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Mar 20, 2014

On Anger Management

Hi Ed,

I read Trading Tribe and it reminded me of struggles I've gone through regarding emotions and how I converged on similar, but a less well-developed, framework for dealing with them.

One emotion I particularly struggle with is anger and I believe that is because of my preconceived notions that "feeling anger is bad." The judgement is a combination of misunderstanding religious teachings and also constantly being told as a child it's a bad thing to feel.

However, a year and a half ago I started to explore emotions and realize we can't control what we feel. What we can control, and I think something people misinterpret, is how we react on those emotions.

My anger at work spilled into forms - some of which involved picking at my eyebrow hair (I have very prominent eyebrows). Another was constantly being tense, and very easy to get upset. My relationship with my girlfriend was failing and I wasn't happy.

Eventually I snapped. During Hurricane Sandy I had to commute 2 hours each way into our disaster office, my friend's brother committed suicide so I was en route to the funeral, and my girlfriend broke up with me.

I reacted by feeling a ton of anger, sadness, rejection, and then resolve. Only when I went through multiple layers of emotions and experienced my forms (crying, yelling) was I determined with a new resolve. Within a week I had a new job and was much happier. The new job didn't make me happy, the happiness created the new job.

I believe emotions are here to give us messages, like a mail courier would with mail. When we reject the message the emotion starts getting louder and louder to get our attention (drama). Only when it delivers the letter does it quiet down and go away.

As I study religion, I understand with a deeper sense what role anger truly plays. I believe we are often mistaught in both eastern and western religion. For ex., James 1:19 states, "My dear brothers and sisters, take note of this: Everyone should be quick to listen, slow to speak and slow to become angry,"

Note the scripture does not say "do not become angry" it says be slow to become angry. It doesn't say feeling angry is wrong. I believe it expresses that we must be thoughtful and understanding before we outwardly express anger or act on that anger. Feeling angry is a method for being thoughtfully angry.

In my experience what dissipates anger, is feeling the anger and accepting its message. Even looking at religious history, leaders often would fight and speak against injustices, which may have been a message delivered by anger. Accepting the message from anger does not mean you are still feeling angry - in fact I notice the opposite.

When we ignore emotion, we ignore what our body is warning us or telling us to do. And in my experiences, TT is absolutely correct when the book states emotions comes in other physical forms.


Thank you for sharing your process and insights and for raising this issue.

Anger generally associates with boundary penetration - and serves as a signal to motivate repair.

In the TTP Rocks process we draw a distinction between (1) feelings (such as anger) and (2) our responses to our feelings. We notice we have options about how to respond to our feelings and practice these response options with role playing.

For example, people may respond to their feelings of anger in various ways depending on childhood modeling: shutting down; yelling; threatening; using physical violence; complaining; invalidating the other person. We call these responses "medicinal responses."

People who dislike their feelings and don't understand their positive intentions typically blur the distinction between feelings and responses.

People who dislike anger typically employ medicinal responses, have poor boundary management, bottle up their feelings, eventually act in violent ways, routinely disrespect other people's private property and admonish others to not get angry.

On a societal level, as the Govopoly System assimilates the Free Competition sector, the anti-anger philosophy proliferates. De-angrification supports violation of private property.

In the TTP Rocks Process, the TTP Heart Rock links feelings to sharing them with others and to listening to others' feelings. We call this response a "pro-active" response.

In role playing, and in life, using the Heart Rock generally has a delightful side-effect of socializing the other guy into a peaceful, open-to-negotiation attitude.

Of course, in case of a thief breaking and entering your home at night and threatening your family, you might like to use the Texas Response to Invader Method (TRIM): bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, click, [reload], bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, click, and then ask questions while you call the sheriff and reload again.

For more on the Rocks Process, download the free pamphlet, TTP Extensions, or order a hard copy at

Laser Perimeter Monitoring System

When someone
violates the boundary

it gets "angry"
and shares that feeling
with the rest of the system.

The response depends
on the system design.

Mar 20 , 2014

Free Lunch


I confess, my original intentions were for my wife and I to take you and your wife out for lunch, however in the least I hope to have made you smile.

