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Ed Seykota's FAQ
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Contributors Say Ed Says
Mar 29, 2018

Trading System

Hi Ed,

I am from Taiwan and knew you from Market Wizards about 15 years ago. Read the FAQ for many years. I think I am half a fundamentalist / trend follower, and want to share my process with you.

Here is my version of Ed's trading rule:

1.Cut losses: I set price stop loss almost all the time. There is one exception: Sometimes I can find extremely cheap stocks (e.g. long term dividend yield over 10%), especially when the market collapsed. I don't set price stop loss for those stocks since the company itself can generate cash, but fundamental stop loss (like lose the ability to earn cash).

2.Ride winners: I use some skill such as turtle soup to pick short term top/bottom, and use breakout/simple moving average to catch the trend. Parameter doesn't matter. (No magic number, just large enough to catch the major trend) 

3.Keep bets small: I use value-basis position sizing. I usually put 3-5% of asset into the sub-account and set 10% stop loss for each account. It means the risk of each position is 0.3-0.5%.

4.Follow the rules without question: I know in what situation my system works or not through history. I did some backtests many years ago. In recent years, I only read the paper online. There are so many professions did the back-test for us. Different time horizon, different area, different asset class, similar result. So I just follow what works in the long term.

5.Know when to break the rules: Statistically, buying cheap/strong stocks and selling expensive/weak stocks get positive return, so I select the stocks according to the researches. Sometimes I get invest ideas that do not meet the rules above, but if I think it is reasonable, I may still take positions. The only rule I will never break is "keep bets small". Have seen too many people wiped-out by a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

I can beat the benchmark (TAIEX. I trade Taiwan stocks mostly) with relatively low drawdown. I still feel sad when taking consecutive losses but it is acceptable since I don't take too much risk. The system I adopted suits me, so I sleep well at night.

I am satisfied with current situation. Thanks for all your insights for trading. It helps me a lot.

Best wishes,
Thank you for sharing your process and for explaining your trading method.
Mar 27, 2018

Guarantee

Dear Ed,

Hope all is well. I just wanted to show you YTD results, click here [link] and use the password [password]. Btw, S&P trading 20 points above the 200-day ma, a guarantee for the fun to continue! Best regards, 
Thank you for sending me the link.

FAQ does not ... post trader performance; see Ground Rules, above.

You might consider clarifying exactly how your "guarantee" works.

Mar 27, 2018

Wants System Evaluation

Hi Mr. Seykota. could you confirm if I'm starting from the correct variables to operate in the foreign exchange market?

I use the system below called supertrend. performing some tests on the MT4 found a good rate of return of around 60% in the last year in the GBP / USD when the price passes below the automatic indicator is a sale and when above a purchase, the stop loss goes on the line of the indicator  and the target for GBP/USD is 50 pips, and for the EUR/USD are 100 pips, i use and backtested in timeframe H1.

But as I know that you are one of the greatest operators in history I would like your sincere opinion.

thank you if you devote some time to the answer
and if you can pass some advice would thank you even more. My name is [Name] and I live in Brazil. I seek to get a better life through the trade following for myself and my family.

Thank you for asking about your own system.

FAQ does not ... recommend specific trading system parameters; see Ground Rules, above.

You can answer your own questions through back testing.

You might begin by defining what you mean by "correct variables."

You might also consider taking your feelings about <correct> to Tribe as an entry Point.
Mar 26, 2018

Trends in Trends

Ed,

Every investment strategy experiences winning and losing streaks. They all take turns at the front and back of the line. Trend following has been sitting near the back of the line for the past 5-10 years, while stocks sit near the front.

This, while annoying, can happen from time to time. The next 5-10 years may not look like the past 5-10 years. Maybe stocks chop around for a while and commodities trend well. Maybe stocks and bonds both decline while commodities and currencies rise. Who knows. 

I believe it’s important to maintain perspective and remember that trends come and go.


