November 21
- 30, 2009
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Contributors Say
(Quotes from Ed in Red) |
Ed Says |
Monday,
November 30, 2009
Out Of Date
Dear Mr. Seykota / Representative,
I recently have been turned on to the Turtle Tribe and was
interested in learning more about the website and the method of trading
and life.
I have come to
find that much of the content is out-of-date and was curious if
there was another site, or other materials that I could utilize to
increase my knowledge and awareness. I am incredibly eager to absorb as
much information as possible in order to become more knowledgeable about
Mr. Seykota’s theories and beliefs.
Thank you for any information that you can provide to me and any other
assistance. |
I know of
www.TurtleTrader.com and this
site, www.TradingTribe.com;
I do not know a a Turtle Tribe.
You might consider reviewing some of
the "out of date" notions such as:
using clear and accurate
language
trading with the trend
managing risk
and comparing them with their
"stylishly contemporary" upgrades. |
Monday,
November 30, 2009
Double
Digits
Dear Tribe;
My account was dizzyingly up on Wednesday in DOUBLE DIGITS. That felt
great- so I put in a bunch of stops over Thanksgiving, which triggered
the next morning. Now I am Up only 6%.
Being around the family has been wonderful. Everyone seems calmer,
happier and nicer than I have seen in years. I am assuming it is me. The
whole experience has been extremely absorbing,. I feel like I could make
a movie of it because I have experienced so many strong feelings, some
bad, most good, all absorbing.
D... I am glad I have this tribe, both great tribes. Thank you for your
support.
I will be changing my workouts next week.
A week of travel, or vacation, or what you will.
|
Thank you for sharing your process. |
Monday,
November 30, 2009
Moving and
Exponential Averages
Hi Ed,
In my pursuit of a trading system I have found that there are companies
on the web selling formulas for moving averages that they claim follow
the market better than any other. (And there was me thinking only of the
good old exponential.)
- For a medium term trend following system, is it possible to program a
moving average that works better than the exponential?
Also, if you have not already I thought you may enjoy the following book
that I recently read, as it is in the same vein as 'toxic parents' and
is rather good
http://www.amazon.co.uk/They-You-Up-
Survive-Family/dp/0747551561
many thanks.
|
Moving Averages and Exponential
Averages (technically, Exponential Lags) work similarly and with similar
results. |
Monday,
November 30, 2009
Working of
a System
Dear Ed and Support Team,
There have been no new system signals this week but two contracts have
rolled. I have realized that I need to track contract rolls in detail so
I have included a second worksheet which tracks the rolls and the
variations between the theoretical system results and the actual
results. This version is quite rough and the details are incomplete and
I am working on improvements. I now have rollover rules for quarterly
and monthly contracts.
There is a new (blank!) column called Trade Refs. I have realized that
my tracking method has been too simple and so I am working on a system
which will include key references. I am researching how to do this
professionally.
I have made slow process on the issue of how to create back-adjusted
files and I am now likely to have at least two data sets for
back-testing. One which is back-adjusted, and one which is simple
splicing. I am learning how to program Mechanica to deal with the second
method. I do not know if this is really necessary or not, in fact most
of the literature I could find suggests that it isn't, but when I ran my
own comparisons I found quite material differences from one method to
another.
I have resolved the problem with missing CAC contracts in CSI which was
caused by how they classify quarterly and monthly contracts and my lack
of understanding. I think I have also found what causes the bug on dates
changing in Excel which only happens if I change the file type.
Thank you for your support. |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
Sunday,
November 29, 2009
Comments go
Viral
Hello Ed and All,
Things have really picked up around here.
My comments on the US Dollar went viral then went Glen Beck radio then
TV then global.
We have had inquiries from [around the world].
I have been offered to write a forward for a book,
participate in an upcoming presidential campaign and received about 1
billion in money interest
these are investors with names and phone numbers that have opted in.
We have started bringing in money last week but am overwhelmed, and have
a 60 day backlog.
I have hired three interns and am process planning with team to include
predictive dialing etc.
We are also thinking that maybe an advisory relationship with a fund
complex might be easier and more fluid for general public assets-
We are also thinking of having multi tier levels
for fund participation that would encourage higher $dollar commitments.