Would love to meet you someday. I went to a trading seminar a few years ago that was put on by two gentleman from Texas.

My wife and I were blown away by the hospitality that we were shown and so we've become friends and plan to visit them the first week of April in the woodlands. Thanks for your reply.

Thank you for your kind invitation.

I don't want to miss out so I guess I better get busy and find a wife.

Comes With a Free Meal

Mar 20, 2014

The A and B of Raising Funds

Dear Ed,

In a Tribe meeting you say:

"You might carry around the idea that (A) 'everyone I meet wants to invest in my fund and help me find investors'; or, (B) 'everyone I meet wants to reject me and my fund.' The idea you put out there is the one that comes true."

Some days I carry around (A), and other days (B).

I wonder what strategies I might use to put out idea (A) more consistently.


Thank you for raising this issue.

You might consider taking your feelings about <raising funds> to Tribe.

Mar 20, 2014

Intimacy-Centric Model in Action
(see previous)


Good morning.

I attach a photo of myself and my son having fun with pancakes on our heads. We make the pancakes together and both really enjoy some Dad and son bonding time. My son suggests you might consider sharing this picture on FAQ. I too am happy for you to share our pancake fun on FAQ.

Whilst I write this e-mail it dawns on me that one positive intention of my anger is too encourage me to revaluate my boundaries.

A big thank you from both of us for encouraging us to have some fun with food.

Father and Son

with matching headgear.

Thank you for sharing your process and the photo.

Mar 19, 2014

Most Smiling Face and Tops in Exams

Dear Ed,

Sometime back you had posted your and your daughter's picture. Your daughter looks very beautiful. And you look very wise!

Today my daughter informed me that she won the most smiling face in her final year college event. It is a farewell event for the final year students. She is also usually a topper in her exams. I feel very good for both of us. I feel like sending you her picture.

Your guidance has helped me become a better father and my children have noticed the difference. They know about you.

Your message I = R is helping me like anything. Thinking more about your messages on FAQs, I realize there is so much to learn.

I have ego somewhere and have realized my need to feel it and remove it by becoming rational and wise.

Thanks for continuously guiding us.

With regards


Thank you for sharing your process, the photo of your daughter and for committing to right parenting.

Mar 18, 2014

Dreaming and Healing


I dream this morning:

I meet with my Tribe. We wear identical outfits of a light lavender, and we seem to move fluidly, like a dance troupe.

We work on the issues of a male member who is very shy and hesitates to initiate conversations with women.

As we complete the process, someone says, "Let's go to the airport!" as if we will follow our Hotseat there and watch him practice talking to women. I say, "Yes, let's go, he's a lot more fun now!"

We flow and dance out the door into a complex urban scene, filled with noise and activity. I soon find myself separated from the other Tribe members and, after a brief moment of anxiety, I pull out my cellphone to call Ed. The phone is an old flip phone and it does not work.

I awake feeling a desire to complete the FAQ submission that dances around in my head since my surgery for a broken hip one week ago.

Nine days ago I accidentally break my hip while on a brief ski trip. Today I find myself in the rehab wing of a skilled nursing facility 600 miles from my home.

My recent unexpected cancer treatment prepares me somewhat for being in the moment and staying connected to my body. Now I can learn on an even more advanced level what it means to stay in the present moment.

I need help with activities that I never give a moment's thought to previously. Do you know that there is a piece of equipment that allows you to put on your socks without bending over? (I attach a photo).

At first I feel devastation, depression, anger and great fear. I weep in the arms of compassionate nurses. Pain traps me in a corner from which I fear I will never find an exit.

I firmly believe that the past year, during which I immerse myself in learning about TTP and have the good fortune to attend a Tribe series, prepares me, as well as I could hope for, to deal with the challenges of my new situation.

I feel comfort in knowing that the FAQ community will share these words with me, and that they may feel the same connection that I feel when I read their words.

Thank you all for being there.

Sock Putter-Onner

Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider imagining your existence as all the elements of your dream: the lavender outfits; the dance troupe; the shy male member; the airport; the cellphone; etc.

You might also consider imagining if you might like to include any of the properties of these elements into your normal response system.

