from Ed in Red)
Wed, 14 Apr 2004
Just discovered this resource - could be "the something"
that is preventing from giving of myself - seems to be a calling - perhaps
one we all share
Can I register my interest to attend the workshop in May
Working on flights etc will come back asap
Can I electronically transfer funds rather than send a check please??
Much more reliable.
Does anyone have a current contact for [Name] - used to live in [City] - perhaps
my email could be passed on to him if that is appropriate.
you intend to actually attend, you can find instructions for registering on
the Workshop page.
might consider asking some of your friends if they consider you to be
might consider taking your feelings about commitment into TTP.
You Don't Really Mean It
can hedge, with words like
be, seems to be, perhaps
I'm registering my interest.
Tue, 13 Apr 2004
Our tribe also used "how do you feel" during the hot seat, but
after reading your 'pollinators' article we decided to cut it.
During our meeting
last night we used terms such as 'intensify or magnify', 'keep going' and
'go for it'. Are there other ways to keep the sender experiencing the
feeling without disturbing them? Should the receivers be trying to
mirror the sender or should they try to keep the sender in the feeling, or
On my own experience in the hot seat. After about 10 to 15 minutes I am
consciously pulling myself out of the feeling, never really getting deep
into it. My CM telling me that I should give the others a go on the hot
seat. This has happened twice. Is it inexperience or more the feeling of
"I don't want to do it"?, I suspect the latter.
Thanks so much for a great site.
how and why, asking for reasons and explanations, all trigger a return to
the conscious mind.
are no "right" or "wrong" words for receivers to use.
Your intention to support the sender typically shows up as language
appropriate to the evolving situation.
feeling of "I don't want to" is a natural part of the Process.
unwillingness is one of the basic activities of TTP - especially when we are
unwilling to do so.
don't want to go
a natural part of the process.
the guy on the hot seat
says he doesn't want to go
does want to go ...
he is on the hot seat.
Mon, 12 Apr 2004
Can TTP Be
Effectively Applied In The University Environment?
I recently posted a question on [Name] Forum, and one of the individuals
responding kindly suggested that I take a look at the Trading Tribe Process
(TPP) on your site. This weekend upon reading about TTP, I became very
excited about your unique approach. Afterwards, I knew that I needed to talk
with you because you would be an excellent source of invaluable insight and
advice on the following issue (I will keep it brief):
As you are well aware, America’s educational system is in crisis. I am a
professor in chemical engineering at [Name] University, and I have been
attempting to come up with a plan to effect a “quantum-jump”
improvement, if at all possible, in the teaching and learning of engineering
(as well as all) students.
At [Name] University, another faculty member and I have been evaluating the
effectiveness of our department’s undergraduate instructional program for
the last two years. What is clear from our preliminary research is that
significant changes in student attitudes and expectations are needed.
change must be made in the teaching of students, and there is neither
magic pill nor magic bullet for what needs to be done. The phrase that “Today’s
students are not the same as they were X years ago” is all too true. Our
studies conclude the real source of the problem is that the attitudes, the
expectations and the beliefs of students have dramatically changed.
Another complication is that the first two years of the “university
experience” reinforce the attitude, expectations, and beliefs of entering
freshman that college is merely an extension of high school. Clearly this is
the key reason that the expected student performance is no longer
achieved. Somehow these critical issues of undergraduate engineering
education must be addressed. Neither the students nor the faculty understand
the true origin of their failure to be successful.
My question for you, Ed, is “do you think it might be possible to
establish the 'equivalent' of Trading Tribes and employ TTP or some
modification thereof to freshman or undergraduate engineering students?”
It may be too crazy of an idea to use with college students, let alone
students just out of high school. What do you see as the key challenges
Do you have any
special comments on the tasks of designing a “peak performance course”
for undergraduate college students which would include a component of TTP?
At this time I am in the very early stages of preparing an engineering
education research proposal to the National Science Foundation (NSF), and I
am working to identify collaborators or consultants to participate in this
bold, innovative project. I certainly think what you are doing can be
utilized in some aspect of the university experience of students.
Going one step
further, several of us are tossing around the idea to develop down the road
an “Institute of Peak Performance” for enhanced teaching and learning of
both students and faculty. I think there is tremendous potential, but we
need to involve the expertise of others outside the university in order to
put together a successful proposal.
There are a number
of possibilities, and I would love to explore how we can learn from you in
some manner (in the short term) and incorporate your ideas, thoughts and
experience in what we propose to the National Science Foundation.