Am anxious lately. Excited but nervous about my
ability to "handle " it all.
Am feeling that, then allowing it to pass-
I will be spending one week with a Tibetan lama that initiated me
as a child - at Odiyan in December.
|
Thank you for sharing your process. |
Sunday,
November 29, 2009
Developing
a Trading System
Ed,
Thank you all for the insights and suggestions following my updates.
They are very useful to me.
Since my last
update, I revisit my processes.
1. I review my
schedule that I post in my first update. The completion dates are my
projections into the future which I realize I cannot access.
Additionally, I notice that such deadlines helps me procrastinate and
also limiting. So I intend to spend 2 hours on weekdays and 4 hours on
weekend days on the project going with the flow.
I also add other steps to my project to account for how I intend to
stick to my system.
2. I revisit my system math and see that I am in error in my
calculations. I simulate several possibilities of ACAGR, DD and
recoveries from DD. I note that a return of 20% with draw down of 33%
and MAR of 0.6 is one that I feel most in alignment with. I do realize
that in reality, my feelings may be different than in simulation and
hence the need to develop a system to stick to my system as I allude to
above.
I also work on market selection, trend definition and entry rules.
1. I study average daily volume, margin requirement, volatility and
correlation. I notice volume increase especially in recent years but so
has money at play. I am not sure about optimum volume to define a liquid
or illiquid market. I consider equity to margin ratios but I am not sure
what I should consider adequate. Ed's clarification of moving average of
ATR / Price ratio as a comparison measure among different instruments is
greatly insightful.
I seek clarity on the use of volume to define liquidity and the use of
equity to margin ratio in market selection step.
I notice the importance of checking data for errors during this
exercise. I use CSI data. I notice duplicate, absent and weekend data.
2. The system's definition of a trend is: n-period price breakout up.
This is a long only system.
I intend to work on the entry rules and exit rules together and report
in my next update.
|
Thank you for sharing your process. |
Sunday,
November 29, 2009
Positive
Intention of Dread
Hi Ed,
At the last Reno Workshop you talk at length about the importance of
serving others. You posit that Right Livelihood is a communal activity
in which a person shares his unique gifts with the world. You assert
that life is meaningless without service. You surmise that life is
largely about working through problems so you can serve other people.
When I return home from the workshop I consider your words. I think
about my role in the world and ways in which I serve others. I recall as
a child feeling deeply gratified when helping my father mow the grass,
or helping my grandmother wash the dishes. I remember the pride I feel
from managing my own paper route, and selling magazines for my
elementary school. I recall the anguish I feel upon hearing my parents
state that I am "good for nothing" on occasions when I do something
wrong.
As I consider the ways in which I can serve others. I receive a
telephone call from a close friend. His wife is filing for divorce and
an important business deal is falling apart. We talk at length about
TTP. He states that he is willing to attend a local tribe meeting.
Though I am very busy with work, I fly out to meet him so I can
personally introduce him to the local tribe in his area. I think my
presence might support his process.
At the tribe meeting my focus is on my friend and his process. I feel
clear and do not think I have any feelings I want to address. As the
meeting progresses another tribe members addresses his feelings of
dread. Unexpectedly, as I support his process I also begin to feel
strong feelings of dread. I eventually take the hotseat and explore the
feeling.
As I experience my forms I realize that dread is a feeling I know well.
It is with me nearly every day of my life. As a child I love to play
when arriving home from school. I recall playing in the front yard for
hours with my friends, laughing, running, and enjoying the outdoors.
However, when the afternoon ends I know I must walk through the front
door and begin my homework. I hate homework. I do not understand why I
must do it. I do not like much of the subject matter. I do not like its
compulsory nature. I feel angry. I resist. I procrastinate. I do not
complete my homework. I then feel sad. I think my parents might be
right. Maybe I am good for nothing. I do not understand how my siblings
can do their homework so effortlessly. I think something must be wrong
with me.
As an adult I feel many of those same feelings. When my workday begins I
experience feelings of dread as I compile and work through my daily "to
do" list. I feel angry when I think about the many things I have to do.
I resist doing them. I procrastinate. I feel sad when I do not finish
the items on my "to do" list. I compare myself to other successful
people and wonder what is wrong with me.