Mar 18, 2014



You might enjoy this painting of an optimist.



Thank you for the image.

I wonder if you can tell m the source so I can make proper attribution.

Mar 18, 2014

The Economist: The NEW Age of Crony Capitalism


I observe the cover of March 15th Issue of "The Economist" at the new-stand, and I recall thinking about You and your book.

Good feelings reverberate. EmojiEmojiEmojiEmojiEmoji Kudos to you!

The week-cover show three individuals masked as some kind of other animals.
From the left side I can spot a hippo, comfy seated on a chair and holding, on his right hand, a burning cigar.

Standing in the middle of the cover, is a lupus, appearing with a Capri Blue and Traffic Yellow pochette with a red tie. His left hand is in his pocket.

Scouting right, with his arms crossed, comes the alligator. He wears a business suit blended with a green tie.

They are all standing in front of a mixed stash of bank notes: some Federal Reserve Notes picturing Benjamin Franklin, some Mahatma Gandhi series ones and possibly some Russian roubles.

I feel that, at the current rate of printing [from global banks], this stash may turn out to be change.


Thank you for sharing your insights.

Mar 16, 2014

Tribe Meeting Report: Dealing With Feelings of Trading

Hi Chief,

We have a TT meeting on March 4, 2014. This is the 1st of a series of 4 meetings and the start of the second series of the year in our local tribe. We have two new members joining the tribe, and one old member leaves for foreign country. We have four members in today's meeting. We do some receive and sending practice before the start of the meeting.

I check in my issue about the feelings of the portfolio heat. I start build long position from end of last year and recently I find I am long nearly all markets. I start to feel hesitation when adding more positions, even my system says so. I am using a simple long term trend following system and some risk management technique. I also feel fear of dollar amount of the risk I take, even though I am taking only 1% risk of total capital. I am trading my own and a friend's money and I am ahead. I feel I am spoiled by recent momentary success and start to fear future drawdowns.

For there are new members in the tribe, I volunteer to be on hot seat and show a example on how the process goes.

Tribe get me into forms and I start to experience the fear. I rub my face, scrunch my shoulder, bend over and do something I don't remember now. Tribe members encourage me to do more. I feel support from the tribe and the new members. I start to experience the fear of placing trades, I feel pain in my chest like a claw grasping and squeezing my heart, I also feel heavy load on my shoulder, arms and back. I follow the feeling of the heavy load.

I start to see my mom, not very clear, and then recall once when I was young (maybe 6,7 year old), I am carrying some eggs in my hand in the school, with her and my sister. I start to juggle the eggs and one egg hits the ground and broke. My mom immediately slaps me and blames me. I also recall in another occasion, I am carrying a pile of books and walking in the street. I am helping my aunt to move her stuff, together with my cousins. I feel so heavy and can't catch up with them. Eventually I drop the books on the ground and my aunt turns around and asks me why I am so clumsy. I feel unworthy, and ashamed in front of my cousins.

We start to role play the situations. The mom asks me to give eggs to other kids, I feel hurt, unworthy. I receive the rock of shutting down.

After several time repeating the old drama. I tell the process manager I want to forgive the the rock and get new resource. We do so and restart the role play again. This time when my mom slaps me, I immediately tell her I feel scared, I feel hurt on my face. I really feel hurt. I then ask my mom how she feels. She tells me she feels angry. I then ask her to tell me more. Later she tell me she feel OK and tell me that the eggs is not toy. I tell her that I feel I am reckless, immature, and I want to be more careful now.

Then we play the carrying book situation. When I feel I am falling behind, I ask my aunt to to stop. I say "Excuse me, aunt, I want to take a break, I am tired". My aunt stops and turns around and looks very impatient. She tells me that we are late, I ask her how she feels, she tell me that she is feeling angry for I slow them down. She feels hurry. I ask her to tell me more. She tells me she feel disappointed. The cousins also join to blame me. I tell them I feel embarrassed and tired. I ask aunt how she is feeling, she tells me she is feeling frustrated and fear to be late. I ask her where she feels it, she tells me she feels it in her chest and back. I ask her more about it. Then I share with her that I feel really tired and I am afraid if I don't take a break, I might drop the books. She later agrees and we take a short break.

