May 21 - 31, 2009
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Note: The appearance of a chart on FAQ does not imply
any kind of indication or recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out
(Previous from Ed in Red)
Observations on Milk Model
I am quickly able to find the constant flow rate that fills the cup in
the time allotted. The blue line traces the diagonal of the rectangle.
The slider is positioned such that the white line and blue line cross
over the first letter of text in the horizontal axis ("W").
Like others, I observe the milk volume reset to zero when I scroll away,
change tabs, or change the active window.
I observe a peculiar screen distortion when I use MS/IE in my primary
monitor or drag the Firefox browser window over to my second monitor.
The java display goes black briefly and then shows the applet running.
Sometimes it lags briefly, other times it stalls.
Thank you for the feedback. For more
on the model, see the EcoNowMics
Bluegrass Partners - Movie
Here are some possible bluegrass partners for you.
Thank you for the movie.
Wants to Meet
Hi, Mr. Seykota,
I am a person who is 20 years old and a student. I study
for Mechanical Engineering in [Country], but I love economic things very
much. For example, futures market, forex, hedge funds and many other
Specially, I am interested in Forex. I like transact in FOREX because, I wonder
Fibonacci numbers and
Elliot wave theory. I think it is very attractive because it depend on
the psychological situations of the people of markets.
I like conversation about these topics very much so I would like to meet you.
Because, I know you are one of the best trend persecutor in the world
and meeting you is so important for me.
If I have a chance I want to be
your learner but I already know that my e-mail is so simple for your
attention because so many people send you e-mail like mine. Maybe, you
won't even read my e-mail but I know that expressly: Today, if I don't
take a risk in my life, I will work under a person, who is already take
a risk. Please pay attention for me.
Thank you for your note.
I wonder what you would like to
accomplish by meeting.
Learning to Express Anger
Ed says in
"I wonder how you feel about [taxes on forgiveness] and [government bondage]"
When I read your question, I notice that I compile a lot of
information but suppress my feelings about it. Thank you for helping
me face them. With your help, and with the tribe's, I am learning to
experience anger and manage boundaries.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Embracing the Saw
Investments +.83% for the week.
I’m going to try to standardize my reporting. I commit to sending out my
reports on Monday morning.
I am making good progress on my big wave- all that disparate stuff is
beginning to feel much better pulled together. I’m even making progress
on my Dashboard. I’ve been tweaking all my desktop tools and they are
I am keeping better habits. This week, I was able to check my stocks
every day - even though I was traveling. I put in all my stops
religiously. I have been cultivating my whipsaw discipline. By that, I
mean, I have been putting in a trade, being stopped out, put in the
trade again, get stopped out again. I am continuing that process. It has
become clear to me that the ability to withstand the whipsaw process is
a HUGE part of good investing.
I have been hearing all my adult life, from investment professionals,
that you don’t want to be whipsawed. (Which is why the banker / broker
won't put in a stop). I think that is just laziness and lack of
discipline. I am now embracing and learning to enjoy the whipsaw
process. I'm singing the Whipsaw Song.
I commit to making my next report more numeric and specific.
Thank you for sharing your process.
The Whipsaw Provides
to master risk control
during back-and-forth activities.
Milk Model Feedback
I like the cause and effect intro. It gives a sense of direction to the
Dynamic System approach (will the politicians fool with the flow???).
Could not test the interactive part now, probably because I work on
Apple Mac (chart server for stocks, for example, for some strange reason
does not work on Mac either, whereas the futures ones do work) but will
as soon as I am on a Windows system.
Keep it up!!
Thank you for your feedback.
You are helping to steer the project.
Milk Model Feedback
Thank you for sharing your work. I find it very enjoying. Gets me very
curious to find out why when I change the rate, the graph changes.
Personally I like it if the chart moves slower, I feel like I am in the
Now more and easy to visualize the evolutionary process and track other
info that comes out in the mind during the process.
Thank you for your work.
Thank you for your feedback.
You are helping to steer the project.
As of today, we have launched Istanbul - Turkey tribe. Could you please
register us in your directory?
I continue to experiment with the TSP exponential crossover system. I
test different values for slow EA, fast EA, ATR EA and heat. I make a
web page that displays bliss as a function of these four parameters.
I want to share some observations and feelings I have about these
I notice no pattern to ATR lag. Different values give slightly
different results, but the variations appear small and random to me.
I notice many profitable systems and many that lose their entire
trading stake (grey in the page above). I notice few systems that lose
money but keep some of it (blue). It appears that if a system starts
losing money, it self-destructs completely. It also reminds me of
Jesse Livermore's maxim, "never meet a margin call." This observation
scares me. I imagine committing to a system and then staying with it
like a captain with a sinking ship.
Many of the ruinous systems cluster in the lower-left corner. These
are systems where the short lag is longer than the long lag. They are
in a sense counter-trend following systems. I feel some relief
noticing that I can reduce the chance of committing to a ruinous
system if I reason about my back-testing.
I feel surprise noticing that with low heat, some counter-trend
systems turn a profit.
I notice that even with low heat, all systems where slow and fast lag
are the same lose money, though relatively little. These systems trade
rounding-off noise and their losses mainly reflect execution skid. I
feel pretty good about my reasoning.
I notice a pattern on the profitable, trend-following side of the
image. I see "iso-bliss" ridges that run diagonally across the image,
from lower left to upper right. (E.g. with Heat=10% and ATR lag=20
days) I see bliss values around 0.18 for fast/slow of 135/180,
120/210, 105/270, 90/300, 75/330, 60/360, 45/390, 30/450,
These ridges, and their direction, persist across different
values of heat and ATR lag. I can see them more clearly with higher
heat. I feel wonder when I look at these ridges, and don't feel as
good about my reasoning. I have no theory that explains how an inverse
relationship between slow and fast lag produces equivalent trading
I notice that with higher heat, clusters of high bliss (ridges) border
directly on clusters of 100% drawdown systems.
This scares me and
undermines my confidence that back testing can help me develop a
Thank you for sharing your research
BRICs and Bahts
As per a Goldman Sachs report, by 2025 the economies of China ($12
trillion), India ($4 trillion), Russia($3 trillion) and Brazil($2.5
trillion) will exceed the US economy's size at $19 trillion.
It is time the BRIC nations, as also other emerging economies, worked
towards a robust alternative financial architecture, within the IMF and
outside, to reflect these changing realities.