Trend-Trading Results
1987-2018

https://medium.com/@mmelissinos/
trends-have-trends-663ce5e8379f

Thank you for sharing this study.
Mar 25, 2018

Wants to Join a Tribe

Hi,

I am interested in joining a Tribe or attending a conference or visiting a Tribe. 

I see the website was update in 2016, so checking if there is anything in Kentucky or what exists that I may visit?  Thank you.  I am a fan trend following.
Thank you for inquiring about attending a Tribe meeting.

You may check the Tribe Directory for Tribes in your area. You may also order The Trading Tribe and start your own Tribe.
Mar 24, 1018

Wants to Join a Live Community

Greetings,

I've been studying TA, price action, indicators and different systems for years now and none of those convinced me, even though I analysed and tested them. I'm incredibly fascinated by trading but I must say this journey has been quite frustrating so far.

I've came across trend following, its system and philosophy, on many different websites but mainly from Michael Covel's book. It sounded true from the beginning. No secret formulas, no future prediction. It is so simple and logical that one might believe it's impossible. We tend to believe the most complicated solutions are the right ones.

In all the sources I searched Ed Seykota would come up being mentioned as one the main adepts and a reference when it comes to trend following. To be honest what really got my attention was Ed's objective replies to participants on a conference about trading. They really made me think: "man, we really overcomplicate things".

I would like to be part of this community, and I'm contacting you to know if there are channels trend following philosophy is discussed and debated. If there are I really would like to participate. I'm not searching for investment advice on stocks or any market, I'm looking for real knowledge.

Appreciate your attention,

Best Regards!

Thank you for sharing your process.

FAQ provides a community, of sorts, in which people can share their processes with others - anonymously - and inspire each other to deal with rather deep issues.

I personally edit and format the contributions - and write the replies.

This anonymous format provides safety for people who wish to share deeply intimate aspects of their processes.

You might can find active, live channels on the web that allow you to interact with other traders in real-time, mode.  



Mar 24, 2018

Gratitude

Dear Ed,

Thank you very much for all of your previous feedback emails. You and [Name] have changed my life a lot. [Name] helped me to start the journey and you helped me finish it. I am experiencing so much gratitude towards both of you. I love both of you so much. I wish you both a long and happy life.   

Thanks again,
Thank you for acknowledging me and the work and also yourself and your progress.
Mar 24, 2018

Austin Tribe

Dear Mr. Seykotoa,

I learned about you through the Turtle Trader podcast and through your TT website.

I have been looking for a mentor to learn to invest and to trade. I'm based in Dallas TX and I would love to attend the workshop in Austin. (I'm guessing there is no workshop in Dallas.) I am so excited to see you are in Texas.

I have been investing in US equity since 2008. I think I have been lucky riding the bull market, but I know going forward, I must learn and adopt.

I feel confused by current market and I know I need to buckle down and learn from solid investors. I'm especially interested in learning from you because of your clear thinking and taking emotion out of investing.

Thank you for taking time to read my email. Please advise what information I can provide and what pre-work must be done.
 
Sincerely,
Thank you for reaching out to me about the Austin Tribe.

I occasionally host an Austin Tribe for people with considerable tribe experience, who wish to extend the technology.

I don't recommend taking the emotion out of investing.  

First, the emotion does not live in the investing; it lives in the investor.

Second, I don't recommend taking emotions out of anything; I recommend celebrating feelings and aligning with their positive intentions.

You might consider reading over the FAQ pages to get the hang of how things work around here.

Mar 23, 2018

Clean Heart
Greetings,


I've been studying TA, price action, indicators and different systems for years now and none of those convinced me, even though I analysed and tested them. I'm incredibly fascinated by trading but I must say this journey has been quite frustrating so far.

I've came across trend following, its system and philosophy, on many different websites but mainly from Michael Covel's book. It sounded true from the beginning. No secret formulas, no future prediction. It is so simple and logical that one might believe it's impossible. We tend to believe the most complicated solutions are the right ones.