During the check out, my cousin share with the tribe that when he sees me falling behind and acting very weak and clumsy, he can't help himself and wants to tease me and be mean to me. He says he feel surprised to do so for usually he is a soft, polite person, and he rarely wants to be a bully. He recalls that the only similar situation in his life is when he is with his cousin, who also has a victim look and he has been mean to him. And this is the only situation in his life where he feels himself being sarcastic, bully to other kids or person.

I thank him for sharing such important process with me and share that the rock process many times serves as a hot seat for all members, not only the person literally on hot seat. It triggers all kinds of reminiscences. and insights. And this is the dynamics of Rock Process.

The member who plays my mom also share with the tribe that he experiences all kinds of feelings, from feeling fear of being late, angry, frustrated, and even sadness. He tell me that he feels much closer to me when seeing me has the same issue with him. He also shares that when I call him to stop and wait and tells him my feelings, he realizes that I might be trying to impress him by carrying more book than I can.

This gives me another inspiration, and I ask for another role play before I actually check out my role. The tribe agrees. and start picking up books. Right before we are about to take off, I tell my aunt that I am feeling worried that I might be carrying too many books and I am afraid that I might slow them down or drop them. I give some books to my cousin. This round of play helps me to push my process to a higher level of benefit and learn to share feeling as early as possible and prevent drama from even getting started. I thank the member for his inspiration.

Then I release each member from his role and we do the final check out. I really appreciate the new member's help and I am glad to see that they pick up the process quickly and start giving me help and inspiration. I thank the PM for managing my process. New members share that they are looking forward to next meeting and I share my appreciation and wanting to help them on their hot seat.

I also share with the tribe that I start to see the follow up after each TT meeting is as important as the meeting itself. The process doesn't finish until I finish my update to the tribe of my progress in real-time application and finish my tribe report.

I notice something interesting happening during the days after that:

1. During few days immediately after the TT meeting, I feel more tired than usual. But I find myself working very hard on everything, work, trading etc. Usually when I am tired, I lay back and relax, and I need to struggle to get to do things when I feel exhausted. But this time my body is like machine and proactively doing a lot of work, or unconsciously seeking works to do. Indeed, I have to use my conscious mind to warn myself to slow down and take care my health.

2. My trading decisions become care free again, and I take predefined risk without secondary thoughts. I am more focused on finding next big opportunity than worrying about possible consequence of drawdowns.

3. In the office, I involve more working directly with the VP and managers recently and I feel easy and no longer nervous or feel pressure. I share my feeling promptly in several occasion and turn things into my favor and I get to know more how they feel.

4. I start to have an unusual feeling of detachment of how I feel and what I do. I feel there are two planes in my life going in parallel, one of them is flowing of feelings and the other is my actions. I encounter quite a few negative feelings in various situations after the TT meeting, but I find myself taking action automatically on the right side and making lots of progress on
taking care family, work and trading. Such separation is a cool feeling I never had in my life, and I feel I hit jackpot. I know it's new and not stable, but it's really something precious.

This makes me feel more that the Rock Process helps me naturally automatically do right things without thinking. I feel I want to do more meetings and get more.


Thank you for sharing your process and for documenting your meeting.

Congratulations on your progress !

Mar 16, 2014

Tribe Meeting Report: Expressing Feelings

Hi Chief,

We have a TT meeting on Wed. Feb 5. We have 3 members in this local tribe meeting.

During the check in, one member reports his progress after his last meeting hot seat session.

He reports that he just get one big client and even get a business loan offer. He also finds an office to start on his own.

Another member reports that he focuses more on his work in the office and is making progress.

I also relate myself with similar feelings, now I focus solely on my job when I am in the office, and don't usually think about my trading at work.

I also make good progress on my job and trading. I spend less than 10 minutes a day for trading the markets, and am doing much better than before.

I also report that recently I naturally start improving my back testing and platform and feel very calm and enjoy such programming, doing a bit every day and make steady progress.