Finally, it is inevitable that an alternative financial architecture
will emerge to fully reflect the inexorable shift in the balance of real
economic power towards the developed world.
History has a way of forcing
the truth on those who refuse to concede that the ground is shifting
from under their feet.
I wonder how you feel about
Landing a Jet Airplane
This guy's landing is like gliding into the driveway after a late night
at the country club...
Thank you for the movie.
I wonder if you can tell me the
source so I can credit it.
Bond Vigilantes Confront Obama as
I enjoy this article:
I wonder why they are not called “Bond Sheriffs” who tame the
Thank you for the clip.
The Classification of People
into Heroes and Villains
is generally the prerogative
of people in power.
Posting on Blog
I've taken a quote of yours from FAQ and mentioned it twice on my blog
at ... greed-is-not-good.
I've done my best to comply with your ground rules, but I'm still not
sure that I've got it right. Would you mind taking a look and letting me
know if you'd like all references to your good self removed, or if you'd
like the back links to point to different URLs?
Thanks for your inspiration,
You might notice that declaring that
a feeling is not good is not consistent with the TTP principle of
finding the positive intention.
The Positive Intention of Greed
Question = Answer ?
May I say "Question = Answer" just like you told us before "Intention =
Question: I kept asking why I cannot make money in these few week while
the market is skyrocketing in Asia. I was bull but I cutting lost in
small reaction of Index future as I afraid to loss money.
Answer: In this sense, may I get an answer I am afraid to win money
which similar to I am afraid to loss. So I cannot win anything by making
You might consider taking your
feelings about <your question> to Tribe.
Doing The Opposite - From Seinfeld
I think I am going to start doing this ...
I wonder, if you are doing the
opposite, how you do the opposite of that.
I try the Milk Model and all works fine.
Maybe an introduction explaining the general sense of the project, or
something that describes alternative models and some drawbacks they may
have (I remember the whole "cause and effect" conversation at the
workshop) would help. It may already be in your introduction but I have
yet to see that.
An alternative may be to show other models of the not dynamic system
type in the "interactive" series to make the point even more eloquently.
In any event keep at it!
Let me know if I could become more actively involved and what time
commitments that would require.
Thank you for your feedback.
You are helping to steer the project.
Yesterday my daughter enters our room and tells us that she cannot
sleep. She is afraid. I offer her to sleep in our bed, or me to be with
her until she falls asleep, but she will not. She has fear of a specific situation which happened some 5 years ago. She has expressed her fear
several times in the last weeks. My wife comforts her and tells her that
the situation cannot happen again, never, but she is still afraid. She
wants to get rid of the fear.
During a Tribe meeting, I would offer the member to experience fear and
receive him / her, but this is not a Tribe meeting, she is my daughter,
she is a child, and I don't want to fix or control her.
I ask her what she wants. She wants to get rid of the fear. I consider
briefly asking a psychologist, but discharge the idea. She tells me that
she feels the fear in her body and shows a form. I don't know how to
proceed. I don't want to offer her to increase her fear, or to increase
her form, she is a little child, and you wrote “Your method likely
leaves long-lasting scars on children”. I don't want to hurt anybody.
I remember the workshop. A participant likes some attitudes of me.
[Name] suggests me to squeeze them in a rock and give it to
I then tell my daughter that, if she wants, I can try to take her fear.
She can squeeze her feeling into me, and it will be a wonderful gift.
She repeats that she wants to get rid of it. She embraces me, and I tell
her to transfer her fears into my body. I start feeling really bad. What
I receive is not fear, it is horror, shock, impotence.
We remain embraced for some time. After that, she tells me that she
loves me and kisses me and embraces me several times. It is not the
normal expression of childish affection, it is very intense.
Furthermore, this expressivity is unusual for her.
Suddenly she appears
very mature to me. She says that it helped her, and that she still has
some fear. I ask her what she wants to do, and she wants to keep it for
her. It is OK. I don't try to fix people.
And then, something curious happens. As I try to leave the room, my legs
shake. I cannot walk normally. I go to the living room and try to walk.
I cannot. I fall several times. After some experimenting, I am certain
that it is real and not only my imagination, and I go to bed.
In the morning I cannot eat. I still cannot walk normally. My daily ride
to work (3 miles on my bike) is a struggle and it takes me twice as long
My body sensations reproduce my feelings at the end and after the
Reports on FAQ and personal emails from some workshop participants
suggest to me that my experience there helped them.
I wonder if at the workshop I was also somehow “absorbing” their struggles and
problems. At least, my body reaction is the same.
The most important issue, however, is how my daughter feels, and if it
helps her. If it does, I am ready to walk this way for as long as it
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider that "taking your
daughter's fear" is not consistent with not "fixing" her.
You might consider being with her in
her fear and receiving her while she is afraid, with out trying to fix
her or change her.
may preclude emotional connection.
Dear Mr. Seykota,
I live in [Country]. I have read about your work from
the internet. I earned my BA from the United States in 1999.
I have worked directly in quantitative modules and analysis throughout
my career growth in operations management.
I lost my job recently and putting myself $15,000 in debt. I have
difficulties to support my family, many things are falling apart day by
day. I was wondering if you could help me?
If you are looking for some change,
you might consider looking within.
Starting a Hedge Fund
(IV Tribe Report)
Dear Ed and IV Tribe Members,
I hope you are well. I thank you for sharing your business plan with us
at the meeting. It was very courageous for you to do that. I have never
seen a presentation of Hedge Fund and was very motivated and fascinated
by whole things. It makes sales far more challenging and interesting
than what I have experienced so far. Your plan is very impressing and
looks very monumental. I have a lot of respect for your work. I look
forward for a day for me to come up with such a exotic and committed
plan to present in front of investors.
I am experiencing tremendous "Aha" moments from the last experience. I am
not ready to share it with anyone, but I want you to know that your
willingness has given me an opportunity to feel what I am feeling right
now. Thank you very much for your commitment and work.
And thank you Ed
for managing the whole process introducing and sharing new technology and
letting us experience the special moments.
I appreciate your straight
forward outlook on life and your no nonsense answers. Please could you give some
advice to point me in the right direction.