In all the sources I searched Ed Seykota would come up being mentioned as one the main adepts and a reference when it comes to trend following. To be honest what really got my attention was Ed's objective replies to participants on a conference about trading. They really made me think: "man, we really overcomplicate things".

I would like to be part of this community, and I'm contacting you to know if there are channels trend following philosophy is discussed and debated. If there are I really would like to participate. I'm not searching for investment advice on stocks or any market, I'm looking for real knowledge.


Appreciate your attention,

Best Regards!

Hi Ed,

I would like to ask for your help in cleaning my heart, like you did last time.
Thank you for raising this issue.

You might consider taking your feelings about <clean heart> to Tribe as an entry point.
Mar 20, 2018

Some Quotes

Ed,

Here is an article I wrote about your in 2015 http://quantitrader.com/traders-stories/
ed-seykota-wisdom/
Thank you for sending me the link.
Mar 19,2018

#HODLGANG

Ed,

I notice this video comes out around the highs of the price of bitcoin.

HODL, apparently a typo for the word, HOLD, seems to stick in the crypto community.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZYZoQQ6LJQ
Thank you for sending me this video and for pointing out the timing of its appearance.
Mar 19, 2018

Clarity

Hi Ed,

I know you are thinking about writing a book on TTP and health. I look forward to reading it.

There is a huge missing piece in the 'fitness' industry about what is in our head that causes us to be stuck or unstuck, rather than relying on discipline. I'm not an expert in life, but if you would like someone to read through it before you publish it, I'd be honoured to.

I struggled to make the below FAQ entry shorter without losing important elements of what I wanted to say, because I feel that clarity impacted my life in so many ways. Feel free to cut sections out. The goal here is to share my story and how my mind changed after the Trading Tribe.

At 3 months old my daughter [Name] already knew she had to hit the keys on the piano herself to hear the sounds!

- - -


My FAQ Entry:

I want to share my own recent experience of the importance of having immaculate clarity when defining what you want for yourself.

I managed to successfully dedicate 8 years of my 30s making relationship choices and decisions that did not result in a stable relationship and having a family.

I did the same thing in both relationships in those years. I didn't like to jump around in relationships so I thought I had to make a relationship work, regardless of the impact it had to my life and health. These are the rocks that I had accepted by my family growing up. I think I collected them all (rocks) and stored them in my head. Only someone with rocks in their head would have tolerated what I did.

The Trading Tribe in Australia helped loosen up my beliefs that were keeping me stuck and on the mouse wheel when I made relationship decisions.

The Tribe in Texas with Ed was the pinnacle in pulling out any other 'unproductive thought weeds' by the roots so I could finally understand myself and be conscious of what it was I really wanted, what decisions I should and should not be making, and what that meant for me for my future - which is where I am today.

In November 2015 I had traveled to the U.S.A from Australia and was grateful to join Ed and a handful of others for a Tribe in Texas. I returned back to Australia in February 2016.

After the Tribe in Texas, I was clear in my mind about what I wanted. At the time I didn't feel like being in a relationship anymore, but if I was going to be in one in the future, at a high level - I wanted to be in a stable relationship, get married, and have children together.

It took another 2 months for me to write this down on paper.

In April 2016 - I wrote down specifically that I wanted to be married to a tall man with brown hair and brown eyes, who looks after his body, is a friend to me, a lover, a partner in life, in his 30s and we have 2 healthy biological children together.

I wanted to rule out problems that I had had in relationships with someone older, with someone who had been married before, or had children with someone else. This dynamic may work for many people, but I decided this was not for me. I already had 8 years of 'trying' to make this work for me for 2 relationships. When you are in your 30s, this is precious time to waste trying to stay in a situation that doesn't make any sense. I had enough.

4 weeks after I wrote down exactly what I wanted, I met this person while playing backgammon. I didn't know it at the time. I had never defined anything so specific before in with regards to relationships, especially on paper,  and I never looked for anyone. So the idea of defining what I wanted in someone seemed ridiculous and awkward.

What I was doing was not working for me, so how could I go more wrong in defining exactly what I wanted? I was 39 years old. Very experienced at getting things wrong.