When report problem, I say that I notice one issue. I find that I am still not comfortable with sharing feeling in the office. I feel resistance to speak "how are you feeling?".

This is the last meeting of the season, and also the last meeting of one of our members. He is moving to foreign country for over a year and this can be his farewell meeting. He brings up an issue that he notices that he tends to analyze his wife's feeling when she is emotional. He usually finds some logic explanation for his wife and use it to comfort her. He tells us a recent story when he has a phone conversation with his wife. Their mutual friends has a temper tantrum in front of her, and she is scared and very unhappy about it. He listens to her and analyze why the friend is angry and she shutdown. He recounts this incident and feel frustrated for he is not receiving feeling.

We role play this incidents and tribe has a little discussion of what problem we are facing here. Eventually it becomes clear that what the member brings up is a very common issue, that's what you need to do when somebody in front of you becomes emotional. All the member identify themselves that we all try to do things to stop the emotional person from experience the feelings, by analyze, arguing retort, or just leave. I identify my self the same issue, which you point out for me in the past FAQ about the entry point of "wife getting emotional".

We then help the member get into forms, he bends over, pressing hands on his face, his head. We help him to explore more the feeling he has when his wife is emotional. He later tells us he feel squeeze on his skull. We help him to explore that squeezing feeling.

After we freeze him and he starts to see a face. Then he realizes it's the face of the mom of his childhood friend. They are his neighbors. We help him to recall what the mom does to him.

He recalls that when he was a little boy, once he is in their house and talk to the boy. They share what they want to be when grow up. The boy tells him that he wants to be Santa, he tells him " you can't be Santa".

The neighbor's mom immediately steps forward to the hot seat member and yells at him, "You can't tell my son what he can be and what he can't, he can be whoever he wants to be". The member is scared and immediately takes off and get out of the neighbor's house.

Each member identifies himself with similar feeling of being shocked by other peoples' sudden outburst of rage, and the similar automatic response pattern of shutting down, escape and arguing. This are the 3 rocks we work on.

We then have a break and eat dinner. During the break, we all realize that the member brings up probably the most precious entry point for all of us. Everybody feels that we are having a great Rock Process ever in today's meeting. Yes we are.

Then we start to role play. Of course, I play the yelling lady. I am quite ready for the role and since this is the last meeting for this member, I want to do a good job on yelling at him to make sure bring him back to his childhood experience. The boys asks each other what they want to do when they grow up, when the member says "you can't be Santa", I throw a pile of paper plate and yell at the top of my lungs. He looks terrified and takes off. We replay this for couple times and then donate the three rocks to the member. Then we play more times. The member seems to like the three rocks.

We conduct fore-giving later and the HS gives back the three rocks. I ask the other member if he wants to play surrogate and the member agrees. Then the HS switch role to become the neighbor's son and the other member play the HS. After the two boys start conversation, I am expecting that, after getting to the time I yell at the surrogate, the surrogate might ask me how I feel and he might also share with me how he feels.

So the drama starts, the neighbor boy says he wants to be the Santa. And the surrogate says, "Great, that's a good idea". I stand there , petrified and surprised. What a ultimate TTP response! I feel I am out of the picture and plays no role in the drama, or no drama at all! I feel amazed by the neat response and start to laugh, all member cheers.

Then the surrogate tells us he wants to play another option. I wonder what it is. When I yell at him, he tells me that if my son can be the Santa, there will be two Santa. I feel mad about this for I don't know how to prove I am right, I feel embarrassed by losing debate to a young boy. I start to ask my son to go upstairs to do home work and ask the surrogate to go home. He doesn't comply and keep proving that I am wrong. I can't argue for maybe I am wrong, but I really hate this nuisance kid and want to get him out of my house. I call his mom and ask her to take him back.

We start to realize the surrogate member's intention and starts to like this exploration of two extremes of control-centric and intimacy-centric situation. The HS says the surrogate extend his arguing nature and show us where it leads the situation to.

We then deliver the heart rock and the HS start to practice play the new resource in role plays. We finish several more round of plays to let him get used to his new tools.