I am still in the early
stages of my trading journey. I have read a no. of books
(hence reading about you in Trading Wizards and Trend
I have traded and lost
money. I know why, I didn’t have a system. I thought I could
predict where prices were going based on my intuition and
indicators I had learnt about.
I now realize how critical
it is to have good money / risk management in place. I also now realize that a
disciplined trend / momentum based approach is probably best
as no one can predict the future and that a trend based
approach is probably most suited to my personality.
Please could you advise
how I can go about testing some system ideas I have? There doesn’t seem to be a
whole lot of information on back testing systems around, or
else there seems to be people trying to sell software to
back test but I wouldn’t be able to trust someone else’s
software so I would really like to do the testing myself, at
least at first. Any Information I have
found seems to be overly complicated or incomplete.
Would you be able to
provide some guidance / resources on how one can back test
trading system ideas.
PS. I enjoyed your
kite-boarding photo, excellent. I have attached one of me
Thank you for your photo.
You might notice some similarities
in riding waves and in Trend Trading.
You might also consider visiting the
TSP project, link above.;
Trading Systems Programming Links
Here are some links you might find interesting for trading systems
Financial Products Markup Language
Thank you for the links.
Good Morning Ed,
I was doing some research this morning and I ran into your name (not the
first time) and I decided to do some research on you. I find that you
started your trading group in Los Altos CA in 1992. I was raised in Los
Altos Hills - I WOULD LOVE TO SPEAK WITH YOU!!!
Is this possible?
"Actions speak louder than words."
I wonder what you would like to say.
Frustration and Anger
Further to our telephone conversation a couple of days ago, firstly
thank you very kindly for spending time with me to discuss various
personal issues. Your generosity, advice and suggestions are much
Thanks also for helping me to narrow my focus down to a couple of
specific issues, namely the feelings of Annoyance, Frustration and Anger
which are all inter-related and, since acronyms are so universally &
annoyingly!! used these days, I suppose I could call it feelings of
Also I take on board your observation re: difficulties with willing to
feel the judgment of others. I do not like feeling judgment from others
Yes, these are my issues at this moment.
Secondly, what a surprise for me to discover that some of these issues
are the ones that I wrote about in FAQ entries nearly TWO years ago –
(see FAQ Sun, 2 Sep 2007 -
Looking for the Positive Intention of Frustration AND
FAQ - Mon, 15 Oct 2007 - A
More Specific Snapshot Locating Annoyance and Frustration)
I had totally forgotten about these FAQ contributions, but upon
re-reading them I can see that you are right on the button when you
suggest that perhaps A.F.A. issues are what I could explore in a Tribe
It would appear that I’m still carrying that stuff from 2 years ago and
no doubt much further back.
As an example, in the Sun 2 Sep 2007, FAQ I write;
“I have worked on these issues on many previous occasions at the local
tribe level and at the DIM level, however I have been unable to make
much meaningful progress. Naturally this is very, er, frustrating for
Well that about sums it up doesn’t it? I seem to be setting myself up
for failure so that I can feel annoyed and frustrated. I can’t really
see how to escape this loop alone since when I try to make progress in
some activity, by above definition, I have to make minimal progress in
order to feel annoyed and frustrated. Which is what I want. In short, I
am successfully achieving my aims. Yes, I am a complete success in
getting what I want.
Of course the idea is to embrace the feelings in order to break the
cycle & make progress in other aspects of life, hence my request for
attendance at I.V. tribe to try and nut this out.
Having ‘said’ that I am definitely willing and motivated to work on the
afore-mentioned issues to the absolute best of my ability (& with Tribe
help of course) and as such I would very much like to attend IV tribe
meetings in order to do this.
Lastly, you had suggested that I do some homework, namely to make a list
of things that annoy me. This I have done. It is a long list.
You also had said that perhaps I could consider telling my partner (&
others) about these issues and how I intend to tackle them and to
consider what she might say.
O.K. I definitely consider this, I haven’t done it though, I just
consider it. As I do this, I experience feelings of being judged which I
do not like . . .at all!
I don't like to tell others about what I do, it's my business and
As mentioned above, these feelings of being judged as well as A.F.A. are
what I want to work on and to resolve.
With respect to the IV tribe, I am very mindful of the fact that you are
currently running a special series and a new face at this late stage may
alter the dynamic & the vibe of this series of meetings.
Therefore, I will wait for your advice re: the best way to go about
this. Alternatively I can ring you again to discuss this particular
Please let me know what suits best for you.
Repeating once again, I am keen, ready & willing to do ‘the work’.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Tribe work includes willingness
testing, without which TTP can become an exercise in co-dependent
healer-patient fix-em-up games.
You might consider your reticence to
share your process with your wife as evidence you might not be ready for
Tribe work at Incline Village.
At the start
of our IVTT series I declare a secondary goal--to write a trading
system. I start working towards this goal by duplicating Ed's TSP
exponential crossover tutorial:
I duplicate Ed's equity curve to the penny for 15/150 and 85/325 runs. I
notice hundreds of instances where my calculations of lag differ from
Ed's by 0.001, consistent with what other readers report.
I attempt other values for lag and heat and discover combinations that
lose spectacular amounts of money (one ends up $521,684,900,000,000.00
in debt). Ed defines position size as a fraction of equity in this
Risk_Per_Lot = ATR * ATR_Risk_Multiplier
Position_Size = Equity / Risk_Per_Lot
With enough heat on, equity can become negative. Position_Size then goes
negative, too, and the system starts fading itself - it goes short where
the signals tell it to go long.
One characteristic that I find particularly interesting is that the more
money it loses, the more aggressive this system becomes. The formula
pushes it to bet increasing amounts of money as it gets farther in debt!
Thank you for the nice example of
the importance of moderating your mathematical results with some common
Not His Type
I am in a computer room in my
complex and there is only two people, me and this girl. So I started
talking to her with no alter motives.
Just ask her how is it going and
she went on and on. She also asked me how is it going. and I went on and
I realized she was not my type so I let her go. She seems to want to
pursuer more conversation. I did not want to. But I enjoyed the
I realized I find talking to a stranger thing very fun and
I am going to input in my system as well. Thanks for sharing.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Thank you for your support. It makes a big difference to my efforts. It
makes me do the things I postponed for a long time.
Schedule & Measurement Report
1) Spend 10 hrs per 2 weeks on meeting & talking to strangers, or
talking to people I usually only email.