9 months later we got married. Luck, or Clarity?

9 months after that we had a baby girl. Luck, or Clarity?

In 'theory' my view was that I should get pregnant straight away. However the doctor had other thoughts. Even though I looked after myself nutritionally and trained in the gym for years before I got pregnant, the doctor's advice was that at 39yo, I have a low chance of getting pregnant, and a high chance of birth defects. I wasn't interested in the doctors views. I got pregnant immediately. Luck, or Clarity?

Early in the pregnancy I was in pain and had to have an early ultrasound. I was told by the 'best' Ultrasound doctors that I was in fact 7 weeks pregnant, I was going to hemorrhage and that my daughter had no heart beat and had died. 

This was the day before my birthday. This 'story' didn't make sense to me because I knew my health better than anyone and I was sure I was only 5.5 weeks pregnant which meant the baby's heart had not developed yet.

I have always been clear about my health and understood where my body is at. I had to wait 10 days to have another test to determine what was happening. Meanwhile my doctor prepared me on what to do if I hemorrhaged and what the process would be.

This was not fun. In those 10 days, I was the only person that had faith that my baby was still too little to have a heart. 10 days later it was confirmed that I was right, and today I have a beautiful baby girl with a big heart and smile, with immaculate health and focus. My labour to the birth of my baby was only 13 hours from start to finish - no pain medications. I know this was clarity!

I was quite familiar to accepting the feelings of others as my own. After the tribe in Texas, this wasn't me anymore.

Above I didn't mention that I had also written that I wanted a chef one day to look after my nutrition for training, and that when I had children, I want them to learn the piano. My husband is that chef - and loves cooking. He also is a musician, composer, pianist, and vocal coach to celebrities and has written music for international artists. I don't know if this was luck or clarity, but I feel very lucky.

How did I get all this that I wanted? I finally understood and believed in my blood that I deserved it, and I was clear in exactly what I did NOT deserve.

I can only imagine where I would be today if I hadn't met the amazing people at the Tribe. Maybe still 'settling' for some second rate life because I didn't want to get off the mouse wheel it was clear I felt I deserved to stay on it. If you do not know what you want, then you will accept a lot of the stuff in life in front of you, and life will be much harder than it needs to be.

Clarity is a powerful filter.

For me this was in relationships, but this applies to finance, health, fitness, and any other area of your life you are stuck in.









Some 3-Month-Old Daughters

can play the piano.




Thank you for sharing your process and the inspirational example of attaining right livelihood - and for acknowledging TTP.
March 16, 2018

John Oliver on Crypto Currencies

Ed,

You might like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6iDZspbRMg

Thank you for sending me the clip.

You might consider implementing risk control when the comedians start to make more sense than the economists.
March 16, 2018

The Joy of Cutting Losses

Mr Seykota

I am reaching out to you because I understand that you knew [Name].

He died suddenly last May, and I am an attorney that is involved with litigation concerning his estate.

A friend of his said that [Name] told him that you and [Name] had talked together a lot about trading.  You might like to know that his estate currently has a value of around $120,000,000.

I would like to talk to you to get your thoughts on [Name] and to confirm that the terms of his will [omit] seem consistent with what you remember about him.


Thank you for reaching out to me.

I recall him having a particular fondness for cutting losses - and the ability to integrate risk control as part of a larger spiritual cycle.  
I recall him having specific names for trading phases. For example, he would sometimes "feed the church" (joyously cut losses) and he would sometimes "ring the bell" (make large gains).

His joyful acceptance of losses may in some way help understand his ability to anticipate the inevitability of large gains and his entitlement to receive them.

The terms of his will seem consistent to me.
March 14, 2018

Feelings as Body Sensations

Dear Sir,

Thank You for highlighting the importance of our feelings & how to convert them from adversaries to allies.

I never considered bodily sensations as feelings. Even during "good" feelings when there was warmth across my chest, a tremble in my voice accompanied with a high pitch, goosebumps on my hands, I'd deliberately tighten my muscles, considering myself "sick".