While on the hotseat I realize an important pattern in my life. I feel
dread when I must do something I consider onerous. I then feel anger.
Sadness comes last. With the support of my tribe I recall these memories
and allow these feelings to wash over me one by one. However, after I
experience the last feeling - sadness - I am suddenly overtaken with
laughter. I see myself as a child struggling with homework. I see myself
as an adult struggling with my "to do" lists. I laugh at the absurdity
of it all. I giggle at the thought of both child and adult fretting over
these chores when a great, big world awaits their real contribution. I
realize that I am not broken at all for wanting to avoid these tasks.
After the tribe meeting I think about the positive intention of dread. I
realize that the feeling of dread is trying to call attention to my
actions. Dread is trying to keep me true to myself. Dread is trying to
show me what is important.
Now, when I feel dread I question what I am doing. I ask whether a task
is true to my intentions. I question whether it supports my desire to
serve others. I ask whether it is consistent with the person I want to
be.
Dread is now
my Right Livelihood Compass. |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
Sunday,
November 29, 2009
Progress
on Starting a Fund
Dear Support Team,
Thank you for supporting me in my Big Wave as I move towards right
livelihood. Over the past few months (particularly the fast few weeks) I
notice my dreams are now becoming reality. This is a very exciting time
for me and I am happy to have each of you part of my adventure. I
appreciate all comments and criticisms openly.
Progress:
1) I am near completion of the company Client Agreement. Developing this
is a great experience as I learn the importance of effective
communication and clear agreements.
2) I am now finalizing my company documents.
3) I now have a mission statement for my company. I appreciate any input
here. Mission Statement:
"To share our experience on systematic trend following with each
investor in our target market, support them in determining if our
services our appropriate, and serve those who are compatible with our
offering."
4) I spend time testing basic trend following system as a platform for
my system development. I have many "aha" moments in this process and use
this platform for next steps in system design.
5) I speak with friends and potential investors to develop awareness of
[Name] Capital Management.
6) I am now close to assembling a package to send to my current
shareholders on my progress.
Focus moving forward:
1) I intend to continue system design and optimization.
2) I intend to begin managing client money in January 2010.
3) I continue to love and support those in my life by serving them in
every way I can.
Thank you again for your support.
|
OK. |
Saturday,
November 28, 2009
Tribe for
Engineers
I spend most of this week talking to people about my engineering
tribe. I publish a document about engineers' emotions.
Example:
Shame
In the Real World:
Shame is the feeling that associates with failure to adhere to
community norms. Some communities have norms around clothing. Shame
informs people's decisions to wear clothes to work and, conversely,
no clothes to public showers. Individuals who try to block shame may
end up with too few or too many clothes on. We call people who block
shame, "shameless."
In Software:
Other communities have norms around coding practices, exception
handling, input validation, or naming conventions. An engineer who
tries to avoid shame may refuse to let his peers review his code. He
may resist source control and unit testing. He may resist criticism
and suggestions from his managers or users. His component gets less
auditing and testing than others. It is more likely to fail in
production, bringing big-time shame to its autho
I get very
interesting feedback on it. I am thinking about publishing the feedback
the way Ed publishes his FAQ.
4 people commit to attend my tribe's inaugural meeting this Wednesday.
I recall a recurring dream: I want to fire and can't -- sometimes I
can't pull the trigger, sometimes I pull and nothing happens, sometimes
I can't pull a gun from its holster.
This week I have the same dream, but it turns out different. Someone is
firing at me. I am trying to return fire but my gun double-feeds. I
clear the jam, but the gun double-feeds again. On the third or fourth
attempt, I get a round in the chamber and fire. I hit my opponent below
his right shoulder. The shooting stops.
Assets:
$564,090.31
Liabilities: $522,143.58
Net: $ 11,964.73
500oz goal: $583,250.00 |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
Friday,
November 27, 2009
Math Aha
Dear Ed,
I read the FAQ question about instantaneous compounding.
I ponder the formula instantaneous compounding and how it relates to the
standard compounding formula.
I need to refresh my memory.
I feel that I may have some confusion on this issue and my investigation
is possibly something I can share, in order to be of service to others.