Report: I spend 2hrs 49min actually talking to people, and I spend
another 2hrs 50min on setting myself up to meet people. I undershoot my
target. I didn't set myself up enough to meet people. On the positive
side, I have joined a yoga class.
On 3.June I will move to [City]. I intend to join a yoga class there as
well and I will also check out a track and field club, and see if there
is a group that I can join (the level shouldn't be too high).
2) Have 14 occasions per 2 weeks of starting a conversation with
strangers, or with vaguely familiar people, or being brushed off, told
off, or rejected
Report: I actually have 17 such occasions. Five in the neighborhood, two
while going out (bar) and 10 times I call someone I normally would not
Feelings, AHAs & Receiving Report
After my positive experience 2 weeks ago with expressing feelings
instead of hiding or faking, I decide to show what I feel while running,
by grimacing when it gets tough.
I also groan on each exhale. It feels natural, but it also feels silly,
because there are numerous people on the beach. I notice that the
running is easier when I express my leg pain; I do the same distance in
less time than the previous week, with less effort. Is this the reason
why stars like Monica Seles and Maria Sharapova groan...?! I always
thought it was meant to irritate the opponent. I also notice 2 people
smiling at me, including a child.
I intend to make a comeback in professional trading and money
management. This won't be easy, after a 12 year absence. I have to
contact old pals that I haven't spoken with in more than a decade. While
they all got rich, I stayed relatively poor, with no career to speak of.
My only selling points are my previous reputation and a strong bond
trading algorithm. I feel hesitant and uncomfortable. Also I feel
reluctant to give up my 20-hour work week, my life at the beach and my
nomadic lifestyle. I decide to postpone any contacting of old pals for
at least a month.
I notice in my 17 conversations with strangers on 3 occasions that I
don't receive, because I forget to pay attention and think of something
else. On 2 occasions the other person seems not interested in receiving.
I also notice (again) that my girlfriend and I sometimes prefer to
argue, instead of receive. I feel that she claims me too often (every 5
minutes of the day she says something to me). The progress is that
nowadays I am aware of the non-receiving, and I consciously can make a
decision to either receive or not receive. Before the workshop, I was on
autopilot; I didn't recognize our drama.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Working on Models
I notice your email right now as I write this mail with regards to
developing a Java applet which seems like a much better alternative.
I intend to research Java and develop some proficiency and understanding
of how it operates. Please also advise if we will develop
the feedback model in iThink and work with this until the Java applet is
set up. In this case I can start working on it this week.
Thank you for your comments on goals and suggestion that I look into
various programming languages during last week’s call.
quite a bit of time thinking about goals last week and have some
interesting insights in how I use them to set myself up
to feel disappointment, criticize myself and even when I achieve them,
the goals constrict diversion or creativity which my lead to
improved results. I do some research and come across a book called Goal
Free Living by Steven Shapiro. I read around this and
get additional insights about how the setting of goals can be like
deciding on limits to achievement.
I do some research on economics and notice a book that has caused some
controversy called: “The Death of Economics” by Paul
Ormerod. I wonder if this may add value or give some further food for
thought for the book.
I also start work on C# which I am excited about. Thank you for the
guidance, I truly appreciate this.
Please also note that I have finalized my flight arrangements. I arrive
to on Wednesday 17th June in the late afternoon.
Thank you for your report.
Thank you for sharing your process and the story with your son.
I wonder how you feel about playing computer games with your son. You
may even consider getting some educational / sports games which he enjoys
and finds interesting and playing those with him, perhaps even in real
Ahhhh, it's dt then. I am using dt = 1, and because the decay is so
high, a larger dt makes me decaying a lot faster than a small dt.
dt=0.01 gets me to below 11 at 5.61 days, dt=0.2 gets below 11 at 5.2
days, dt=0.5 gets below 11 at 4.5 days, dt = 0.75 gets below 11 at 3.75
days, at dt=1 (which is what I used to calculate in my head) gets me
below 11 at 3 days.
Very valuable lesson, thanks!
DT = 0.1 Mult
Time Words Goal Delta
0.00 100.00 10 90.00 72.00
0.10 92.80 10 82.80 66.24
0.20 86.18 10 76.18 60.94
0.30 80.08 10 70.08 56.07
0.40 74.48 10 64.48 51.58
0.50 69.32 10 59.32 47.45
0.60 64.57 10 54.57 43.66
0.70 60.21 10 50.21 40.16
0.80 56.19 10 46.19 36.95
0.90 52.49 10 42.49 34.00
1.00 49.09 10 39.09 31.28
1.10 45.97 10 35.97 28.77
1.20 43.09 10 33.09 26.47
1.30 40.44 10 30.44 24.35
1.40 38.01 10 28.01 22.41
1.50 35.77 10 25.77 20.61
1.60 33.71 10 23.71 18.96
1.70 31.81 10 21.81 17.45
1.80 30.06 10 20.06 16.05
1.90 28.46 10 18.46 14.77
2.00 26.98 10 16.98 13.59
2.10 25.62 10 15.62 12.50
2.20 24.37 10 14.37 11.50
2.30 23.22 10 13.22 10.58
2.40 22.17 10 12.17 9.73
2.50 21.19 10 11.19 8.95
2.60 20.30 10 10.30 8.24
2.70 19.47 10 9.47 7.58
2.80 18.72 10 8.72 6.97
2.90 18.02 10 8.02 6.41
3.00 17.38 10 7.38 5.90
3.10 16.79 10 6.79 5.43
3.20 16.24 10 6.24 5.00
3.30 15.74 10 5.74 4.60
3.40 15.28 10 5.28 4.23
3.50 14.86 10 4.86 3.89
3.60 14.47 10 4.47 3.58
3.70 14.12 10 4.12 3.29
3.80 13.79 10 3.79 3.03
3.90 13.48 10 3.48 2.79
4.00 13.20 10 3.20 2.56
4.10 12.95 10 2.95 2.36
4.20 12.71 10 2.71 2.17
4.30 12.50 10 2.50 2.00
4.40 12.30 10 2.30 1.84
4.50 12.11 10 2.11 1.69
4.60 11.94 10 1.94 1.55
4.70 11.79 10 1.79 1.43
4.80 11.64 10 1.64 1.32
4.90 11.51 10 1.51 1.21
5.00 11.39 10 1.39 1.11
5.10 11.28 10 1.28 1.02
5.20 11.18 10 1.18 0.94
5.30 11.08 10 1.08 0.87
5.40 11.00 10 1.00 0.80
5.50 10.92 10 0.92 0.73
5.60 10.84 10 0.84 0.68
5.70 10.78 10 0.78 0.62
5.80 10.71 10 0.71 0.57
5.90 10.66 10 0.66 0.53
6.00 10.60 10 0.60 0.48
6.10 10.56 10 0.56 0.45
6.20 10.51 10 0.51 0.41
6.30 10.47 10 0.47 0.38
From Competing to Sharing
Thank you for sharing. I am learning along with you and this is really
great, as I think I too have an issue with control and so what you going
through really resonates with me.