For a very long duration, life felt colorless, and I simply drifted along and thought that feelings were just thoughts.

Only "extreme" events (containing high drama) would make me "feel". I kept myslef medicated heavily with alcohol, ciggarates, porn, books & even FAQ's.

But recently something clicked, when I was able to shut down thoughts and focus on the sensations in my body.

An initial change began around the time I attended my first (& only) Tribe meeting in July last year when my "form" was stamping my feet. I did that for some 10 minutes but could feel no shift. I thought it was all and was disappointed because I did not reach the fabled "Zero Point".

But reading FAQ's intermittently & another contributors "Focussing" description helped me.

I now make statements in SVO-p, for example "I enjoy winning" & feel for any somatic changes.

I Thank You & all FAQ Contributors for the life changing insights.

Regards,
Thank you for sharing your process and your insights.
March 14, 2018

Checking In and Up

Dear Chief Ed,

Trust all is well with you and your family.

Sincerely,
Thank you for checking in and for checking up on me.

So far so good.
March 13, 2018

New Mumbai Tribe

Dear Sir,

Please find the TTID for a new Mumbai Tribe attached,

Regards,
Thank you for sending me your TTID for posting to the Tribe Directory.
March 13, 2018

Wants to Fix Feelings

Hi Ed,

I'm wondering how do I fix feelings of belonging and self worth? I guess I would like to prevent self sabotage

I think a lot of people deal with this kind of stuff. I wonder if you can help with this.

I'm currently looking for investment into a building tourism project and I want to make sure things go well. I might have latent feeling about self worth and stuff that I need to work on as this project continues.

Would appreciate your help and feedback,

- - -

I would like to release my feelings of not good enough.

- - -

Thanks for taking the time to read this.

Thank you for raising this issue.

In TTP we do not aim to "fix" feelings.  We aim to accept them and form alliances with them and to capitalize on their positive intentions.

You might consider taking you feelings about <belonging> and <self worth> to Tribe as entry points.
March 8, 2018

Faith and Conviction

Ed,

I used to run a stock signals service. But what amazed me was despite charging high prices and telling people they had to stock with my stop losses and targets ... not one person ever did.

The number of time i would tell them to sell a stock only for them to say "I sold out last year ..."

So, it seems people have little faith and not enough conviction when following someone else's system.

Most people micro manage their stocks. Reading and reacting top every dip and surge. Seems it's a battle that cannot be won.

I am trading a very small number of accounts and finished with everything else.

All the best for 2018.

Thank you for sharing your process.
Mar 7, 2018

Wants to Stay in the Present

Hi Ed,

I wonder if you'd be willing to work with me on reshaping my life.

There are some cycles in my life that I would like to change and some response patterns. Mainly, when thing feel hopeless and I shut down.

I need to make a shift in my cycle. I would like to stop any kind of feelings medication.

Would appreciate your help,

- - -

I have a thought that since everything is vibration. Staying in the past is low vibration, then staying in the now is probably the highest vibration.

How do you keep yourself in the present moment?

When I meet you a couple of times, I felt like the room lit up and maybe that comes from the energy of being present and extra aware.

I would like to learn how to do this.

Thank you for raising this issue.

You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to stay in the present> to Tribe as an entry point.
Mar 6, 2018

Commodity/Stock Ratio

Ed,

You might like to know that we have commodities at an all-time-low relative to stocks.



1970 - 2018

Attribution: Bloomberg

Thank you for sharing your observation.


Mar 5, 2018

Leadership

Ed,

Thank you for your feedback.  And thank you for speaking my “language” - I love your model for returns based on system refinement work vs psychology work.  Reading it I feel the same kind of mystery and wonder as watching the movie The Matrix for the first time.  I feel like I am sitting in front of Morpheus being offered the choice of the blue or red pill (“you take the red pill, you stay in wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes”). 