Formula for compounding in my text book:
FV = PV(1+r/m)^m*n
where: FV = Future Value
PV = Present Value
r = stated annual interest rate
m = number of compounding periods per year
n = number of years
This formula can also be simplified into the one which most people
recognize and is the one that is most commonly referred to.
FV = PV(1+r)^n
Where: FV = Future Value
PV = Present Value
r = interest rate per compounding period, this being equal to the r/m in
the previous formula
n = number of compounding periods, this being equal to the m*n in the
previous formula
I refer to this formula as the “Usual” formula
We can normalize different interest rates and different compounding
periods into an Effective Annual Rate (EAR) for ease of comparison
Effective Annual Rate (EAR) +1 = (1+r/m)^m*n where n is equal to 1 year
Continuous compounding has a slightly different EAR formula:
EAR +1 = e^r
Where:
e = 2.71828183…
r = stated annual interest rate
Using an example of 10% stated annual interest rate I investigate the
effects of various compounding periods:
Calculate the EAR for a stated annual interest rate of 10% compounded:
semi-annually, quarterly, monthly, daily
Now I investigate Ed’s continuous compounding formula in the System Math
document.
Equity From
ICAGR
Equity = OriginalEquity * e (DateRangeInYears * ICAGR)
e = 2.71828183 …
For a $1,000.00 account with a 10% instantaneous annual rate, for 2
years:
Equity = 1000.00 * e (2 * .1) = 1221.40
I look at Ed’s formula, I look at the spreadsheet with the continuous
compounding comparatives.
“aha”
I notice the EAR +1 equivalent of the continuous compounding substitutes
for the (1+r/m)^m in my textbook formula. I recognize this is the e^r in
Ed’s formula.
The EAR+1 = e^r should replace the (1+r) in the usual formula where
continuous compounding is required. This should give the same result as
Ed’s formula.
I test this out
The results match. I am confident with the formula.
I am confident I can solve interest computations with compounding
problems.
I go back to tackle the FAQ problem referring to the exponential moving
average crosser system.
I now have the ability to check and deconstruct Ed’s system comparative
of 10% compounded continuously.
I perform the computation based on a starting equity of $1,000,000,
interest of 10% compounded continuously for 8493 days or 23.2685 years.
My result is 10,245,609.94 which doesn’t match Ed’s value of
32,716,679.04
I feel disappointment. No matter, I can deconstruct the formula and
solve for r to see what values Ed has used.
First I re-arrange the continuous compounding formula:
FV = PV*e^(r*n)
FV/PV = e^(r*n)
ln(FV/PV) = r*n
ln(FV/PV)/n = r
I solve for r using Ed’s given starting and ending equity values
I compute 15%
In the
instructions for the EA crossover system I see
Output
The system sketches the equity value, records the results in an equity
log, the essential computations in a metrics log and the trades in a
trade log.
For visual comparison, the system also sketches a curve of the initial
equity growing at a compound annual growth rate of 10% per year.
I look at the 150/15 performance log provided by Ed.
Ed has clearly stated ICAGR for the run as 15%
I feel foolish, I don’t care, this has been an extremely useful and
worthwhile exercise.
I am glad I have done it and I feel confident I can deal with any
compounding problems I am faced with. |
OK. |
Thursday,
November 26, 2009
Stash the
Flash
Dear Ed,
The more I read the Essentials Card or I listen to your song the more I
realized how unique you are in conveying deep thoughts in simple terms.
One passage however it is not clear to me.
As I read you saying on 19 November 2009:
“As essential rules for trading, File the News comes right after Stick
to the System.
If you have back tested your system there is no need to watch the news,
making it irrelevant and therefore one might consider the way to deal
with a "hot news flash" is to "stash it in the trash."
I notice that you say “watching the news is irrelevant” (totally agree).
I am wondering despite it is irrelevant, you still put “file the news”
among the essentials?.
The only possibility I see is if something is irrelevant (the news) the
act of filing or stashing it may still be essential and dealing with the
feelings which arise in doing so important too.
Thank you for your help
|
You are likely in place to receive
various types of news.
You have a variety of ways of
dealing with the receipt of news, including reacting to it, passing it
on, and discarding it (stashing it in the trash).

Stashing the Trash
is sometimes the best way
to deal with it.