It's a nice example that once you accept your wife to "medicate" herself
with TV she changes and prefers talking to you.
I wonder if you may have the same kind of patience with your son. While
I like your approach (changing yourself to be more interesting so that
he chooses you) over the authoritarian way (TURN OFF THE D---
COMPUTER!), somehow it just sounds to me that you are competing with the
computer game for your son's attention, and that seems to be a fruitless
Having an intimate relationship with someone who is VERY
interested in computer games (or books, or TTP, or basketball, or
cooking, or system dynamics, or travelling) does not require you being a
"better" choice. I feel that you can have a more intimate relationship
with him if you can accept him to be the way he is.
Granted my son is only 7 months old so I am definitely no expert, but I
wonder if you may consider accepting your son to be the way he is
(someone who loves computer games), and share how you feel about it with
him, and maybe also receive how he feels when he plays computer games.
As with any addiction (drugs, alcohol, procrastination ...), I think
there is always some kind of feelings that draw us there (or
alternatively, the other side of the coin is that by indulging
ourselves, we could avoid certain feelings), and so perhaps your son is
just seeking out virtual reality so that he doesn't have to feel the
pain or worry in his actual reality?
However way you choose to go, I support you and would love to hear your
results, as I am sure it is likely a problem I too have to deal with
down the road. Thanks for being the brave one to confront the issue and
carry out real-life experiment for us.
Thank you for sharing your insights.
Playing Video Games With Your Son
may be an alternative
to competing with video games
to win his attention.
From Control to Intimacy
Thank you very much for your support!
I am sending you my weekly report on my Big Wave.
I receive several comments and feedback from supporters and friends.
They help me a lot to understand the mistakes I make and to improve my
performance. A Tribe member sends me the line "Control does not work, go
for intimacy". This changes my whole approach. When I look for an
appropriated answer, instead of asking myself “is this answer
manipulative or not?”, I now ask myself “what is the best answer in
terms of intimate relationship?”. It reduces substantially the mental
work. However, I see that the responses are much faster, but not
I am much more open to mention my wife things that irritate me. Instead
of getting angry because she watches TV and ignores me, I ask her how
interesting the show is. Most of the times she finds it silly, she is
just trying to “disconnect” herself from the daily problems.
I then ask
her if she does not want to talk with me about that. The first days she
prefers watching TV. I start wondering how a relationship can work if
someone prefers the television to a talk. After three days, she switches
the TV set out and prefers a talk with me.
Am I manipulating her? Good question. I am expressing my needs. I accept
that she prefers other things to me. I evaluate the proportions. I think
if that is what I like and what I need. I accept her the way she is, and
wonder if I want to be with this kind of person. Then, she changes her
I see that my two younger children want to spend much more time with me
and less with TV or computer games.
My wife is worried and very angry at my oldest son playing computer too
many hours daily. I ask myself if we are offering him more interesting
alternatives. The answer is “no”. I discuss it with her. I cannot expect
an intimate relationship with my son if I am not less interesting than a
computer game! Since I cannot change the games, I have to change myself
to be more interesting than a virtual reality. Then, he can decide what
Somehow everything seems quite obvious…
Thank you for sharing your process.
Moving From Control-Centric Relating
to Intimacy-Centric Relating
is a gift to yourself
and to those around you.
More on Roadmaps
Actually I didn't sleep well last night, but for other reasons :-)
In any case, I am still pondering about the problem, and I wonder how
you arrive at a forgetting factor of ~5/9.
Here's another thing: if I just look at the Roadmap solution alone, it
actually seems to make sense, which is why it bothers me in the first
place. It seems logical that if it takes 0.875 days to forget half of
the words, and if there are 90 words to "forget", then after 0.875 days
you forget 45 words. After another 0.875 days, you forget another 22.5
words, and then 11.25, 5.625, 2.8125, 1.4 and 0.7 words respectively,
and so it does seem to make sense that one needs 7*0.875 = 6.125 days to
forget 90 words.
In order to understand the difference, I try to vary the variables.
Instead of a forgetting rate of 80%, I make it 99%. This way, using my
approach, I'd forget 89.1 words (0.99*(100-10)) after the first day,
close enough to 90 under Roadmap's interpretation. In the Roadmap way,
the half-life is 0.7/0.99 = 0.70707, and using the same calculation as
the previous paragraph but substitute 0.875 with 0.70707, we get 4.95
days, which seems clearly too slow.
I wonder if the difference comes from the half-life estimate is not
accurate (half-life is bounded to be at least 0.7 days), or if it is
because we are using different dt, or if it's because there's a constant
(10 in this case) that we need to subtract, or something else.
Ah, actually, could it be that the Roadmap's halving approach is similar
to the Zeno's paradox that Achilles can never run faster than the
I get TC = 5/9 by cursory inspection
of the behavior graph.
Thanks for being on my Big Wave support team. Since System Dynamics
mastery is also part of my Big Wave, I wonder if you share your insight
to this problem with me. There is this answer from Roadmap that kind of
bothers me as I disagree with them. I would appreciate if you may point
out the flaw in my thinking, or perhaps let me know your approach to
The question I have is from Roadmap 3.3 (Beginner Modeling Exercises
Section 3: Mental simulation of Negative Feedback), exercise 4. It's a
simple negative feedback problem:
"The figure below shows a simple model for forgetfulness. The more you
need to memorize, the more easily you forget. For instance, if you had
to memorize 100 phone numbers, it is likely that you will forget about
80 of them, since your brain has to keep track of too many numbers.