During the checkout, we all thank the HS for bringing up a issue common to all members. And I appreciate the surrogate member's creativity to explore control-centric and intimacy-centric relating. It's really a great meeting and I benefit a lot from this process.

We realize that follow up after each TT meeting is as important as the meeting itself. The process don't end until members update each other what happens after each meeting, capturing the incidences of the new rock coming in play in their life.

One member calls me the next day and tells me that he decide to use iPad to note what's happening to him after each meeting.

I also notice the following happen:

1. I send a e-mail to my manager and the VP and thank them to support me.

2. I ask my coworker how he feels, when we have a technical issue pending for a while. He tells me that he is feeling frustration and asks me how I feel. I tell him I feel out of rope. We then work together and solved the problem. I mention it in my check in of the TT meeting that I have an obstacle to ask how people feel in the work place. And now I notice that it just slips off my tongue and I feel a little thrill in my chest when I ask him how he feels. It's cool feeling.

3. My son refuse to play piano, I notice I vacillate between control-centric and intimacy-centric ways, eventually we start wrestling, pillow fight and tickling, and he practices very well after.

Few days later, the HS update me with following information:

"I have found that when I reach a situation where I may have a negative encounter I grab my heart rock and asking why I'm afraid or uncomfortable instead of doing something else to distract me."

We have new members coming in and we are starting another series soon.


Thank you for sharing your process and for documenting your meeting.

Mar 16, 2014

83-Year-Old Horowitz Playing Chopin's A-flat Polonaise


Thank you for the link.

Mar 16, 2014

Forms, Teaching and Systems


I drop out of school to start two companies.

In one, we teach students how to code through an immersive program. We call it boot camp and a revolution.

In the other, we design games that trigger parts of our brain [cognition] and eventually, organically, modify collective behavior. There is a concept we name play funding which consists of designing a system (API and SDK) that lets gamers make the choice of playing to help. We create a short video to explain the concept.

I am deeply impacted by the Trading Tribe Process. In the cartography of the mind [extensions], you mention the pro-active system that enhances rocks processing. I resonate with it and find it inspiring.

I want to talk to you about forms, teaching and systems. Through gaming, forms can be released as the state of being is total immersion. I wonder if you accept calls.

Thank you for raising these issues.

I accept questions and comments through this site, for free.

I also accept calls, mostly from bluegrass musicians.

So Far, No Calls From

Bela Fleck

Mar 16, 2014

TTP Workshop


Any TTP workshop in 2014 or 2015?


Thank you for raising this issue.

I generally schedule workshops when I sense interest from contributors to FAQ.

Mar 15, 2014

Challenging for Trend Followers

Hi Ed

I hope all is going well despite probably more challenging "trend-follower" times.

I continue to work passionately on my trading systems and hope I can finally get to meet you soon in Texas at one of your workshops ;)

Kindly keep me posted.

Kind regards,

Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider the possibility of prices increasing as a series of volatile price bubbles.

For more on how to address this possibility, see the trading sections in my book, Govopoly.

April 2014 Live Hogs

One Good Trend
pays for 'em all.

Mar 14, 2014

Likes Govopoly

Hello Ed,

I can't thank you enough for writing Govopoly. It came along at exactly the write time in my life providing insight into unexpected areas. The book has fueled so much afterthought and self awareness and curiosity.

I will surely revisit Govopoly again...I wish it was twice as long but in reality it was the perfect size...

It seems a foregone conclusion that I must now order Trading Tribe. Can you direct me how to make that happen? If you have my information on file from my Govopoly purchase all the same information can be used for billing and shipping.

Thanks again for this life changing work...I will never forget reading it for the first time


Thank you for your support.

Mar 14, 2014

Exponential Growth


I share this graph of the chloride concentration of Lake Meredith in the Texas Panhandle:

The concentration level seems to be following the exponential function as the remaining water is evaporated and as the chloride remains it is "evapo-concentrated".

Now, I also know that if Lake Meredith experiences a large-rainfall runoff event, or a multi-year series of normal rainfall, then the concentration is going to fall to nearer the red line.

The graph might then mimic many of the historical price bubbles that have experienced.

This all leads me to speculate that this process is inherent in nature and not a flaw of crowd behavior.