Clip:
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/25/89104831_
20a47ce195.jpg?v=0
|
Thursday,
November 26, 2009
ATR / Price
Dear Ed,
On 19 Nov 2009 you reply to a Contributor:
"You might consider framing volatility as a ratio of a moving average of
ATR : price."
I am wondering if you are referring to "unadjusted", actual price for
stocks or futures.
In my experience the ratio ATR with unadjusted price works better but is
not perfect too. |
The idea is to normalize ATR with
Price so as to be able to compare volatilities from different
instruments.
The concept is not specific to the
method of adjusting price. |
Thursday,
November 26, 2009
Thank You!
Hi Ed,
Today I am thankful for much in my life. One of the things for which I
give thanks is your remarkable work. Due to your efforts, my life and
the lives of my family are much improved.
Thank you! |
Thank you for your acknowledgment
and support. |
Wednesday,
November 25, 2009
Hello all,
I know that the 26th is a US holiday, but I want to wish all of you a
Happy Thanksgiving. I am reflecting on what I am thankful for – my
friends and family and you. Thanks for being my support group!
Additionally, I am thankful for Love, Truth, Honesty, Simplicity,
Health, The Trading Tribe and TTP, all that makes a trend, Intention =
Results or Results = Intention.
I start working on a book with two local friends. I feel this helps me
with Right-Livelihood.
I continue to simulate trading and experience feelings.
I hope this finds you well! |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
Wednesday,
November 25, 2009
Baseball
Mr. Seykota,
Thank you for sharing your EcoNowMics study with us.
I begin and complete a trading system that I am implementing on January
1, 2010. It is slightly over two years since introducing myself to
trend-following and statistical thinking. Throughout the learning
process, I have many A-HA's and develop more trust towards
trend-trading.
I recall my career as a baseball pitcher. As I log more hours of
simulated practice and live game play, the more I learn about what my
body is capable of, how to get hitters out more efficiently, how to
adjust to the umpire's strike zone and other outside elements.
I come
across many pitchers with talent to propel to the next level, but fail
to do so. By observing these pitchers, I notice the majority refuse to
accept the fact that they cannot throw their fastball past the hitter on
every pitch. These pitchers typically wind up frustrated after getting
hit hard and giving up a lot of runs.
Assuming they do not take the time
to adjust their style, which many of these pitchers do not, they often
expend even more energy on trying to throw fastballs by hitters and get
hit even harder.
There are many other lessons I learn by playing
baseball that I incorporate into my philosophy and trading system.
I am wondering if you are willing to share a lesson you learn through
your journey.
Thank you. |
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider taking your
feelings about <batters hitting fast balls> and <whipsaws> to Tribe.

Baseball, lLke Making Pancakes
is game in which the cream
is either in the pitcher or the
batter.
Clip:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_eo2Equ6rnIk/
SFnvbB2x8oI/AAAAAAAABhY/mejZrIrTM9
g/s400/amandabeard1.jpg
|
Wednesday,
November 25, 2009
Giving Thanks
Dear Ed,
Thank you for your continuing support and your feedback. |
You are welcome. |
Tuesday,
November 24, 2009
I am excited about this coming Breathwork. One issue I am confronting
and mastering is the lack of consistency and intimacy with my goal or
purpose. I keep flip flopping on it. I bounce around with different time
frames and perspectives. I notice a couple things.
1. If I focus on what I get then the goal is causal. It is in the
fictitious future. If I do this, then I SHOULD get that. Do what ever it
takes NOW and the reward is in the future. Do not worry about the NOW
the goal is in the future.
2. If I think about my role serving others or my purpose, this naturally
brings me into the NOW. I can serve others NOW. Where this takes me, I
cannot know, it is in the future.
I do not realize this at first, but I am trying to control my future
goal rather that focus on being in my current role serving others. I
feel frustrated about not being able to control my goal/results. If feel
like I do not accept what I just wrote.
I keep on trying to work it backwards and trick it. I choose to keep
starting with the end result of what I get and figuring out what I need
to be to cause that. But, it stays in a fictitious place. I feel like I
cannot trust myself to get me there.