However, if you only had to memorize 10, you may not forget any.
numbers_remembered(t) = numbers_remembered(t - dt) + (- forgetting_rate)
* dt [numbers]
INIT numbers_remembered = 100 [numbers]
forgetting_rate = forgetting_fraction*gap [numbers/day]
forgetting_fraction = 0.8 [/day]
gap = numbers_remembered - minimum [numbers]
minimum = 10 (minimum is maximum number of
phone numbers you can
remember without forgetting any) [numbers]
1. What is the halving time for this model? (halving time = 0.7 * time
2. What is the goal in this model?
3. Use the halving time to approximate how many halving times it takes
to reach the goal."
So #1 is pretty straight-forward, 0.875 days, and that agrees with what
they give as the solution. #2 is also straight-forward, as it just
approaches 10 numbers asymptotically. #3 is a little ambiguous, as it
depends on what one means by "reaching the goal" - in theory it
approaches 10 by never get to 10. However, that is not my main concern.
According to the solution, "if you halve the gap, 90, 7 times, the
result is less than 1, which we consider a close enough approximation of
0. Thus it takes 7 * 0.875 = 6.125 days for the stock to come to
Well, the calculation doesn't make sense to me. If we start with 100
words and the "goal" is to get to 10 as we forget 80% of the "gap" each
day, then after the first day, we would have remember only 28, because
we forget 72 words ( 0.8*(100-10) ). After the second day, we remember
only 13.6 words (assume we allow fractional words), since we forget 14.4
(0.8 * (28-10)). Using the same calculation, after the third day, we
remember 10.72 words. Now according to the solution which accepts a
result less than 1 as "close enough" to be considered equilibrium, then
the fact we remember 10.72 words should be "close enough" to equilibrium
already, don't you think?
Can you tell me if you see anything wrong with my calculation, or would
you be able to explain the answer that Roadmap provides and how come it
disagrees with mine? Thanks.
It bothers me because it is such a simple problem and I don't think
Roadmap would have it wrong (after so many years and so many students),
so I am guessing it must be something I did wrong but it bothers me that
I don't see what's wrong with my calculation.
Nice catch !
The Roadmaps behavior solution seems to use
a forgetting factor of about 5/9 ~ 5.555
whereas the Roadmaps structure seems to use
a forgetting factor of .8.
Perhaps the roadmaps authors
might also have a forgetting factor.
Drugs and Gender
I attend a small group in [City]. Its been a great and wonderful
process. To become a great trader you need to become a whole human
being, his has been hard work in my case. I have, thanks to TT used it
to some extent.
My mum was
very stressed when she was carrying me because dad was out running
around and there were financial pressures, my mum got more and more
worked up and eventually confronted her husband at a Racecourse on a
Friday night. Dad's girlfriend was also there, they had a massive row
and her waters broke.
I was seven
weeks premature after already having suffered stress for much of the
I knew I was mixed up and had zero self esteem but it took me a year of
tribe to understand that I could have the confidence to address rather
than run away from my issues.
I actually did
have, for starters a severe attention deficit disorder that I had self-medicated. I had a whole series of addictions. Treatment with Ritalin
was a marvel, I was so much better.
time went by I realized that I had severe gender issues, I'm 6'2" and
not effeminate but really far more comfortable in the company of women,
in the final analysis. I can to understand once I could focus that the
stress had also resulted in fetal testosterone resistance and that my
deep brain structures had never switched to the male mode; that my male
persona was essentially fraudulent.
The real elephant in the room I was always dancing around and was that I
was transgendered and that shame and denial really wasn't the answer.
With the support of my shrinks and counselors I have begun therapy, it
is not so much as about how I appear but the way my brain works. Its
been 8 weeks and I was never more capable of volition. I stopped smoking
straight away after 30 years. I'm worried that my changing gender might
impact on the tribe.
I do want to understand how my experience fits with Seykota's notions of
the processes behind the tribes therapeutic power. I would hope that Ed
would agree that my concerns about messing with your heads and eroding
your masculine power and what I see as the incredible general competence
you all possess are just silly anxieties I should take to the hot seat.
I just want to get over the flu and feel secure about this thing and
work through it via my feelings and sensations and know I'm supported by
the tribe, both in theory and in the particulars of our meetings, it
wouldn't be fair to poison the well.
My question Ed is should I take a break from tribe?
There are a couple
of members who I think may be uncomfortable with the whole thing.
I'd like to think that these concerns are just something I should take
to the hot seat but I think a few words from you might help.
As you appear to be in therapy, you
might consider sharing your concerns with your therapist (s).
In any event, FAQ does not tell
people what they "should" do. See ground rules.
I am starting my first trading job on June 8. I do not belong to a
Tribe, but I want to tell you about some issues I have through
explaining my relationship with my "girlfriend."
She broke up with me in March '08 due to my behavior (ie. looking
through her phone, showing up unannounced at her work, and other things
of the sort). The feelings of having to know what she's doing, having to
know how she feels about me, and fear that she'll meet someone else
always seem to plague me.
Also, I always put myself in the position of
having to work my way back up. So, I would make a ton of mistakes which
would result in her breaking up with me and then having to prove myself
all over again. I always did this in school, where I would do poorly on
the first test and then have to Ace the following tests just to pull off
a decent grade.
I constantly have trouble with accepting her for who she is and
accepting what makes her happy. My feelings of not being able to let her
loose and trust the intimacy of our relationship ironically damages the
trust and tenderness we have.
Your quote of "everyone gets what they
want" is always playing in my head. I always ask myself what I want. Do
I want her to be happy or do I want her to be happy on my terms? It
seems that whenever she gives me another chance, I find myself fighting
hard not to revert back to my ways of having to know things.
Status of our relationship now: From May 14-17th we took a vacation to
[Country] (we also went in June '07). We had a great time with a lot of
laughter, intimacy, saying "I love you", and speaking about marriage in
the future (we have spoken about this before and since the break-up). So
one would call it a great situation now that I am on the path to being
trusted again ... but my feelings of having to know where we are in this
relationship are still there. AND I ASK HER WHAT WE ARE TWO DAYS AFTER
WE GOT BACK!! She was visibly annoyed as if she knew I was going to ask
her at some point and says she doesn't know and I grow increasingly
confused about how she can say she loves me and talk about marriage in
the future without being able to say we are officially back together.
She says that marriage isn't now or tomorrow, but in the distant future.