Ed, I thank you for your time and consideration. I am sorry if I rambled on,
but I became so excited as I think the concept of "Learning
Tribes" has so much to offer.
you can introduce TTP into your university environment - begin by applying
it to yourself - start and/or join a tribe - become an example of successful
is not a salve, medicine or method you can import to "fix" others
- although if you practice it yourself, others seem to improve.
example you might notice your post contains a lot of passive voice ...
TTP be effectively applied
is not achieved
might consider proceeding with TTP by re-writing your post in SVO-p.
studies, getting grants and hiring consultants are standard ways to avoid
dealing with the feelings of stagnation and suppression that permeate the
environments of many organizations.
organizations tend to hire consultants who subtly agree to not
around with the important issues. Their function is to make the bad
feelings go away, not to intensify them.
the members of an institution become willing to assist each other in
experiencing their feelings, the institution tends toward right livelihood.
now, you can (1) work on yourself and (2) continue authorizing studies,
conferences, meetings and writing official reports - as these are likely to
provide opportunities for you and your colleagues to experience your
experience the knot.
Mon, 12 Apr 2004
I wish to attend the TTP Workshop May 7-9. Please advise if there is still
Thanks in advance.
You may still enroll -
see the Workshop page, above.
Mon, 12 Apr 2004
Say what ?
see April 8:
FAQ For You.
Great work - I
admire your interaction with Mr. Critter-Sizer. A small-minded, less
tolerant person might have just said "FAQ You."
In TTP, we listen to
each other, and support each other in expressing our feelings, however they
Sun, 11 Apr 2004
Yes, your intention (to change intentions and get
nothing at all) seems to get the appropriate result.
I would like to congratulate you for your report in the Pollinators page. I
have found that it's much more clarifying than lots of blah, blah, blah ...
Thank you for sharing your journey with us.
With regard to the Charts page, while I think it is also a very good tool, I
would ask you if, perhaps, you could somehow share with us how it feels like
living through a drawdown, for instance, with a paradigm real system, rather
than selected trending charts.
I recall you
mentioning somewhere in FAQ that the trader might find joy in experiencing
and living through a drawdown. That's something difficult for me to grasp
(or to do). Usually I try to run away and avoid drawdowns, and I dislike
them very much.
Keep up the good work. While many "owners of the truth" may accuse
you of "blasphemy", there is nothing nobler than humility and
teaching through example.
I'm eating a pickle during a drawdown, the drawdown tastes a little salty, a
little tangy and it feels cool and wet and a bit crunchy. It also
sounds like an old-timey rag tune.
Taste Like Pickles
during the drawdown,
are eating a pickle
listening to Charles L. Johnson's
Dill Pickle Rag,
of watching the quotes.
Sun, 11 Apr 2004
Having noted the term "psychological debriefing" by one of your
posters, I did a Google search and found this paper by the British
The model by Raphael seems similar in intent to the TT method, but it
operates in the context of a "crisis" rather than a
Thank you for your continuing insights on your FAQ page. I am pleased to
say that indeed FAQ is diminishing in importance to me as it becomes a
passing AHA :-)
Debriefing, or PD, is a crisis intervention method that allows patients to
talk about their situations and to receive information about
"normal" responses to similar situations.
differs from TTP in that TTP views talking about a situation as just another
way to avoid fully experiencing the somatic dimensions of it. TTP does
not offer advice or recommend "normal" courses of action.
TTP aims to connect CM and Fred in dialog.
advantage of PD is that it does not require the therapist to engage
emotionally with the patient, and the therapist can therefore avoid the
"Cost of Caring." Another is that it fits with the Western
Medical Model of the the-rapist "fixing" the patient.
TTP, senders and receivers all engage the experience and all may learn and
grow from the insights.
Help Get Things
in the Open
where they can distract you
the real work.
Sat, 10 Apr 2004
Management and Leverage
How are you??
I have a question regarding leverage and would like to hear you opinion on
By using proper money management techniques along with leverage, I can
increase my profit potential while keeping my potential losses limited.
I also realize
that increased leverage also requires me to place wider stops so that I will
not be stopped out simply due to normal price fluctuations.
In the past 4
months with the new strategy, I feel comfortable with the increased
drawdowns and the overall strategy as a whole.
In general, I
feel that leverage could be used safely if it is complemented with proper
money management technique.
I notice that
leverage is not a topic you have discussed much on FAQ, and I would like to
know your opinions and insights on my hypothesis.
can be used safely if it is complemented with proper money management
is ambiguous. You do not define safe. You do not mention who uses leverage
or how he uses it. You do not say who is complementing how he
might try re-writing your hypothesis in SVO-p.
see the link to Risk Management, above.
Sat, 10 Apr 2004
I hope you are well.
I agree with most of your comments, on your latest reply and some of the
previous ones also.
Your observations about my character are very accurate, such as:
for gambling ... I like to play poker on weekends.