Somehow my now is not good enough,
so I need to give energy to a fictitious future me, who will have more
resources and know more than I do now. It seems like a basic change in
thinking. My goals do not serve me, I serve my goals. Be committed to
the journey not the end result. If my goals are just about what I get
then the journey is ignored. My goals are only worth the passion, time
and energy I put into them.
On a side note, I want to thank some of the other people posting on FAQ.
They are helpful.
I feel Ed has already gone over some of the concepts I
write about above, I want to share my progress with others.
Thanks Ed
for everything. |
One of the requirements for
participation in Breathwork Weekend is to define a specific service that
you provide to others - and that you would like to develop. |
Monday, November 23, 2009
Progress
Report
I land a speaking engagement and prepare for it as I have for many other
seminars.
I invite everyone I know who might be remotely interested, including
you.
I strive to show my best work and add extra capabilities to the software
I will use for a demo.
2 days before the event, everything breaks: first software, then
glasses, then digestive tract.
This time, I let the stress, anxiety, fear guide me towards solving the
problems.
The real progress is that I let myself experience the feelings –
centered around churning stomach, headache, tunnel vision at times.
I do not compound the problems by attempting to medicate, at least not
in ways I recall from many other seminars.
This is huge cause for celebration and maybe more important than the
fact that everything did get fixed in time and went fine.
Thank you for giving me support to experience my feelings.
I think it helped my stress tolerance a lot. |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
Monday, November 23, 2009 8:50 PM
Finding the
Joy
Hi Ed,
Part of the feedback I am getting from my Workshop support team is
that feelings of joy, excitement and pride are absent in my reports.
I
notice that my wife refers to me as Eeyore when she comments on my
joylessness.
I wonder about taking my judgments on these feelings to Breathwork.

Clip:
http://hillbuzz.org/2008/10/23/
adopt-an-eeyore/
|
You might consider identifying what
you find so enjoyable about not enjoying things. |
Monday, November 23, 2009 3:28 PM
Kelly
Hi Ed,
as always I appreciate a lot the great quality of your site.
On Monday, November 16 you say:
"Your use of an expectation formula such
as Expectation = (profit * probability of profit) - loss * (1- prob. of
profit) indicates you feel you can "predict" the probability of an
outcome.
Trend Traders do not attempt to predict
the non-existing future; they stay in the now and respond to trend
changes, in the moment of detection."
I'm a bit
confused: you insert the Kelly formula in your Risk Management paper and
also in the Kelly itself there's at least an element of probability /
prediction (es. Winning Payoff Rate). I wonder if using this formula is
not consistent with following the trend.
Thank you in advance |
Kelly, in the sense of the article,
gives another way to find optimal bet size.
It does not, in this sense, predict
anything.
You can, if you like, use a
toothbrush or a wagon wheel or a peanut butter sandwich to work your
prediction magic.

As Far as Prediction Tools Go
a toothbrush
is as good as any, and better than
some.
Clip:
http://www.coolbusinessideas.com/
toothbrush%20toys.bmp
|
Monday,
November 23, 2009
Uncle Point
Ed,
Concerning the "uncle point", may we use this term in the two sides?
I
mean during drawdown AND during "drawup" from the moment that the trader
quits and abandons his plan. |
You may use any term you like. |
Monday,
November 23, 2009
System
Testing
Dear Ed and Support Team,
Thanks again
to everyone who has given feedback to my progress. Sometimes it is only
a sentence or two, but it is helping and I am using it for direction.
Summary of this week included lots of reading, inputting a Turtle System
into Excel, and dealing with the feelings associated with both creating
the system (there is procrastination), the whipsaws in the systems
results (sense of loss and desire to break rules), and after writing
about my goals for Breathworks (frustration in amount of causal thinking
and self doubt).
I use the Turtle Trading System in the back of “Technical Analysis of
Stock Trends” as my model. The only data I have is from an excel spread
sheet on BRLC from TSP. So, I use that from Sept 03 through Sept 05. I
understand that statistically this sample is too small to prove
anything, but it is the process I am going for. It takes 3-4 hours to
complete.