My ego grows stronger in saying that she is taking advantage of me and I
get angry, so I don't feel the feeling of sadness.
My feelings tell me that she is the one I want to be with forever, so I
want to correct these problems as soon as possible. But also, my
feelings of impatience for instant results, I fear, can hurt my growth.
You might consider taking your
feelings about <controlling others> to Tribe.
In our Tribe work, many people make
the transition from control-centric relating to intimacy-centric
The Positive Intention of Jealousy
is to protect your property.
Jealously guarding another person
implies you hold them as your property.
Computing Tea Leaves
On May 15 I wrote "I have, as always, to sleep a couple of times until
the feelings seed".
Three days ago I take a nap. I have a nightmare seeing an open position
and a red candle showing a loss. As I wake up I suddenly realize
- how to backtest my system using my current software,
- that the results of my system on European stock indexes are excellent,
hence I can manage a larger amount of money, and finally
- how to calculate the right amount of tea leaves when I make tea for
the whole family.
All three issues seem to be related somehow ...
Sounds like it's in the bag.
Double Dipping the Bag
is the Tea-Tea Process.
Wants to Help with FAQ
Thank you for sharing your frustration with your FAQ-related workload. I
have a lot of experience with formatting and reformatting text,
particularly for Web presentation. In the meeting, you briefly describe
some of the processes you employ to prepare contributors' emails for
publication. My impression is that they involve many repetitive, manual
steps that lend themselves to automation or semi-automation.
I wonder if you can describe the tools you are using and which
operations cause you the most frustration. Also, I wonder how many hours
per week is Batman spending preparing the left-hand column.
Thank you for your support.
Tribe Meeting Follow-Up
Thank you for yesterday. I really feel as though something has
wonderfully changed in my world. I called my father first thing in the
morning -no change there- but we shall see.
I'm on my way to [State]. I'll make a fuller report later. In the
meantime, thank you - I deeply appreciate your skill and kindness. I'm
worrying a bit about your health - if you want any help with that - heaven
knows I have a bunch of [City] medical contacts. I am willing to
Thank you for your support and
Joy of Math
[Inter-Support Group email]
Thank you for sharing your process.
Can you think of ways that you can make your son's arithmetic more
enjoyable. As Ed says, if it's fun he may want to do it.
I remember for childhood math is the card game cribbage. Because there
is lots of counting and you have to be fast in calculations, my dad
would play against me all the time (later he tells me it was his way to
get me to practice counting in my head). I believe I would be about your
son's age at this point (grade 4-5 i think). He says, if you win I pay
you a dollar, if I win you pay me 50 cents (I liked those odds), and is
was a great way to entice me to practice simple, yet fast number
Just a thought, I'm sure there are lots of ideas out there. I remember
enjoying this time with my dad.
Thank you for the suggestions on
making math fun.
I notice kids like to count money,
make change, divide it into shares and add commissions and fees.
Kids With Money
Father and Son
Thank you very much for your feedback and support. Your help is
invaluable. I’m sorry for the hiatus in reporting on my big wave and
supporting your own efforts.
A lot is going on. Things appear to be transforming. Life has suddenly
stepped up its pace. At times it’s a little disconcerting because I’m
not used to this.
The sense of potential associated with my Big Wave
overflows unbeknownst into all aspects of my life. The workshop’s
message of “staying in the Now” hits home and becomes all-pervading,
sometimes with unexpected consequences. I feel like a kid with unlimited
pocket-money let loose in a candy shop – running from aisle to aisle,
unable to choose; overawed by the never-before-imagined possibility of
having it all.
The desire to excise control out of my life and replace it with
acceptance and intimacy takes centre stage. My hot-seat during the
workshop has transformed something in my relationship with my eight year
old son. There is a new form of engagement between us.
He is reluctant to do extra work after school and before I attend the
TTP workshop I am adamant that he needs to improve his grades. I force
him to practice his times-tables and other arithmetic exercises daily.
Now, however, I realize that this is exactly the sort of control that
stands in the way of achieving true intimacy and communion between the
two of us. So, instead of the daily harangue aimed at exhorting him to
work harder, I tell him that I love him very much and accept him for who
he is. I tell him that I’m here to support him. And I tell him that I
respect his decisions and choices.
The test of my convictions arrives shortly thereafter as my son
exercises his newfound liberty and informs me of his decision to stop
the afterschool arithmetic practice. I respond by telling him that I
fully accept this. But the truth is that my acceptance goes no deeper
than my conscious-mind; Fred has a terrible time dealing with it. I feel
heat rising up my chest. The muscles of my back and neck start to freeze
up. My shoulders stiffen. I vent my built-up frustration at him by
scolding him for other, unrelated issues. Even as I discharge my anger,
the tension in my body refuses to dissipate.
Presently a flash of
insight occurs – I need to fully engage in the TTP process; I need to
receive my son more effectively. In the process I suddenly realize the
source of my own anger: it is fear. Fear of not doing my best for my
child. Fear of not giving him the resources he needs to cope with what
life throws at him. As these realizations hurtle through my mind,
recall Ed saying something to the effect that our kids learn from what
we do, not from what we say. How true is that! Suddenly my heart seems
to expand. The frustration evaporates, the shoulders start to relax. I
walk over to my son and introduce the concept of “checking-in” and
sharing our feelings. I tell him that I’m fine with his not doing the
math (and now I really am fine with it, even at a deeper level).
him that if he has any feelings associated with work he is free to share
them with me. And that I accept him regardless of what those feelings
are. I voluntarily share my feelings and apologize for blowing up on
him. I tell him how feelings have positive intentions designed to
protect us, if we would only allow them to flow through us. For once he
gives me time and listens to what I am saying – perhaps he senses the
intimacy and love. I tell him that feelings, even bad ones need to be
felt – I give him an example straight from an eight-year-old boy’s book:
I say feelings are like taking a dump – they might stink and not be
pleasant to look at; but without getting them out of our system we risk
getting sick. I see a flash of understanding in his eyes. Two days
later, he volunteers to do his arithmetic practice, but on a schedule of
his own making, and in a manner of his own choice.
Things move rapidly forward on my Big Wave as well. Feedback from my
support group makes me realize that the freedom I seek in my trading
comes from having confidence in it. And confidence comes from testing
the system thoroughly. I work non-stop on setting up a spreadsheet where
I can back-test my system across a range of different assets and over a
variety of time-periods. In the meantime, my problem with getting into
losing streaks with the current system appears to be ebbing.
