor by saying I get bit in the tail myself sometimes and he laughed. When the conversation ended he said he was glad I had called him. I look forward to seeing everyone at the next Tribe meeting. Thank you for sharing your process and for following through with your brother.      Your Siblings Can Help You  explore and learn how to deal with  lots of issues.         Clips: http://kansansforlife.files. Wednesday, June 16, 2010 Austin Tribe Feedback: From Control to Intimacy Dear Ed, During the week after the Austin Tribe meeting, I review the Control / Intimacy Models and draft a post to FAQ. In an attempt to express the concepts and after a challenge to not hold back emotionally, I further discuss Control issues with my wife. I acknowledge how I attempt to control in many ways and that many behavioral issues spring from past family experiences. She challenges and encourages me to become more transparent and vulnerable. As I dialogue and express my feelings, she points out that I always decide what to do based upon what I should do rather than what I would like to do, more like not treating myself well, because I don't deserve to be treated well. She reminds me that I am a perfectionist. I start to get a knot in my neck as I realize there are many control issues and acknowledging them creates more tightness up my neck. Thru the first Austin Tribe meeting, as several members take the Hot Seat I experience, I share in the experiences as similar events in my life become vivid. I see how TTP processes can reframe and apply different resources to impact choices. In thinking about my family history and the Control Model in our home versus the Intimacy Model., my 'aha moment' is that I attempt to manage and control outcomes in my personal and investing life. In starting the TTP journey my intent is to be in the Intimacy Model, wherein I acknowledge, trust and accept my feelings, and to commit to work on my control issue. Thank you for sharing your process. Wednesday, June 16, 2010 Workshop Progress Report It is hard to believe it has only been a couple of months since the April Workshop in Reno. I complete the Pardo EOTS 2nd Ed. This week. I am exhausted and grumpy. I allow myself to enjoy that feeling and consider its intention. I stick with my system of systematic study of Pardo and prepare for next action steps. Emotionally, I feel distanced. I notice it has been over two months since I sent in TTP application above. I experience mixture of ambivalence and mild resentment. I recognize that feeling as anxiety and it starts to shrink and disappear. I am grateful to know and inspired by other Workshop attendees from the Reno conference. Their comments, especially [from Name] remind me I need to review Ed’s book, and I quote it to him to help him solve his k-not. I sit in my office contemplating an exhausting interview I have with prestigious investment firm last night. I have mixed emotions. I let them flow. I am aware of many opportunities before me, and I consider how I sabotage them, squeeze them like I would a bully (recalling my hot seat, my wrestling days). I am more than ready to start a Trading Tribe! The sooner the better because my recollection of my experience of the Workshop is not getting any stronger as time passes. I feel let down that the tribe application has not been acknowledged, and over two months have passed since I sent it in. This feeling has a good intension. I consider that intension as a desire to see some action, and with that I respectfully close. Thank you for sharing your process. Wednesday, June 16, 2010 Wants to Attend a Workshop Hi ,   I would like to know when is the next course!? Tks I currently have no specific date for a Workshop in Austin. I generally schedule Workshops in response to demand. Wednesday, June 16, 2010 Profit Taking Dear Ed, Do you exit on stop-loss or do you have a profit taking when you place a trade? Thank you very much You might consider this:  profit taking = profit limiting   and   loss taking = loss limiting. Wednesday, June 16, 2010 TSP Dear Ed Seykota, I'm student trend follower from [Country] who would like to thank you for your brilliant website and book.   I find it has greatly helped me to improve my trading knowledge and skills. I have been building my own trending following trading system, and been doing the exercises under "the trading system project" section on the website. I can see that there are other topics in this section such as optimizing a trend system and dynamic portfolio selection, but no links to information about these subjects.   I would love to read your view on the listed subjects. Is this information available anywhere and/or do you plan to update the website with exercises and information in "trading system project" section in the future? Thank you for your support.  You might consider writing something on optimization and other topics to link to the index. Wednesday, June 16, 2010 Austin Tribe Feedback: Sharing with His Wife and Son Mr. Seykota, I find that the second Austin Tribe Meeting greatly enhances my understanding of intimacy and what it means to send my feelings and receive feelings from others, without judging or suggesting a course of action. I am beginning to understand that giving advice and saying, "You should do XYZ" is a way to control someone. During the second meeting, three other tribe members take the hot seat. And each one of them brings a revelation to me. I appreciate the work that each of my fellow tribe members goes through. Their struggles and their forms are captivating, they are intense, and they enrich my understanding of the power of intimacy. I am excited to follow up with each of them to hear how their new resources of sending and receiving feelings have benefited their relationships over the last week. In the five days since our last meeting, I am very much at ease, very willing to accept what is happening right now, without trying to judge how I feel. I am doing a better job of letting my feelings happen and turning toward my thoughts of confusion, and embracing them, instead of turning away. Since our last meeting, I share my feelings with my mother about trading and the importance to me of this Tribe. I share my feelings with my wife about our annual family trip to [City], which is always a source of friction between us. I share my feelings with my 6-year-old about using a magic marker to color the carpet. And I ask him if he will share with me how he feels about coloring the carpet. He does share and he does communicate his feelings and it all feels so right and so honest and pure. My patience is increasing. My appreciation of today is increasing. I am excited to continue the journey. Thank you for sharing your process. Tuesday, June 15, 2010 Connecting With His Son Austin Tribe Meeting #2 Feedback: Last week we have our second meeting in Austin. We report feelings that have come up from our projects. A couple members work on issues they are hot about. I find I have the same issues as them although with varying degrees of intensity. Somewhere in the meeting my mind drifts to my son.   His mom and I divorced when he was young and she raised him with me just seeing him every other week. Seems to me every difficulty they encountered was always my fault and he learned to manipulate his mom to get his way or to get out of doing things he did not wish to do. Today he is 29 has 3 children and has never held a job over 6 months in his entire life.   He is back living with his mom with no car and few resources. When things go bad for him he tells his mom he is depressed and is thinking about committing suicide then his mom and sister come running to bail him out, over and over and over again.   I have worked all my life since I was a teen and been self sufficient so I have real trouble relating to him, I just don't understand or like this kind of behavior. Needless to say we just don't get along. After observing Ed work with a few people I left the Tribe meeting thinking about giving my son another try. I called him and told him I would like to take him to lunch Sunday afternoon. I made the decision before leaving to pick him up I will practice accepting him just how he is and just how he is not.   I chose to try my best not to judge him or push my ideas of how he should be or how he should live his life. What a wonderful meal we had. He brought my grandchildren and we laughed and had the best time we have had together probably ever. As we were leaving he ask if we could get together and spend some more time together this summer.   In conclusion for years I had thought how I could possibly make a difference with him to improve his life and nothing I did or said seemed to help. He either did not listen or rejected any suggestions.   Dropping judgment and my ideas of how he should be or do seemed to make more difference than anything I have ever tried and opened the door to finally establishing some connection there with him. I feel this is a major milestone for us. Thanks Ed for hosting this Tribe series! Thank you for sharing your process and for connecting with your son.    Sometimes Your Relationships Improve  in proportion to what you stop doing.     Clip: http://trayvon.ottley.ca/wp-content