Being long and
short at the same time may indicate multiple personalities
feelings of making commitments,
about trying to control others.
last posting, showing a picture of some Nazis saluting their leader:
My childhood upbringing was very strict, and very disciplined as my father
was a sergeant in the army and his father was in the Navy in both world wars
(ships captain in world war 2) , and both attempted to bring military life
into the home.
I am aware of this
"sergeant" tendency which I have inherited and must admit to not
liking this side of my character very much. I also suspect that some others
do not like it much either. Apart from as you say, people who want a master.
I sometimes notice myself acting this way from time to time, and try to
correct my behavior accordingly.
Its interesting to consider how the make up of people is made up of partly
inherited traits, other traits gained through experience of life, and more
subtle things that are harder to understand the causes of.
We are having our first tribe meeting sometime next week, so I will follow
your suggestions and take these feelings into the process, I will let you
know how it goes.
I have had some responses from people regarding the [Name] tribe, and I am
in communications with them.
I don't agree with your hinting about me wanting to control the market, this
is not correct.
I merely intended to use the mathematical probability of X percent rise /
fall in N days, as a filter to help choose which signals to take, and which
You highlighted my words "I am definitely a trend following
trader" and commented that calculating the mathematical probability of
a stock rising or falling in the future is inconsistent with trend
Please can you elaborate on your reasons for this statement, as I am not
sure that I understand your meaning.
I do realize that my studies of this subject may not be entirely accurate or
mathematically correct, but I do feel they will help me to improve my winner
/ loser trade ratio, as my early testing has shown that it does improve the
The attached chart shows my system on a nice trending ... stock, if you
don't agree it is a trend following system then you and I have a different
concept of what a trend following system is. You seemed to hint that I am
not a trend following trader.
I use this example to illustrate how the probability UP indicator is showing
a low probability reading of a 3% rise in 25 days while the stock is in a
Also you can see that the sell signals have different probability ratings,
the first one shows a greater chance of a move down than the second one.
So as a filter, the second signal to sell could be used to exit long rather
than to enter a new short, because the odds of a move up were still better
Don't you agree it is useful to filter out bad signals? I am aware that it
this model is not always showing such good examples, so no need to point
I had a strange feeling come over me the other day, while I was short of the
market, and waiting for my short exit stop to get hit.
I said to myself, " If only this market would just make a big move,
then I would be able to buy some more property and do this and that ... etc
This alerted warning bells in my head, as I recalled a similar thought back
in 1997 just before I completely wiped out my trading account.
I think now that my subconscious mind was trying to tell me I need to take a
break for a while, because I actually did get the break I needed in 1997,
because I was wiped out. I am now flat apart from a few small
I am curious as to your reason for printing my comments from my last email
dated 28th March 04, that I requested you not to print?
Is this to make a point, that I cannot control people?
issues seem to revolve around authority. For example, your request
that I not print your letter directly confronts the ground rules (see Ground
Rules link, above).
claim to have a trend-following system. Meanwhile, you are busy
figuring out the "probabilities" of moves (looking into the
non-existing future.) Such analytics are incidental to
trend-following, and lead directly to breaking the rules.
might consider engaging your feelings about rules and authority with the
TTP. You might emerge into a new world where rules and authorities are your
you view TTP as just another set of rules, another opportunity to act out
your authority drama.
TTP to work for you, you might just have to trust your other Tribe members
to get you through to the other side (I know, that's another tough one for
any event, you can provide some excellent focus training for your receivers.
Being Able to Read
Not Reading Carefully
breaking the rules
Rats Break the Rules
having more pups than paps
28:12 = 233%
rule for mammals
about 1:2 = 50%
Book Promotes Rule #1,
break all the rules.
book is not clear
whether or not
are supposed to break Rule #1
Fri, 9 Apr 2004
Hi Mr. Seykota,
I received my B.S. degree in Computer Science and Engineering from
[University] in 2000. I was always interested in computers since my dad was
an engineer and I always loved playing computer games. My first full-time
job was at [Corporation] as an Application Engineer where I worked with
customers to fully utilize our software testing products. I was promoted to
Application Engineer II and left [Corporation] December of 2002 to pursue
I believed that with hard work and discipline, I would be able to succeed. I
have purchased, studied and read about two thousand dollars worth of trading
books. I have made many mistakes trying to trade stocks and futures and
close out positions at the end of the day. It has taken me over a year to
realize that day trading was not a reality.