And so, we should not be trying to correct bubbles, but rather we should just embrace them like we do sunshine, snow, rain, fog, etc.


Thank you for sending me the chart and your theory.

I wonder if you can identify a positive feedback loop that links the chloride concentration to other factors that link back to reinforce concentration.

The existence of such a loop can provide additional evidence that you have a real exponential "bubble" process, rather than a response to some underlying singular event.

Mar 14, 2014



Will you be attending the CTA Expo in NY?

I have no plans to attend.

Mar 14, 2014

Happy 0-th Birthday

Ed and Friends,

I am glad to announce the safe arrival of our lovely child.

Thanks and Regards.

Friday 14-Mar-2014.

2.96 Kg and 50cm

Thank you for sharing this blessed event.

Congratulations !
Mar 14, 2014

Govopoly in Action: Interview With Lobster Eater

Thank you for the link.

Mar 13, 2014

Flash Crash Exposure

Hello Ed,

This question pertains to the exponential average crossover system. Cutting to the chase, the system buys 6500 units at a price of 119.535. So that is $773k of notional exposure vs $100k of risk capital or 7.7/1 leverage. So essentially a 13% correction and the capital is wiped out (assuming I understand the things correctly).

I don't understand how you can run these models consistently with 7x or more leverage and not wipe out occasionally. One flash crash would shut the system down. Maybe that is why the system only risks 10% of the capital? Also, any correction would likely reduce position size so the system's effectiveness is reduced unless it trends the right way quickly. Trying to include a hard stop loss would undermine the system's intent (not to mention making the programming a lot more difficult). I am generally just seeking guidance/thoughts on how to contend with these issues. Perhaps it simply is what it is and these are the risks but wanted clarity. Any thoughts would be appreciated.


Thanks for the response and for posting all of the great material online. The URL is here:

"On 8/31 the ATR is 3.115. The ATR Multiplier is 5 so the Risk_Per_Lot is 5 * 3.115 = 15.575. On 8/31 the Equity is 1,000,000 and the Heat (for the entire run) is 10% so the Risk_Budget is 10% of 1,000,000 or $100,000. The Position_Size, then, is 100,000 / 15.575 = 6420.545+ and rounding to the nearest 250, we get 6500 units."

I was reading through the risk management section and think this level of risk may be a combination of a toned down "almost certain death strategy" and "diversification". URL for the risk material is here:

"Likewise, a portfolio manager might divide his equity into various sub-accounts. He might then risk 100% of each sub account, thinking that while he might lose many of them, a few would win enough so the overall expected value would maximize. This, the principle of DIVERSIFICATION, works in cases where the individual payoffs are high."


I define notional exposure as the actual dollar value of the S&P contract controlled. I believe the notional exposure of the position would be 26 contracts * 250 multiplier * 119 index value which would get the $773k of S&P exposure (technically 119.535 index value so $776.9k) which compares to risk capital of $102k. If this is correct then a move down of a little over 13% in the S&P contract would wipe out the 102k of risk capital.

Having witnessed things like the flash crash and such in recent years I am concerned the risk capital could actually get wiped out (or position size could definitely be reduced due to margin calls) on intraday moves if the trend doesn't materialize quickly. Ultimately I'd like to make sure I understand the dynamics correctly and to see if you have thoughts on how traders with less capital could proceed without high risk of wiping out. Not sure if there is a smaller capitalization approach? It certainly seems the optimal risk approaches don't really work when capitalization is low.

Thank you,

Thank you for raising these issues.

Typically, trend-following traders figure their stops first, then their risk per contract.

Then they divide their risk budget (say, a half percent of equity) by the risk per contract to determine the number of contracts.

In this way, if they stop out, they lose somewhere around their risk budget.

The same principle applies, for higher heat values, say from risking 1%, 2% or even 25% of your equity. Of course, such high-risk systems generally entrain a lot of volatility.

In futures trading, you don't normally consider the value of the contract; you consider the value of the risk.

For more on trading styles and risk management, see my chapters on trading in Govopoly.

With Proper Risk Management

the flash crash
of May 6, 2010

looks pretty much
like just another day.