In my first attempt I only I go both long and short trade and do not try
to pyramid any trades. This generated 30 in and out trades. There are 17
losers (57%) and 13 (43%) winners. It is interesting to note that after
completing this, it ended up with a net loss of $88.00. At this point I
notice that the last bet is not closed out due to not having a sell
signal. Once I cash that out, there is a $5171 net profit. I am sending
this out to get feed back, this is my first attempt, so maybe the whole
of this is off or maybe right on, please let me know.
Some things I notice based on a small amount of data:
1) Some large losses are due to only using closing prices. By staying on
top of trades, significant losses are avoided.
2) There is a feel that the system basically avoiding losing much money
while waiting for trends to emerge. In this example that represents two
years and 30 trades, it is the last one that creates all the profits.
Wow. Keep pulling the trigger. This is a nice introduction.
3) Volatility hurt this system. In the far right column I show the funds
at risk. It seems like this is a lagging indicator. The stock is showing
a smaller range this causes more funds to be at risk, then there is
volatility generating larger losses and then bet unit size is reduced
afterward. I used a consistent account size in my calculations.
4) I am surprised by the number or trades generated on one stock over
the course of two years (15 in and out trades a year). This brings up
some questions: How selective do I want my system to be? If it is
generation hundreds of trades everyday, what is the process I use to
decide which ones I go with? Heck, even it only has three trades a
month, what is my system for choosing my trades.
5) One must be ready to exit. This system tended to blow through the 10
day minimum a few times.
6) The pyramiding creates a lot of volatility. I am expecting this, but
it is beyond my expectations. My stomach feels funny.
My feelings:
* Scrolling down the spreadsheet I feel comfortable with the entry and
buying high. I feel very uncomfortable giving back profits. Even after
reading about it in books, I am surprised by the discomfort in giving
back profits.
* Another thing that does not seem right is that the stock trended down
from over 9.0 to 2.81 and is unprofitable when shorting it.
* I feel empowered setting it up on excel. It is easier then expected
(if the spreadsheet is correct). |
OK. |
Sunday,
November 22, 2009
The Secret
Secret
Hi Ed and
Everyone,
Hope you are well.
Last Sunday we had a tribe meeting in my local tribe and dealt with
issue. One of the members caught me and got me pretty good and I was
able to get to my secret. The funny thing was I did not even know that
was my secret. But when I was cornered, we all knew that was the secret.
They received my secret without Judgment. Actually encouraged me to feel
the feelings associate with it and open up more. I have an Aha that the
secret was an extension of the real issue that is controlling my
behavior. The session evolved in to getting to the real issue and I was
able to experience the judgment then and there.
Thank you to
the members of my local tribe. I am very grateful of their commitment
and support. It has been a week and I experiment with my medication
again however I have no interest or excitement that I used to get and
today I am happy to say that craving is completely disappeared.
I am in still
shock but I tell you that I am so joyful and confident about anything
and everything because I know if I can come on top from this, everything
else is a piece cake at least for me : -)
Yesterday my parents tried to control me by telling me how old they are
getting and anything could happen any day.. basically want me to
comeback to [Country] and see them for the holidays, I smiled and sent
them picture instead. Too much traveling this year so I told them not
this year. They seemed to be OK with that. I am happy I learned to say
NO.
Thank you Ed for sharing us great technology to deal with issues that
are so cunning and seems almost impossible deal. We enjoy evolving with
this technology in our tribe. Many of my proactive rocks that obtained
during IV meeting this year is starting to work very very well too.
Though I believe there is a positive intention of keeping a secret to an
extent, however not the secret I had. No thanks. Not in that format.
Anyway if you want to know what my secret was you are out of luck
because I don't have one anymore in the NOW.
Thank you for reading my email. |
You might check your intention of
telling people you have a secret and not telling them the secret.
You might consider taking your
feelings about <teasing people> to Tribe.

A Tease Gets Attention
by offering something
and then not delivering.
Clip:
http://www.becheeky.com/images/image
/_v3/blog/images/Madame%20V%20
Tease%20Me%20Please%20Me%20Set.jpg
|
Sunday,
November 22, 2009
Starting a
Fund
Dear Ed and Support Team,
Thank you for your ongoing support and encouragement.
I am busy
during the past two weeks working on finalizing our business plan,
pro-forma financials and legal documents.
We have two more weeks in the US and then heading back home to start our
fund!
The last 6 months in the US is a wonderful experience.