As I begin the back-testing exercise, my definition of freedom evolves
further. Now I want a system that is fully non-discretionary. More
tumblers click into place inside me and I realize I need to test a whole
range of systems before deciding on the one that suits me. Presently I
start work on expanding my back-testing environment to incorporate the
new demands. As work proceeds I feel a sense of procrastination.
feel the pressure of not keeping my support group updated and not
supporting the members of the workshop whom I promised support. A sense
of anxiety overshadows me. My lower back develops a niggle. It’s a
surprise, since I go to the gym regularly and am in good shape. Chatting
with my dad and my sis (who have become vital members of my support
group) I realize that my anxiety has roots that go deep – something that
I want to take up with a Tribe.
I decide to check if the [City] tribe
still exists, or perhaps even start a new one, if the old one has been
disbanded. But shortly my back condition worsens, apparently induced by
overexertion in the gym – but I’m not sure if that’s the true cause. I
get a spasm so bad that I cannot stand upright. I take a day off from
work. The realization hits me that this back problem is nothing more
than the manifestation of a k-not – the very root of the anxiety that I
feel. Instead of trying to cope with the pain, I try to feel the pain.
The intensity is something I have never before experienced. I nearly
collapse. An intense feeling of fear and panic grips me. It feels as if
a giant hand grips my body and is about to snap my spine like a dry
twig. I breathe in gasps. I sense the fear is somehow associated with
the idea of completion, of arriving at my goal and not knowing what to
Little by little the fear ebbs. The next day the pain is much reduced. I
try going for a walk. It is hard work and every step sends a jolt of
pain up my back. But there is a deep realization inside me that this is
a k-not, and nothing more. I accept the feeling of pain. I don’t change
my posture to ease the jolts. A strange thing happens, the pain is still
there, but the hurt transforms into something else, almost a ticklish
sensation that makes me giggle and laugh. I notice that I am grinning as
I walk along the street. I spend the whole day out of the house, walking
perhaps 10 km. I come home and do some exercises, including stretching
the back and bench pressing. I write this update for my support group. I
feel virtually no pain in my back.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Evolving as a Parent
is the best gift
you can give your child.
I arrived from Reno and was completely full of joy and happiness and
totally decided to follow my BIG WAVE.
First day in [City] and the system was short and so my fund. Price
range on that day dropped to an important support and the position was
showing a profit, but I did not do anything because I told myself: "You
have to keep in line with your big wave and stick to the system
(normally I would cover near the support).
Well, then on the next day price went up, my system went long and
suddenly I froze, I just unfroze several days after and with a huge
With that I could not sleep for several days, I was feeling terrible and
crying for not following the system and mainly, feeling terrible to have
disappointed my supporters, my promise and my clients.
I could also experience a new feeling, the feeling of shame, shame for
not keep my promise.
Together with another member we started a tribe in [City] last week
and that already helped me a lot. Again I went to the hot seat and I
could experience new feelings with my failure.
Good suggestions that I received meanwhile: Willingness to follow the
system with a reduced position, no matter what happens. The other one is
to apply to the rock process to implement proactive rock and replace
So far by now again I am committed and have the Willingness for my BIG
This week I received 2 signals from the system and accept them without
any hesitation. It is already showing a good profit and it is amazing
the new feeling that I have now: How good is to experience that you do
not have control, that you can't control the market.
Sorry for have initially disappointed you and thank you for the support.
I will keep you guys posted.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Greetings from [Country].
I would like to join the [City] Tribe.
I complete two (2) Trading tribe workshops in Reno, 2006 & 2007 as well
as being a guest / pollinator at the Tribe on a couple of
occasions. I have read the Trading Tribe book and the FAQ questions and
I mention this to indicate that I have some knowledge with respect to
I am willing to work on my own (various) issues as well as help others
At this stage, I do not believe I can make it regularly every 2 weeks
due to the travel times involved, the basic logistics associated with
long distance international travel as well as some work related issues.
However, I can commit to a monthly attendance. (with some fortnightly
attendances a very definite possibility)
Please let me know if this is acceptable to both yourself and the Tribe.
If you like, I can call you at home to discuss the matter further.
You might consider monitoring this
site for information on IV Tribe meetings.
Connects with Brother
Namaste. I bow my head to you and seek your blessings.
This is further to my earlier post to you on May 05,2009 (which you
kindly gave the heading of "Becoming one with the
trading system") and your magnanimous response to the same. Your
response fills me with joy and bliss.
I also have the following to report : I follow my systems religiously
without exception - as part of my system, a week back, I take short
positions in some stocks. As a result of excellent political verdict,
markets gap up dramatically and I find myself in loss on those
positions. I recollect the wisdom given by you in FAQ of
Jan 01, 2009 (Does History can reflect
future) that back testing guides your response to the markets in the
ever evolving moment of now, I take my trades (cut short, go long -
exactly as my system would do) and find that there is very little that
stands between me and my trades. There is marginal delay but absolutely
no freeze in my response. I also note that I am quite comfortable if my
purchase has made a top mark for that period and my sale has made a
bottom mark for that period. For me, all that matters is that I must be
in the trade, if my systems indicate so. I also have to report that I
have almost forgotten to trade the old subjective way & there is no
temptation to do so.
After our telephone call with you on May 13 (in which you graciously give your
valuable time during our Tribe meeting in [Country]), I commit to extend
the TTP process in my personal life by being a good receiver and not
judge / label feelings with my interaction with people. I have issue with
my brother-in-law over his estranged family relation with his mother.
apply test of willingness - by first telling him that my talks with him
is out of concern and not interference & then by communicating with him
that I am willing to talk on a feelings basis. (This is over telephone
since he stays in a different city). Much to my surprise, my
brother-in-law, who normally is a closed person so far as feelings is
concerned, is willing to talk.
The tension in our relationship reduces,
he expresses his side of the relation with many labels and judgments. I
listen to him, help him to pour his feelings out and ensure that a
channel of communication is open between us. I now am confident that TTP
will improve my inter personal relationships and make me a better
I amaze at the TTP process. I am constantly staying in the ever evolving
moment of now, though I find that my mind often wanders into the past
and the future.
I feel highly indebted to you and once again convey infinite thanks to
Thank you for sharing your process.