“It has been our experience that exiting a trade at the close during the
same day of entry will usually destroy the profitability of just about any
trading strategy imaginable.” - Kelly Angle
“It takes time for profits to grow. Not holding overnight limits the
amount of time your investment has to grow. While sometimes the market will
open against you, if we are on the right track even more of the time the
market will open in our favor.” - Larry Williams
“Short-term trends have small moves, so the rewards
are small. Costs, such as commissions, spreads and slippage on stops, do not
decrease in proportion. Profits tend to roll off at higher trading
frequencies.” - Ed Seykota
The books that would best reflect what my current beliefs about trading
success are S&P 500 Trading Mastery by Kelly Angle, Long-Term Secrets to
Short-Term Trading by Larry William and How I made $2,000,000 in the Stock
Market by Nicolas Darvas.
I feel like your Trading Tribe web site has opened my eyes to reality and
has taught me what is really important in life. I pay attention to other
people’s feelings and also more understanding to what other people are
trying to say. I want to work hard at something that I enjoy and save up
money to invest with people who love to trade and manage funds.
I’m currently teaching English and Math part-time at an after school
daycare center. I’m also taking courses from [School] at night to pursue
some work in the health care industry. I enjoy the diversification, love to
learn new things and find working at the hospital very interesting.
I would be happy to be your client and invest 40,000.00 USD with you. My
only expectation is that my equity will increase and decrease following the
trend following programs that you have developed for your clients. Please
let me know if what steps are required if this is possible and they will be
I would be happy to go into details about anything you would like to know
You have touched many people’s lives by sharing your knowledge and I’m
ecstatic to be one of them.
careers in Application Engineering, Trading, Teaching Math, Teaching English
and Health care indicate you are flitting around right livelihood.
might consider what's standing between you and committing to one line of
work, in such a way that you can bring depth and joy to it.
returns for participating in a Tribe and finding right livelihood may be
even greater, and participation is free, so participation in a Tribe might
be another good investment for your discretionary moments of now.
some futures contracts may change in value by several thousand dollars in
one day. If you set $2,500 = 1/2 percent of your equity (a moderate
risk management fraction) you get $500,000 as a minimum account size for
Fri, 09 Apr 2004
Dear Ed Seykota,
Last night I attended my first group experience with TTP.
I have to tell you it was a challenge to overcome my logical mind and really
begin to let go of all of my defenses. All my natural protection
mechanisms came to the for front. Anger, frustration, LOGIC.
As the session progressed, like a relentless knocking at the door to my
pain, I was compelled to look inside. I started talking about things that,
until that point, held no place in my mind. I was surprised to hear myself
say some of the things I said.
Afterward I was very relaxed and the chain of thoughts that came up
for me upon leaving the session help to further focus some what I had
I want to thank you for contributing to my "getting to know
myself" I look forward to the next meeting.
crackers help break chains
as gasoline and propane.
as intuition and laughter.
Fri, 9 Apr 2004
copy to FAQ
Thanks for your kind words. When you are in the hot seat you are teaching me
- so thank you for being such a great teacher and being so fearless.
(note from member)
meeting. Learned from everyone. You're such a fabulous supportive coach. I
feel I am able to do hot seat so well because you mentor for me how to do
it. Ahas keep popping from various work at meeting. The biggest surprise
came during my hot seat. Couldn't have done it without you.
In Tribe Meetings, we tend to lose distinctions between teachers and
students - as we all surrender to the mysterious chemistry of experiencing
our feelings in the Now.
Fri, 09 Apr 2004
Thanks for sharing your article. Great help.
In the 3rd from the last paragraph, I discovered it read easier for me to
change "...keeping my commitment to get his work out ..."; to the
following, "... keeping my commitment to get this work out ..."
Enjoying being in the now about the May workshop process. Experiencing my
system in whole new light. Our local Tribe meetings further my experiencing
of my feelings around it.
you for the correction.
one of the intentions for the Workshop is to identify your trading system,
and to elevate the parts that contribute to success to consciousness and
equals the feelings
are unwilling to experience.
Fri, 9 Apr 2004
April 7 Charts
Hi Ed !
Great looking long term charts ! Couple of observations:
1. ADVP stopped trading on 24 March when acquired by CMX. Apparently they
liked the trend too!
2. I wonder about the slight bias for stocks in the first letters of the
alphabet to do better than later letters. A set of "A" stocks
outperforms a set of "Z" stocks. I notice 4 of the 8 charts here
begin with "A".
My theory is
fund managers pick stocks by going down alphabetically listed screens. By
the time they get to the later letters, they're out of money.
A few all-time high small caps I've bought recently:
I like your new-improved bigger font as well.
is statistically improbable for small samples to be statistically probable.
like to make up theories to "explain" such variations.
notice your own list has nary an "A" stock.
you like numbers to prove
welfare is good,
that it's a genocidal plague
the national soul ?