My focus over the next two weeks is:
1 - Marketing and Website material
2 - Packing and getting ready to go home!
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! |
OK. |
Sunday,
November 22, 2009
Riding the
Metals
Dear Tribe;
Happy Thanksgiving!
A big
traveling week. My account +7%. I do love having my account increase. My
worry about that is that most of my holdings are metals. Metals are
what's working now.
I feel as though I have gotten over the hump of whipsaws. I am
comfortable allowing the drawdown, or letting go of the stock- if it
comes back I will buy it again. If not , not.
4 days travel
4 days gym |
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might check to be sure you have
protective stops and that you can handle the risk. If not, you
might consider adjusting your position until you can handle the risk. |
Sunday,
November 22, 2009
Re-Framing
Dread
Dear Ed,
On November 11, 2009 you suggest I take my feelings of dread to my
tribe.
Other issues
come up that week and I think I should work on them instead as they seem
more urgent but I take the coaching you give me and work on dread. I
start by closing my eyes and I see myself walking down the street
heading home with a bad grade on my report card and know I am in for a
spanking when my dad gets home.
With the
encouragement of my tribe members I turn the feeling up feeling fear
first and then dread. Inside I feel like a small child powerless to do
anything except to go home and face the inevitable beating to come and
wishing somehow it would not happen.
As I keep
feeling that feeling of dread with my tribe members cheering me on, I
stop resisting it and keep turning it up as much as I can. After awhile
I find myself smiling and feeling very good inside. I realize that I am
creating my own misery. Suddenly I felt very adult about the whole
situation. How long could the spanking last, 1 minute, 3 minutes, 5
minutes?
I got out of
school around 3:30, dad got home at 6:00 ate supper first and then dealt
with me so I made myself miserable for around 3 hours or so for
something that only would last a couple minutes at most.
It then
occurred kind of silly to me, like a waste of time and humorous that I
would spend so much time feeling miserable dreading the punishment and
then afterward feeling sad for hours because it did actually happen.
The thing I
find most amazing about this hot seat is the internal switch I felt from
feeling like a helpless child to a much more adult way of feeling about
the issue.
Thanks Ed and
Tribe |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
Sunday,
November 22, 2009
Smiling and
Dialing
Ed,
Thank you for the guidance and advice on making sales calls.
I notice that friends and business associates are taking note of my
calls. This is the second email I receive this week asking when I will
be in town.
I truly appreciate your support. |
OK. |
Sunday,
November 22, 2009
Less Drugs,
More Benefits
Dear Ed,
Just to keep you updated: My Big Wave (= Social Confidence) is coming
along rather nicely thank you!
* Between my last post (2 months ago) and now, I do not attract ANY of
my old drama whatsoever. Not a single event.
* I haven’t suffered any back pain anymore. The lack of pain appears
intricately related to not being fussy about disappointing others from
time to time for my own benefit, or even pleasure. Many people do it all
the time. And I do too, at least occasionally.
* A side benefit (i.e. the Real Original Goal): Being a social being
again. Interacting, and enjoying it. Some people will hate my guts, but
so what? My whole drama is quickly turning into a non-issue. Wow!
Regarding my previous BW-update: Some things I life I try to minimize,
including nicotine, pot, e (the chemical version; not 2.71828) , cheap
porn, and the number of TV sets.
Now that I seem to get a grip on this whole process, my new Big Wave is:
I ensure my current apartment will be sold for One Billion Dollars.
My challenge here is not an obvious one. More on that later.
Thank you all for your continuing support, |
Thank you for sharing your process.
Your apartment is likely worth at
least one billion Zim-Bucks (Zimbabwe Dollars, now historical).
Unless your apartment is very, very
large, you might have to wait for a few inflation cycles to reach your
target price in US Dollars.

You Can Generally Get Your Price
if you wait a while.
Clip:
http://images.bidorbuy.co.za/user_images
/621/1102621_090508141053_Zim_10_
Trillion_Dollars.jpg
|
Saturday,
November 21, 2009
Pictures of
Switzerland
Dear Ed,
I thought you
would enjoy these pictures.
andrea.bocelli-zwitserland.pps (slide show)
|
Thank you for the pictures - and for
the memories. |
Back to the
future
|