Needing a Leader

I don’t think needing a leader is quite the way I feel.  My issue is more adequacy to the role - if I’m as low as a “3” on the psychology scale how good of a leader will I be?  I don’t know (nor do I know if I really am that low).  Maybe my name can be 3 of 10 😊 (shameless Star Trek Voyager reference / bad joke).  I am willing to take the risk. 

I re-read Trading Tribe which I read last about a decade ago.  I find that many of the things that seemed too extraordinary in the book based on my highlights and notes from back then now seem very reasonable. 

I imagine a lot about the way a Trading Tribe would feel in my house, what I would do, what others would do, who would I ask to attend, how many random inquiries would I get, etc. 

Thinking of starting a Trading Tribe I am scared, nervous and excited.  I have attached a Trading Tribe Informational document to start a tribe at my home in Port Orchard, WA.  Can you please post this on the Trading Tribe site?  I’d like to attend to a TT Workshop.  Do you have plans in place for the next one?  Is there anything else you recommend like attending another Tribe as a guest? 


Feelings vs Complexity

At first your feedback “running away from your feelings and into complexity” doesn’t seem right and I bristle a little at it.  I am a well-adjusted person with healthy relationships, no addictions, no serious obsessions, and I feel like the systems I create are not complex; rather they are very basic using trend following.  But I think about this feedback a lot and realize there is a lot of truth there.  

I look at my system critically and I decide to eliminate a more complex subsystem, “All Time High Stocks”, that I probably create to medicate “FOMO” for the big win like the next Apple or Dell, and also for the daily excitement of the ups and downs of individual stocks.  This subsystem I eliminate is also complex because of the vast universe of stocks and the complexity required to manage each one when a moderately performing security is replaced.  So the subsystem takes up too much of my time, doesn’t contribute enough to return and is too correlated to other, better subsystems.  I realize that I shouldn’t have added it in the first place.  

I think about what else I might have done/not done in choosing complexity instead of feeling my feelings.  Another thing I come up with… When my system is in a drawdown I often feel nervous and anxious with tension in my neck; I feel I should cut position size or exit some fast moving losing positions.  Instead of acknowledging these feelings my typical response is to use this time to ignore the feelings and to research new systems (aka potentially add complexity). 

But now I think about the feelings vs complexity feedback you give me.  What if instead of adding complexity I find a way to acknowledge the feeling of too much heat and incorporate it into my system.  I test several things and find that at the portfolio level if I trend follow myself and stop trading the worst performing subsystem and add slightly to my position on the best performing subsystem at all times, I reduce heat, reduce draw down and add to CAGR!  This approach allows me to recognize, feel, and act on my feelings.  I feel this approach aligns my system more to me as an individual.  Trend following and cutting losses at multiple levels reminds me of the possible literal meaning of “1)cutting losses, 2)cutting losses, 3)cutting losses” from your Schwager interview question on the elements of good trading.  Also the Mandelbrot set and your poem Borderline, and this Jonathan Coulton song I think you might enjoy:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDU40eUcTj0

 
Ed thank you for this valuable feedback which helps me improve.  I’ll continue to watch for this in how I follow my system and generally in my interactions with others.
 

No ordinary bubble

I do think of bitcoin as no ordinary bubble, as you mention.  Mainly my reasoning is that it has gone through multiple boom/bust cycles and yet keeps coming back.  3 times now it has had a >10x boom: ’11 ’14 ’17. (This is unlike most other bubbles which seem to have at most 1 smaller echo boom).  Bitcoin feels more like a long term equity bull market but with 3x the volatility, making it seem each time that it corrects that it is “popping”.  I do believe bitcoin is in a bubble; I think it is just still on the “left side” of the peak with the uniqueness of high volatility.  But maybe 1 large bubble instead of 3 smaller bubbles is simply semantics.  Or maybe I’m wrong and the current correction cycle starting Dec’17 is the final move down. 