Mar 13, 2014



I am sure you get this exact message plenty of times a day, but I just wanted to say how much I appreciate your expertise and have always looked up to your trading and management methods.

You have been one of my main influences on becoming a trader and still refer to your knowledge for guidance.

Thank you
Thank you for sharing your process and for acknowledging me.

Mar 13, 2014

What to Do: Read Reminiscences


Regarding the young lady from Italy, "really interested about this word financial." I recommend she read, "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator." Please share my e-mail should she need help. The second paragraph's sentence says everything. I had to re-read it a few times to get it.

Thank you for sharing your insight.

Mar 12, 2014

Wants an Autograph

Dear Mr. Ed!

Please forgive me for wasting Your valuable time.

At the beginning I want to thank You for... here I could write and write a lot.

I just wanna say: THANK YOU.

I'll just say that a few years ago, when I have started my adult life, I discovered Your way of thinking, perception of the trading and life.
The interview in 'Market Wizards' and Your research, thoughts at the TT, caused that my perception of the world, life, relationships with people has incredible changed. And it is constantly evolving.

I regret that today I do not have the possibility to meet You personally, to talk with You. Maybe someday, the distance will not be a problem for me.

Now, I would like to ask only, if it would not be a big problem for You to give me an autograph. Autograph in Your new book - "Govopoly". Before ordering it, I thought that I could ask You for it...

Would it be possible?

Thank you very much!

Greetings from Poland!

Thank you for sharing your process.

You may request an autograph while you place your order.

Mar 12, 2014

Noticing Feelings

Dear Ed,

I am in a dinner meeting I start noticing my feelings. Somewhere down there, there is ego. I notice it and realize that it's not rational.

After the meeting I feel that feeling again. It has direct connection with my scoring best marks in school. Scoring 96% in my 10th Maths exam.

Over there it was may be OK. No, over there also it's not OK.

In the world there r so many smart people from whom I can learn.

I also notice that I start hating people who lie. I do not know where this feeling comes from and where is the direct connection.

Noticing feelings help me feel them. I also notice that in past I am not aware of these feelings.

I hope I have been sending you emails in SVO-p way.

This helps me many times stay in the present moment of now.

Thank you v much,

lots of regards,

Thank you for sharing your process.

Mar 11, 2014

Govopoly in Action: NJ Motor Vehicle Commission on Tesla

Hi Ed,

Govopoly in action! NJ approves proposal that would force Tesla to sell its cars through traditional dealerships, under the guise that this will "protect consumers." From Bloomberg News:

Tesla should either change its business model to conform with New Jersey law or seek changes to it, said James Appleton, president of the state's dealer association.

New Jersey's "statute is on the books to protect consumers," he said, while "Tesla's business model crushes competition."

Thank you for the heads-up.

I wonder how you feel about these developments.

Mar 11, 2014

Digesting Govopoly


I just finish reading "Govopoly" and I really enjoy reading it.

I find it difficult to stop reading and I feel it is because you "keep revising it until the writing looks spontaneous."

I sense that a Banjo enthusiast has arranged and orchestrated the book in a very careful and subtle manner. Whenever I find a statement in a chapter which I feel requires further evidence, explanation or "proof" I don't have to wait long because there comes the next chapter which revisits any open item
from the previous chapter.

I realize that you provide the hockey stick explanation for the meaning of the 39th day on page 39 - and I wonder if this is by accident, magic or as a result of keeping revising your book...?

Ed, thank you for writing this book.

I feel I need some more time to digest its many facets and comprehend your work. Personally, your new book supports me to extend my trading from a single instrument to a more diversified strategy.

Best regards

Thank you for your feedback and support.

Mar 11, 2014

A TSP Suggestions


Ticker "QQQQ" is mentioned on web page:

That ticker changed to "QQQ" in 2011:

Someone wishing to "trade the S&P cash chart in various ways" might first look at the "SPY" S&P 500 ETF instead of the "QQQ" NASDAQ 100 Trust.

I see you in a couple of weeks at the 1st Austin Tribe meeting of 2014.

Thank you for your suggestion.
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