My views of no ordinary bubble don’t matter for my trading.  I have a system and despite my belief I exit my crypto positions with a large net profit overall (though loss for 2018).  While I am out of the market in Feb I revise my crypto systems.  The old 2 subsystems used all time highs as entry points for all cryptos with lots of degrees of freedom on crypto selection.  They have the same problems as the all time high stock system I eliminated.  Instead I design one system to trade only a select few highly liquid “crypto majors” (bitcoin, Ethereum, etc) and let the system pick from the strongest trending of these cryptos as well as when it will be out of the market.  This is very similar to most of my other subsystems which have as part of their rules when to be on the sidelines or which instrument to be long/short based on trend strength.  In addition, I modulate the position size based on drawdown.  In back testing this seems to significantly improve CAGR/max draw down.  Currently I am out of cryptos but I will continue trading if/when the system signals an entry.

Ed, thank you for your feedback!
Thank you for sharing your process - and for sending me your Trading Tribe Information Document for posting to the Trading Tribe Directory.

You might consider taking your feelings about <leading a Tribe> to Tribe as an entry point.



Butterflies

can have a positive intention,
namely: risk control.

https://twitter.com/hermusicx/status/786667101822001152


Mar 2, 2018

The Next Greatest Trader

Dear Ed!

I'm next greatest trader.

I feel that I found what I was born to do. It's been 10 months of studying, reading, trading, learning non stop.

I'm obsessed. I workout harder, sleep better, study deeper, meditative almost all day long, dreaming more lucid than ever.

I'm beating guys that been doing it for years and showed me very little basics of trading. They think it's beginners luck. Obviously jealous. But luck is for mediocres.

Im lucky i was born to become one of the superior traders! I'm obsessed. I've come all the way from the slums up where I am and tried different paths.

In all my occupation experiences I've never felt so obsessed. And it isn't money that drives me. Markets and trading turned into a mirror for me where I finally started seeing myself. It's a path and journey to find my great self in the great mirror of markets!

I'm not looking for advices  or secret trading ingredients. Just letting the world know that I'm here.

Peace!
Thank you for sharing your proclamation with me.

You might consider taking your feelings about <invincibility> to Tribe as an entry point.


You can find a lot of old traders.

You can find a lot of bold traders.

You can't find many old, bold traders.

https://womenofvirtueandstrength.weebly.com/pride 

Mar 2, 2018

The Fed and Control

Ed,

According to a recent article a prominent trader claims that the Fed cannot hold the bond market together much longer.  

It must simultaneously confront (1) an asset bubble in equities, (2) depreciation of the dollar and (3) impending inflation in commodities.  

How does this fit with you thinking in Govopoly?
Thank you for raising this issue.

I do not make fundamental predictions of short-term price moves.

Long-term, the I find the author's analysis consistent with my thesis in Govopoly in the 39th Day: commodities up; bonds down; volatility up.

Short term and long term, you might consider trend following with active risk management.
Mar 1, 2018

Govopoly Site Not Working

I bought both the Govopoly book and the Trading Tribe book. I then went to use the www.govopoly.com for trading simulators but the website is problematic and it downloads  programs. Can you tell me if there is another option?
I originally write the Govopoly models and the trading simulator as Java Applets

Java Applets no longer work on many popular browsers.  

I plan to bring the applications in line with current conventions.
Mar 1, 2018

Wants to Help Villagers

Hi Ed,

Over the last two years I have been traveling back and forth to the Lopit region in South Sudan. Through my company [name] we have been working to help rebuild and improve the lives of the local villagers from years of war and famine as well as protect their land and natural resources for the future.

Our aim is to implement sustainable technology, and provide education in its use to improve these communities.

I am emailing you as I have been using trading and investing to help increase the amount of funds we have available to run these projects.

I greatly admire you and the incredible success you have had investing over the years. I am reaching out to you to see if you would be willing to teach and guide me into becoming a better investor so we can have a greater impact with the returns from our investments.

Thank you in advance for your any advice, guidance, training opportunities you are willing to share!
Thank you for reaching out to me.

You might consider defining the method by which you measure the "impact" you have with your work.


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